Electric cars

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

Agree, but only as a joint ventures with a Chinese partners

Of course. Just about the entire non-Chinese motor industry is working with JVs - it's the only way they were able to get established.

at volumes that are around 10%-15% of that mentioned

Sure. The current capacity is 150k/year, with output of around 50k last year. Because the demand isn't there. Demand for all non-Chinese brands in the Chinese motor industry has fallen. They simply aren't seen as "prestige" over there any more, according to a Chinese friend.

Rationalisation, consolidation & seriously large mergers on the horizon ??

The motor industry has been going through that for years. There are very few players that aren't in huge-volume groups, deep-seated alliances, or at the very least in plenty of JVs. Development costs, especially of the kind of modular, scaleable platforms that are ubiquitous now, are simply too high.

Moving from IC engines to EV motors and batteries won't change that. If anything, it'll simplify the situation, because the tier 1 suppliers will cover that side.

NigeWick

zeupater wrote: »

it's simply incredulous how slow all of the legacy automotive manufacturers have been to react

I think it's the complacency of the industry experts. As in Kodak inventing digital cameras. They'll never sell...

NigeWick

gfplux wrote: »

She hears a radio programme about the need in the UK to carry multiple charging cables and 6 (six) “credit” cards to access the U.K. charging network.

I carry two cables, Type 2 and a "granny" which has a 3 pin plug. HMGov has just mandated that all rapid chargers will have to take contactless payment from next year. Instavolt for one, already do and Polar have started rolling it out too. I charged a couple of weeks ago at one and had the option of using my Polar card or contactless payment. Handy if I forget my Polar card.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Of course. Just about the entire non-Chinese motor industry is working with JVs - it's the only way they were able to get established.


Sure. The current capacity is 150k/year, with output of around 50k last year. Because the demand isn't there. Demand for all non-Chinese brands in the Chinese motor industry has fallen. They simply aren't seen as "prestige" over there any more, according to a Chinese friend.


The motor industry has been going through that for years. There are very few players that aren't in huge-volume groups, deep-seated alliances, or at the very least in plenty of JVs. Development costs, especially of the kind of modular, scaleable platforms that are ubiquitous now, are simply too high.

Moving from IC engines to EV motors and batteries won't change that. If anything, it'll simplify the situation, because the tier 1 suppliers will cover that side.

Hi

Some comments ...

Regarding 'Just about the entire ...' .... apart from Tesla that is, odd that it wasn't mentioned in that format because it's highly relevant ...

The point relating to demand for 'non-Chinese brands' is interesting and totally linked to the previous comment in that Tesla will be building vehicles themselves, under their own branding as opposed to being a joint venture assembly operation .... the change in mindset may well be linked to premium brand vehicles being sold at premium prices effectively being built by joint ventures which include non premium partners which also build non premium badged product .... ie do Renault partnerships in China also build vehicles which are not Renault badged & therefore not included in the 50k/year build level? - if so then the demand you mention may be there, but just being hidden in the data! ... in not being involved in a joint venture agreement, Tesla may be able to maintain a premium position far more easily than their competition, but additionally, with their presence being so high profile, they may be more readily accepted by the Chinese buyers as being a premium Chinese product than many of their contemporaries ....

Regarding consolidation & alliances ... I'm fully aware of the history of change in the automotive sector and how this is reflected through past mergers & acquisitions in group structures as well as technology & component sharing agreements, but that's not the issue at hand. Over the coming few years it is highly likely that there will be considerable change throughout the entire automotive sector, with the groups that are slowest to react to change simply losing sufficient market share to cause collapse in a marketplace for which autonomous technology deems considerable contraction as being necessary - effectively, who's going to put together a rescue package for a basket case legacy minded ICE manufacturer when ICE market share is collapsing within a market in which sales volumes are also contracting ?

On the position of the tier1 supply base - it may be the case that the legacy manufacturers will look to the supply chain to provide much of the heavy lifting to help them survive the changeover to EVs, however, the opposite may be somewhere between 'just as' & 'far more' likely ....

... The Tesla model of enhanced vertical integration to improve final product margin whilst reducing prices is interesting, although not exactly new (think Dagenham!), so there's a strong argument to conclude that there may be a rush towards competitive advantage through bringing current component subcontracting back in house .... in a time of change when competitive advantage may be the key to survival, the level of complacency involved in tier1 reliance may be considered as being too risky a path to follow ....

HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

Regarding 'Just about the entire ...' .... apart from Tesla that is, odd that it wasn't mentioned in that format because it's highly relevant ...

