Electric cars

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

What about a European Gigafactory ....... ?

It's been floating around for long enough. As far back as 2016, it was going to be announced in 2017. It's still just around the corner. Will it be Germany? Will it be a lower-land-and-labour cost location?

Will it happen?

almillar

Again, you maintain that the vehicles occupy different sectors & therefore shouldn't be compared on any form of specification and then refuse to acknowledge that as there is a very close correlation on pricing it's likely that anyone considering a purchase would consider the model 3 as being in direct competition with the EVs you mention

No. I maintain that Zoe and Model 3 are very different prices, and therefore do not bear comparison. Again, for me personally, I could only afford one of them. I didn't bother comparing Zoe to a Ferrari either. I disagree that there is a very close correlation on pricing. You've said the Model 3 compares to a BMW 3 Series, I agree. A Zoe compares to neither. We're talking about an EV supermini, a small executive saloon, and, if you accept this description of the Model 3, a small excecutive saloon (sedan for the Yanks). Nobody compared Clios to 3 Series before, so why would we start now?

it's also noteworthy that dealer discounts on Zoes are widely reported to have been drastically reduced as time has passed ... unless you know different & can supply supporting evidence then a current comparison based on 'list' is the only logical approach! ...

I concur, discounts have been reduced. Renault are advertising £1,000 discounts at the mo though, and again, we need to acknowledge that there are different selling platforms here, Tesla doesn't have the same culture of pre-reg'ing cars, big finance incentives, etc that the legacy manufacturers, and their dealers have. I make no comment on which of these is better!

Have a look at the ZE50's or Soul EV's specifications, add typical extras & compare them to a basic model 30 SR+

Soul EV has no extras. Choose 1 of 3 colours. ZE50's UK pricing (and spec?) has not yet been announced, and I've been clear that I'm only talking about Zoe 1. Not once have I said that Model 3 is not good value. But the reality for me, and others I'm sure, is that it's still too expensive for me to consider. Zoe and Soul EV weren't, without me having to have any regard to list price.

this simply seems to be the latest indication of Tesla leveraging their efficiencies to drive both product affordability & desirability for competitive advantage

Great! Good news all round.

Regarding comparison of the the i-Pace & eTron, well at their prices (£70-£90k) aren't they in direct competition to Tesla's S & X models?

Yes, they are, you're right (iPace starts at £60k I believe). They're not in the same category as a Model 3 then, just like Zoe and Soul EV. And the circle is complete.

A Model 3 can be had on PCP considerably cheaper than a Leaf e+ or Niro 64 or Kona 64 now.

Please, please show me the numbers on this!

Yep, but, do you think rather than complacency it might be fear, as scaling up to serious production numbers and profitability is a big gamble ...... not that there's a medium term alternative I suppose?

Agree, Martyn, a point I've been stabbing at. Tesla are all-in on EVs. The rest are not and they have to decide how hard, and when, to hit this EV thing.

zeupater

almillar wrote: »

No. I maintain that Zoe and Model 3 are very different prices, and therefore do not bear comparison. Again, for me personally, I could only afford one of them. I didn't bother comparing Zoe to a Ferrari either. I disagree that there is a very close correlation on pricing. You've said the Model 3 compares to a BMW 3 Series, I agree. A Zoe compares to neither. We're talking about an EV supermini, a small executive saloon, and, if you accept this description of the Model 3, a small excecutive saloon (sedan for the Yanks). Nobody compared Clios to 3 Series before, so why would we start now?

..

I concur, discounts have been reduced. Renault are advertising £1,000 discounts at the mo though, and again, we need to acknowledge that there are different selling platforms here, Tesla doesn't have the same culture of pre-reg'ing cars, big finance incentives, etc that the legacy manufacturers, and their dealers have. I make no comment on which of these is better!

..

Soul EV has no extras. Choose 1 of 3 colours. ZE50's UK pricing (and spec?) has not yet been announced, and I've been clear that I'm only talking about Zoe 1. Not once have I said that Model 3 is not good value. But the reality for me, and others I'm sure, is that it's still too expensive for me to consider. Zoe and Soul EV weren't, without me having to have any regard to list price.

Yes, they are, you're right (iPace starts at £60k I believe). They're not in the same category as a Model 3 then, just like Zoe and Soul EV. And the circle is complete.

