the snap general election thread

davomcdave

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I too suspect Labour support of being significantly overestimated - and am also watching the GE debate.
Fun indeed.

Since many will not vote Labour and would not ever vote Tory, is it remotely possible that LibDem could gain significantly?
I find that unlikely given the leadership (who is he again?) frequently appearing to be ............. shall we agree upon "a brick short"?
As for a Green, Labour LibDem alliance - well let's be honest, there would need to be significant change in stances all round and sharpish too for that to be a prospect worthy of consideration..


So perhaps the likeliest outcome will be a low turnout - amongst traditional Labour voters at least, and hence lead to increases in Tory seats.
Just how considerable these increases may turn out to be is of course the million-dollar question.

I posted something a while back showing the lowest turnout areas are areas with entrenched Labour MPs so maybe that problem (if it is a problem, I doubt the MPs feel it is) simply gets worse.

I can't help but feel that there is a tipping point somewhere, a time when all these Ds and Es who are avowedly Labour do something with their vote. Maybe they start voting Labour again or maybe they vote for someone else but there is a landslide waiting for someone that can get a bunch of people that are currently disenfranchising themselves out to vote.

Of course there is another group of self-disenfranchising people which is the young but TBH my feeling is that it's hard for them to vote so they don't do it. They live in rented accommodation for the most part so move around a lot and may well be split between two addresses. I missed voting once when I was renting as the council hadn't managed to keep up with my most recent change of address.

davomcdave

michaels wrote: »

Will many decide not to vote with such a big tory lead and 'no doubt' about the outcome?

It'll be pretty easy to get the Tory vote out if Corbyn is the alternative I suspect!

Also, assuming the polls are correct, it would take almost half of Tory voters not to turn out for Corbyn to win. I just don't see it.

GreatApe

If someone formed a party called No Brexit what would its chances be or who would they steal votes from? Can a party even be formed with this little time remaining?

Masomnia

GreatApe wrote: »

If someone formed a party called No Brexit what would its chances be or who would they steal votes from? Can a party even be formed with this little time remaining?

I'm sure the bureaucracy will get in the way; probably have to apply for the forms, wait for those, send them off, get a response asking for further documentation etc etc

The Lib Dems will fight the election entirely on this issue, an it wouldn't surprise me if they took some London seats on the back of it.

davomcdave wrote: »

I can't help but feel that there is a tipping point somewhere, a time when all these Ds and Es who are avowedly Labour do something with their vote. Maybe they start voting Labour again or maybe they vote for someone else but there is a landslide waiting for someone that can get a bunch of people that are currently disenfranchising themselves out to vote.

Indeed they don't usually vote as no party really speaks for them, and the Brexit vote is partly down to them finally being given a voice. There was a lot of speculation that UKIP could pick up seats in the North as a result but after the recent by elections that doesn't look like it's going to happen, imho if they couldn't take Stoke then they never will take these seats.

I'm going to book the next day off work I think so I can stop up

antrobus

Masomnia wrote: »

I'm sure the bureaucracy will get in the way; probably have to apply for the forms, wait for those, send them off, get a response asking for further documentation etc etc...

I believe it to be the case that under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, if you wanted candidates to be named on ballot papers as 'No Brexit' you would need to have a 'No Brexit Party' that was registered with the Electoral Commission.

cogito

Rumours are going round that Ed Balls will stand again. Positioning himself for a shot at leadership?

Fella

"Piers Corbyn" sounds like a hideous frankenstein-like experiment to see what you get if you combine two of the worst people in Britain.

Turns out that's not far off the mark.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/jeremy-corbyns-brother-brands-bbc-evil-criticising-labour-leader/

How deluded do you have to be to believe Shy Corbynistas exist?

antrobus

YouGov have a new poll
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-24-18-19-/

The first YouGov/Times voting intention figures following Theresa May's shock calls for a snap election sees a significant increase in voting intention for the Conservatives who are up four points to 48%. Labour meanwhile are on 24% (from 23% last week), giving the Tories a 24 point lead.

If that wasn't bad enough, as far as best choice for PM is concerned, May leads Corbyn by a margin of 54% to 15%. Someone called 'Don't Know' would apparently be the public's second choice with 31%.:)

Malthusian

cogito wrote: »

Rumours are going round that Ed Balls will stand again. Positioning himself for a shot at leadership?

He couldn't lead a foxtrot.

If he does actually become Labour leader all the Tories have to do is re-broadcast the video of him sitting on his partner's face and thrusting at her to "Gangnam Style" in every Party Political Broadcast slot they have.

davomcdave

antrobus wrote: »

YouGov have a new poll
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-24-18-19-/

The first YouGov/Times voting intention figures following Theresa May's shock calls for a snap election sees a significant increase in voting intention for the Conservatives who are up four points to 48%. Labour meanwhile are on 24% (from 23% last week), giving the Tories a 24 point lead.

If that wasn't bad enough, as far as best choice for PM is concerned, May leads Corbyn by a margin of 54% to 15%. Someone called 'Don't Know' would apparently be the public's second choice with 31%.:)

Apparently fewer than half of Labour voters think Corbyn is a good leader.

This looks a lot like shooting fish in a barrel.