Tesla are simply the first beneficiary of Xi Jinping's reform doing away with that legal requirement for a 50/50 JV by 2022. If the others see benefit in moving away from their established JVs, they will.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/Xi-Jinping-s-gift-is-intended-for-Chinese-automakers

Renault have been low-volume in China, sure, compared to the others - VAG and GM each build around 4m vehicles a year there.

almillar

are they investing in a plant to make somewhere approaching a million of them

I don't know.

your bargain is your bargain & it's unlikely that the same deal would be widely available.

The Zoe deal was available for a limited time, nationwide. The Soul deal WAS widely available. My point being that the list price we're using, is very often irrelevant. Nobody has paid 'list price' on either of those cars I've 'bought'. And I think my example are relevant. I could afford these cars. I cannot afford a Model 3.

Comparing a current Zoe or Soul to a base model TM3 on almost any technical point, you'll likely find that the TM3 has the advantage for the majority of potential customers, so it effectively comes down to price ... and that's the real issue at hand ...

The issue that I brought up - don't compare a Model 3 to a Zoe!

but as availability as new has become an issue it's not logical as a direct comparison!) ..

You can walk into a dealership today to buy a Zoe mk1. Not so with the Model 3. Maybe it's already registed. But they're certainly still available, and far cheaper than a Model 3. They are in completely different budget categories. Go ahead and compare it to the Jag i-Pace and Audi e-Tron, but I just don't see the point in telling Zoe owners/buyers that a Model 3 is 'better'. Of course it bloody is, it's far more expensive!

She hears a radio programme about the need in the UK to carry multiple charging cables and 6 (six) “credit” cards to access the U.K. charging network.
Honestly I was shocked and had difficulty in believing her (of course did not argue, I am no fool)

Multiple cables - 2 is multiple I guess. You can carry an AC cable (type 2) for proper AC chargers, and if you want, a 3 pin (granny) cable. My Zoe came with the AC cable (Type 2) and that was fine for me. Soul EV comes with both, and I've only just started carrying the 3-pin cable, as I can charge in a car park whilst at work. For rapid charging (Chademo, CCS, AC) the cable is attached to the charger. So you will carry AT MOST 2 cables.

Cards depends on where you live and what brand of chargers are around you, and yes, it's a bit messy. Chargers were being installed before contactless came along, otherwise it would be much easier, and many networks are coming around to that way of thinking. Or having multiple apps on your phone instead!! I'm lucky in this respect in NI - one card gets me onto almost all of the chargers on the island of Ireland. Add in Ecotricty for one charger at Ikea, a few Polar chargers, and maybe another handful I may have missed, and that's it. But yes, there's room for improvement here.

zeupater

almillar wrote: »

I don't know.

The Zoe deal was available for a limited time, nationwide. The Soul deal WAS widely available. My point being that the list price we're using, is very often irrelevant. Nobody has paid 'list price' on either of those cars I've 'bought'. And I think my example are relevant. I could afford these cars. I cannot afford a Model 3.

The issue that I brought up - don't compare a Model 3 to a Zoe!

You can walk into a dealership today to buy a Zoe mk1. Not so with the Model 3. Maybe it's already registed. But they're certainly still available, and far cheaper than a Model 3. They are in completely different budget categories. Go ahead and compare it to the Jag i-Pace and Audi e-Tron, but I just don't see the point in telling Zoe owners/buyers that a Model 3 is 'better'. Of course it bloody is, it's far more expensive! ...

Hi

Again, you maintain that the vehicles occupy different sectors & therefore shouldn't be compared on any form of specification and then refuse to acknowledge that as there is a very close correlation on pricing it's likely that anyone considering a purchase would consider the model 3 as being in direct competition with the EVs you mention ... it's also noteworthy that dealer discounts on Zoes are widely reported to have been drastically reduced as time has passed ... unless you know different & can supply supporting evidence then a current comparison based on 'list' is the only logical approach! ...

Have a look at the ZE50's or Soul EV's specifications, add typical extras & compare them to a basic model 30 SR+ and the total package value becomes pretty apparent ... it's also worthy to note that amongst other changes the TM3 package seems to have become even more competitive overnight with around a ~$1000 (£1000?) price reduction plus a decision to move from a standard flat white paint finish to a pearlescent white, which had been optional at ~£1900 ....

... despite a considerable negative spin on this by various commentators, this simply seems to be the latest indication of Tesla leveraging their efficiencies to drive both product affordability & desirability for competitive advantage whilst others sit back in complacent disbelief!