Hi

Regarding the ZE50 price & UK specifications not having been released ... it's effectively impossible to hide behind this yet again ... prices have been announced in other markets, for example in Germany (where cars are typically ~8% cheaper than the UK!) the base list prices (as officially announced 2/7/19 & reported by 'AnotherJoe' on this thread the next day!), when including the battery pack, range from €31990 to €35990, which when netting the national price differential against the exchange rate suggests £32-£36k which is pretty much spot on with the £32-£35k that has been used in this discussion and was the basis of the price differential to a TM3 SR+ being 16% to 24% ... add in a paint option for direct comparison (Arctic White @ +£650) and allow for the latest TM3 price adjustment you could be talking about a top end Zoe at ~£37k vs a TM3 at ~£41k (both before UK EV incentives are applied) so a difference of £4k, which obviously resolves to a ~10% difference but the relevant observation is that the premium for i-Pace / e-Tron / TMS etc ranges all start at ~£30k higher, which is relatively significant! ....

You need to realise that I'm not criticising your decision to buy a Renault as opposed to a Tesla, or to buy a Zoe when there was a very good deal available ... all I'm describing is that the price differential between a Zoe and Tesla puts them both in the same(ish) initial bracket for anyone looking to make a first-cut shortlist along the lines of ... "I can afford £X, what do I look at" ... as is pretty typical at the beginning of the process ...

Following on from that logic, the position you argue becomes very hard to maintain as you've already ceded that the TM3 isn't a direct competitor to the Zoe because it sits & competes in a higher vehicle market segment ... the issue is that the TM3 seems to compete on price as an EV in an ICE sector, whereas the Zoe sells at around double the competitive price in the relevant ICE sector ... effectively it's a situation where comparative sector becomes irrelevant because price becomes the driving factor ...

Now, if Renault decide that they need to react to the Zoe/TM3 price differential, they're really left with few options ... maintain market share by selling at a loss -or- significantly increase build volumes to take advantage of economies of scale -or- accept the potential for falling market position -or- put their heads in the sand in the hope that cheaper EVs from more proactive OEMs will simply go away!! ...

This is the very issue that I've been outlining in these exchanges ... it's a strategic decision for Renault to take themselves, but to continue to be successful as a volume vehicle manufacturer in a marketplace which, before long, will be dominated by EVs, they must be actively seeking to build EVs in volumes far beyond that currently achieved and to start doing so as soon as practicable considering the ultimate result of continued complacency ...

I don't consider the loss of a brand like Renault to be a desirable outcome, but considering the strategy to not build on the position they held until recently alongside EV announcements from other major legacy OEMs, it's possible that unless there's a change of mindset they will effectively become irrelevant or an easy expansion merger/takeover target for more proactive international corporates .... all eyes on China for that then, after they've developed scale and built significant cost-advantages in their home market that is! ...

HTH
Z

AdrianC

So, basically, you can get an absolute top-spec Zoe to within 10% of an entry-spec Model3?
But entry-spec to entry-spec is about a 30% difference...?

And both are still only about twice what a petrol equivalent would be.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

... What about a European Gigafactory ....... ?

Hi

I wouldn't be surprised if this was placed on the back burner for some time whilst there's focus on building scale in regions that have a (now) proven ability to deliver fully functioning facilities in a fraction of the time that would be possible in the EU or USA ... planning consent alone in most (/all?) EU countries would consume far more time than it's taken to almost finish the Shanghai plant

Then there's the access to finance - China seems to be content to throw money at Tesla for capital investment as long as the outcome is jobs, economic growth & the form of rapid positive environmental impact they're looking for. Against this, although Tesla don't seem to have any problems with raising capital, it must be very tempting for them to send a message to a number of highly critical voices & potentially disruptive practices in the major financial markets ...

If the strategy is growth over margin then what better than focus growth where there's political will ... I'd certainly support a Gigafactory in the UK and have that located pretty close to the UK's Lithium deposits, but the question revolves around whether there'd be political will to chase the investment or effectively ignore the usual sources of protest .... after-all, whatever rock you look under these days those pesky (but extremely rare!) newts seem to be hiding and that's a major consideration when looking to site & rapid build production facilities!


HTH
Z

AdrianC

In the UK...? Now, I dunno if you've been following the news in the last... ooh, three years or so. But, no, I don't think there's much of a hope of the UK winning a big inward-investment project for pan-European manufacturing capacity right now.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

So, basically, you can get an absolute top-spec Zoe to within 10% of an entry-spec Model3?
But entry-spec to entry-spec is about a 30% difference...?

And both are still only about twice what a petrol equivalent would be.

