the snap general election thread

antrobus

JP08 wrote: »

Antrobus - interesting.

Not sure which way the voting percentages will move. Gut feel is that the over 65 vote will fall back to historic GE levels (after all, they "won"), but the younger vote may feel they have something to fight for still - the few I know do seem to be more politically engaged post Ref - and hence may hold up in the 60%s, may be higher. Either that or they may be so disillusioned after the Ref that they won't bother.

I've done some work.

IPSOS-Mori show the Con-Lab split in 2015 for 18-24s as 27-43 (16 point Lab lead) and for 65+ as 47-23 (24 point Con lead). YouGov, in their most recent poll which shows overall voting intention as 44-23, has the 18-24s as 32-38, and 65+ as 61-12.

So the Labour lead amongst 18-24s has shrunk from 16 points to 6, and the Conservative lead amomgst 65+ has expanded from 24 points to 49. Of course, opinion polls are 'weighted by likelihood to vote'; perhaps that has or will change, perhaps something dramatic will happen between now and 8 June.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zs2ifb9u3g/TimesResults_170413_VI_Trackers.pdf

If the above numbers are correct, then those kind of shifts are probably more significant than any considerations over turnout.

Besides, Corbyn is in charge of the Labour Party. That's a pretty big incentive to turn up and vote Conservative in my opinion.:)

davomcdave

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Yeah Yeah, but under a fixed term parliament system, I stand by that you should not be able to call for a GE in these circumstances.
It should be immediately on the resignation of the PM, else within the fixed term timeline.

The British Constitution has worked like this since the C19th at least and probably since Walpole. The aberration is the law passed under the coalition government not May effectively asking the Queen to call an election.

What would be interesting constitutionally would be if Parliament turned her down and she asked the Queen to dissolve Parliament anyway. What's a monarch to do then?

IveSeenTheLight

davomcdave wrote: »

The British Constitution has worked like this since the C19th at least and probably since Walpole. The aberration is the law passed under the coalition government not May effectively asking the Queen to call an election.

What would be interesting constitutionally would be if Parliament turned her down and she asked the Queen to dissolve Parliament anyway. What's a monarch to do then?

Never say never and all that, but I doubt it would happen in that way.

Hypethetically, if it did, I think that the Queen would have to dissolve parliament, however I think the twist would be that as the PM would not be adhering to the constitutional process, that she should determine that the PM is not fit to lead the country as the Prime Minister.

Ironically however, that right was taken away from our monarchy with the introduction of the Fixed Term Parliament in 2011.

TrickyTree83

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Facebook and twitter have turned into Corbyn fan clubs.

Images like this popping up every 15 seconds.

http://imgur.com/a/LP5dRp

That's just the circles you run in.

Trust me. They show you what they think you want to see, there's no groundswell.

For example I see Corbyn bashing over Facebook and Twitter, but I'm aware the algorithms make it that way.

vivatifosi

Watching PMQs was interesting. Pretty much every Labour politician asking a question was asked if they were now standing by their leader, after saying on xyz date that they wouldn't.

Yvette Cooper managed to score a hit on the PM after Corbyn failed yet again.

Meanwhile, over at the Evening Standard, Osborne has announced his resignation as an MP.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

Watching PMQs was interesting. Pretty much every Labour politician asking a question was asked if they were now standing by their leader, after saying on xyz date that they wouldn't.

Yvette Cooper managed to score a hit on the PM after Corbyn failed yet again.

I do wonder whether Labour support is significantly overstated in the polls. I keep hearing Labour friends saying and Labour supporters being interviewed saying, "Of course not the Tories but Corbyn? Stuff that". Or words to that effect.

I'm listening to the debate on the General Election. Lots of fun.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

I do wonder whether Labour support is significantly overstated in the polls. I keep hearing Labour friends saying and Labour supporters being interviewed saying, "Of course not the Tories but Corbyn? Stuff that". Or words to that effect.

I'm listening to the debate on the General Election. Lots of fun.

I too suspect Labour support of being significantly overestimated - and am also watching the GE debate.
Fun indeed.

Since many will not vote Labour and would not ever vote Tory, is it remotely possible that LibDem could gain significantly?
I find that unlikely given the leadership (who is he again?) frequently appearing to be ............. shall we agree upon "a brick short"?
As for a Green, Labour LibDem alliance - well let's be honest, there would need to be significant change in stances all round and sharpish too for that to be a prospect worthy of consideration..


So perhaps the likeliest outcome will be a low turnout - amongst traditional Labour voters at least, and hence lead to increases in Tory seats.
Just how considerable these increases may turn out to be is of course the million-dollar question.

vivatifosi

Interesting to hear Anne Main making a hash of speaking. Tory MP, pro Brexit but in a remain seat (St Albans).
I wonder if she will keep her seat or whether it could be a rare swing in the other direction. Lib Dems quite strong there, esp in local govt.

Peter Lilley and Mike Penning in adjacent Tory seats seen locally as much better MPs.

kabayiri

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Bleh, nothing would surprise me any more. Labour will probbaly win if they keep tugging at the heartstrings of the "disenfranchised". Obviously learnt a bit from Boris and Nige.

The problem is that Jeremy and his mate Diane Abbott don't have a Northern accent, or any regional accent come to think.

They are part of the Islington 'Massive'.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Poll tracker and key constituency targets for the parties on the Telegraph website here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/uk-general-election-2017-poll-tracker-odds/

Not in great detail those key constituency targets but at this early stage it gives an idea at least.