Regarding comparison of the the i-Pace & eTron, well at their prices (£70-£90k) aren't they in direct competition to Tesla's S & X models? ... if so what's the point of the comparison with a Zoe or Soul EV as their market price point competition is the TM3! ...

HTH
Z

[Deleted User]

Price cuts from Tesla on Monday.

A Model 3 can be had on PCP considerably cheaper than a Leaf e+ or Niro 64 or Kona 64 now.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yep, I've been following the news that one supplier is to increase monthly part production from 20,000 to 40,000 by August I think.

With suggestions (as you mentioned) of increased US production, and perhaps 3k/week in China some point in late 2019 to early 2020 (trial production to start in Sept), this might just be true.

Not being picky, trying to get my head round the numbers, but I think 0.75-1m cars for Tesla by 2022 is most likely low (but a safe and reasonable figure), as with Shanghai and TMY production at speed and possibly pick up too, the figure could be much higher.


As an aside, ARK Invest are suggesting that with falling battery costs, and falling BEV costs, annual demand/sales of EV's in 2023 could be 26m.

My heart says that's too fast a ramp up, but my head says beware the disruption, and EV acceptance seems to be moving mainstream - fun times ahead, and those not planning to adjust (big and fast) could be left in the cold. I do hope Renault and Nissan do well, as they've been so important so far, they deserve to succeed ...... assuming they scale up significantly.

Hi

I too hope that the likes of Renault & Nissan wake up to the real threat that both the widening technology gap and lack of access to economies of scale actually pose ... it's not that they have poor product or technologies, it's just that it seems that there's a general level of complacency that doesn't make sense which may suddenly bite them very hard, leaving them to chase the market as opposed to making it ....

Anyway, regarding the Tesla production figures you raise (0.75-1 million) by 2022 being low ... that would likely because you've read the total as being for the whole company, whereas I was referring to the Shanghai plant alone. If you scale & benchmark the plant against high efficiency assembly plants elsewhere with the ability to build multiple vehicles on the same or similar platforms then this range is likely in the right ballpark .... have you noticed the building seems to be relatively tall, seemingly including considerable scale mezzanines throughout?

Depending on China's internal sales allowing plant to achieve a volume related cost point at the expected rate, it's likely that there'll already be a tentative finance & build agreement for a second plant already, so by 2022 I wouldn't be surprised if we were being amazed at the speed of construction of a major extension to the Shanghai facilities or even a second plant elsewhere, possibly somewhere around Guangzhou to tie in with existing resources/services and having large deep sea port facilities nearby ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

I too hope that the likes of Renault & Nissan wake up to the real threat that both the widening technology gap and lack of access to economies of scale actually pose ... it's not that they have poor product or technologies, it's just that it seems that there's a general level of complacency that doesn't make sense which may suddenly bite them very hard, leaving them to chase the market as opposed to making it ....

Yep, but, do you think rather than complacency it might be fear, as scaling up to serious production numbers and profitability is a big gamble ...... not that there's a medium term alternative I suppose?

Nissan haven't officially announced it, but apparently they are to build a $19k pick up in China, and it's pretty much ready to launch now. Basic, and probably not to Euro/US standards at 68mph max, but that could be ...... interesting!

zeupater wrote: »

Anyway, regarding the Tesla production figures you raise (0.75-1 million) by 2022 being low ... that would likely because you've read the total as being for the whole company, whereas I was referring to the Shanghai plant alone. If you scale & benchmark the plant against high efficiency assembly plants elsewhere with the ability to build multiple vehicles on the same or similar platforms then this range is likely in the right ballpark .... have you noticed the building seems to be relatively tall, seemingly including considerable scale mezzanines throughout?

Yes, spot on, I read it as a total, but on re-reading I can see what you mean. Yep, building is a little on the large side somewhat reflecting Chinese EV demand.

zeupater wrote: »

Depending on China's internal sales allowing plant to achieve a volume related cost point at the expected rate, it's likely that there'll already be a tentative finance & build agreement for a second plant already, so by 2022 I wouldn't be surprised if we were being amazed at the speed of construction of a major extension to the Shanghai facilities or even a second plant elsewhere, possibly somewhere around Guangzhou to tie in with existing resources/services and having large deep sea port facilities nearby ...

HTH
Z

Makes sense, and I hope it happens, though China scares me a bit as I can't completely discard fears that they will somehow 'rip off' Tesla given a chance. But going forward I also assume that they won't want to scare foreign companies too much with their policies, let's hope it stays friendly.

What about a European Gigafactory ....... ?