the snap general election thread

A_Medium_Size_Jock

And so to the vote:
522 to 13!
Decisive.

westernpromise

The turkeys have voted for Christmas.

But will Jezzer quit after he loses?

antrobus

davomcdave wrote: »

I do wonder whether Labour support is significantly overstated in the polls.....

Well it was last time round.:)

Of course, if polls showing a 21 point Con lead include a "significantly overstated" level of Labour support, they really are stuffed.

antrobus

Electoral Calculus have a prediction. Conservative majority 134; based on 44.2% to 24.5% vote share. (Well that is what the polls are saying.) A 79% chance of a Conservative majority.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The bookies seem to have the Cons at between 1/12 and 1/20.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

If John McDonnell really believes that Labour will form the next government, he could make a small fortune by putting some money down on Labour at 12/1.:)

mayonnaise

vivatifosi wrote: »

Why wouldn't you hold a debate when your competitors are so lacklustre?

That's an easy one.

May rules out TV debate because her voters only like the wireless

She continued: “I’ve no interest whatsoever in reaching out to the young, or the middle-aged, or anyone capable of higher cognitive functions like changing the channel.

“No, the voters I want are those who shuffle around suburban homes imagining they’re manning a fortress of English values besieged by immigrant hordes.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/media/may-rules-out-tv-debate-because-her-voters-only-like-the-wireless-20170419126280

antrobus

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

And so to the vote:
522 to 13!
Decisive.

According to the BBC these are the thirteen;

Nine Labour MPs:

1. Ronnie Campbell
2. Ann Clwyd
3. Paul Farrelly
4. Jim Fitzpatrick
5. Clive Lewis
6. Fiona Mactaggart
7. Liz McInnes
8. Dennis Skinner
9. Graham Stringer

Three Independent MPs:

1. Lady Sylvia Hermon
2. Natalie McGarry (suspended SNP)
3. Michelle Thomson (suspended SNP)

One SLDP MP:

1. Dr Alasdair McDonnell

As a result I learnt two things. Dennis Skinner is still alive, and that the SNP have suspended two MPs.

By my calculations that means 107 abstentions. I'd presume that the remaining 54 SNP MPs would be amongst them, but there must be a fair few Labour MPs who haven't toed the line. (In addition to the nine named,)

Masomnia

antrobus wrote: »

Electoral Calculus have a prediction. Conservative majority 134; based on 44.2% to 24.5% vote share. (Well that is what the polls are saying.) A 79% chance of a Conservative majority.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The bookies seem to have the Cons at between 1/12 and 1/20.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

If John McDonnell really believes that Labour will form the next government, he could make a small fortune by putting some money down on Labour at 12/1.:)

Interesting. I don't think it will be quite as bad for Labour as the polls suggest, but certainly a trouncing is in the offing.

Thrugelmir

Masomnia wrote: »

Interesting. I don't think it will be quite as bad for Labour as the polls suggest, but certainly a trouncing is in the offing.

The upcoming local elections will provide a good indicator.

michaels

Will many decide not to vote with such a big tory lead and 'no doubt' about the outcome?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Will many decide not to vote with such a big tory lead and 'no doubt' about the outcome?

Polls are so unreliable.