Hi

Not quite the case though ... the standard range plus model isn't (/wasn't & likely won't be again when the current production line rationalisation has settled!) the entry level model & is relatively well specified, certainly well above the Zoe on most measures that would normally be applied ... but isn't that what would be expected when comparing what is effectively a top end entry sector vehicle with something towards the lower end of a higher band even when both are powered by ICEs ?

Regarding twice the price .... the model 3 is widely considered a direct competitor to the BMW 3 series as referenced before, a point which seems to be agreed upon ... so, what is the comparative price of the TM3 EV throughout the range with the equivalent specified or performance vehicle in the BMW 3 series range?, above that, on a price for price basis throughout both ranges, which holds significant advantage going forward? ... whatever the answer you come back with, I doubt there'll be a lack of spin ...

HTH
Z

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

In the UK...? Now, I dunno if you've been following the news in the last... ooh, three years or so. But, no, I don't think there's much of a hope of the UK winning a big inward-investment project for pan-European manufacturing capacity right now.

Calm down, you'll spin your head off on that one! ...

You'll have noted that the post addressed a question on a Tesla plant in Europe ... the reference to the UK simply highlights the kind of issues that arise which are likely to delay & extend the planning & build process for a company holding focus on rapid growth as opposed to margin and how this would impact on their location decisions ...

Anyway, as an aside, a UK plant producing similar volumes to the Fremont facility would probably be well suited to meeting the UK EV demand if there's an issue with tariffs (which is unlikely) whilst if reasonable trading relationships without tariffs are maintained with the EU then there's no issue to consider ...

Think worst case using a combination of remain & leave argument ... tariffs on US cars (including Tesla) could be reduced, bringing the model 3 down to ~£37k and, of course, the price of cars from the EU could also increase by 10% as we're always being told that prices will increase because of applied duties, taking the Zoe in the previous comparison to ~£41k thus completely reversing the position ... ... of course, that's applying the the type of logic that's been applied for 3 years, so it's obviously flawed ... plus 10%, or minus 10%, or both, or none are the available options, two of which resolve to zero ... so what are the odds of the solution resolving to zero in order to not impact heavily on the lucrative & political hot potato that the automotive sector represents? ... :think: ... :shhh: ... :wall:

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

So, basically, you can get an absolute top-spec Zoe to within 10% of an entry-spec Model3?
But entry-spec to entry-spec is about a 30% difference...?

And both are still only about twice what a petrol equivalent would be.

I appreciate your posts are designed to be false and malicious, but can't you at least try to hide it a little bit?

Why on earth, would any intelligent, rational, literate and numerical individual with an IQ over 15 compare base prices on vehicles that are substantially different in size, power, speed, range and technology? Why not compare the price of a pencil to a TM3 too, since you enjoy playing such silly games.

I can't speak for others, but I can assume that all but you (+1) understand what Z is saying, in fact, I think it's safe to assume that you do too, but as always need to fill this thread with pointless FUD for your own enjoyment.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

I wouldn't be surprised if this was placed on the back burner for some time whilst there's focus on building scale in regions that have a (now) proven ability to deliver fully functioning facilities in a fraction of the time that would be possible in the EU or USA ... planning consent alone in most (/all?) EU countries would consume far more time than it's taken to almost finish the Shanghai plant

Then there's the access to finance - China seems to be content to throw money at Tesla for capital investment as long as the outcome is jobs, economic growth & the form of rapid positive environmental impact they're looking for. Against this, although Tesla don't seem to have any problems with raising capital, it must be very tempting for them to send a message to a number of highly critical voices & potentially disruptive practices in the major financial markets ...

If the strategy is growth over margin then what better than focus growth where there's political will ... I'd certainly support a Gigafactory in the UK and have that located pretty close to the UK's Lithium deposits, but the question revolves around whether there'd be political will to chase the investment or effectively ignore the usual sources of protest .... after-all, whatever rock you look under these days those pesky (but extremely rare!) newts seem to be hiding and that's a major consideration when looking to site & rapid build production facilities!

HTH
Z

Could be down to the FUDsters! Elon seems to have gotten fed up with their pointless gibberish, and has suggested trying to finance future expansion (such as the TMY) through cash receipts rather than finance.

That in itself is a shame, since the environmental issues, partly why he got into this game in the first place, are pressing and speed is of the essence.

But then we'd just have to sit through more months and years of FUD posts from the anti-Tesla/EV fool. Hard to know which is worse.