Electric cars

almillar

considering you seem to prefer fact over opinion, let's test that supposition ...

Renault Zoe share of European EV market 2012 - 2018
(Year - Zoe / EV Market / %)

2012 - 13 - 43000 - 0.0%
2013 - 8774 - 66000 - 13.3%
2014 - 11090 - 99000 - 11.2%
2015 - 18469 - 196000 - 9.4%
2016 - 21240 - 219000 - 9.7%
2017 - 30134 - 306000 - 9.8%
2018 - 37782 - 408000 - 9.3%

So, one car, ~10% of the EV market in Europe? (I see AdrianC points out that includes PHEVs) Yes, actually, I do. Your opinion seems to differ, and that's OK. The numbers do show that the market has got bigger, and Zoe has held on, with the upgrades previously discussed.

Renault having a risk averse mindset ... fine, I agree, it is an opinion, but one which is fully supported by the statistical facts ... 9.4%, 9.7%, 9.8%, 9.3% ... it seems that they're definitely not of a mindset to leverage their lead in the sector to drive their position forward in a proactive way, suggesting there must be a high level of risk averseness regarding new technology adoption in their management's mindset ... well, that's what the facts tend to suggest!

Launching cars takes time. You're saying that Renault have rested on their laurels with 1 passenger car (Let's ignore Twizy). Who has launched more? Nissan has Leaf and EV-200, they've launched Leaf 2, Zoe 2 comes this year (Zoe 1 doubled in range, Leaf 1 didn't manage that). BMW have an i3 that has been tweaked, VW has a Golf that has been tweaked, and an e-up that was never competitively priced... Who am I missing, from the legacy manufacturers, that is leaving Renault so far behind? I repeat that Tesla is an unfair comparison, but again, that comes down to opinion.

, is intentionally holding back their competitive potential over other manufacturers,

This just sounds like a conspiracy theory.

That does rather seen to help Z's thesis, doesn't it? I've never seen much marketing for it either. It does all seem to betray a lack of conviction and commitment.

You didn't quote the bit where I said that it used spare Clio capacity. That's how they made them cheap. People want cheap EVs. Tesla haven't managed to make EVs as cheap as Renault yet. Do you want lots, or do you want cheap? Ironically, cheap comes with volume, but Renault didn't risk an entire factory on it. Is this lack of commitment, or just sensible? Have they been able to fulfil demand, or purposely held it back?

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

40% of the BEV market share is "riding the wave"?

Thanks. :T

silverwhistle

almillar wrote: »

You didn't quote the bit where I said that it used spare Clio capacity. That's how they made them cheap. People want cheap EVs. Tesla haven't managed to make EVs as cheap as Renault yet. Do you want lots, or do you want cheap? Ironically, cheap comes with volume, but Renault didn't risk an entire factory on it. Is this lack of commitment, or just sensible? Have they been able to fulfil demand, or purposely held it back?

I didn't mention the factory but your question I bolded is a good one. With the other evidence I'd suggest lack of commitment. The Tesla issue is a squirrel, in my view. They're competing in a different market sector which makes sense for them to pursue. I've no idea if they will produce more downmarket models in the future.



As an individual I'm not in the BMW/Tesla type market. At current prices nor am I in Zoe territory although I fancy dabbling via the Evezy route. The next couple of years with greater choice and availability are critical, along with less premium pricing, but it's unlikely to be Renault leading the charge.

zeupater

almillar wrote: »

So, one car, ~10% of the EV market in Europe? (I see AdrianC points out that includes PHEVs) Yes, actually, I do. Your opinion seems to differ, and that's OK. The numbers do show that the market has got bigger, and Zoe has held on, with the upgrades previously discussed.


Launching cars takes time. You're saying that Renault have rested on their laurels with 1 passenger car (Let's ignore Twizy). Who has launched more? Nissan has Leaf and EV-200, they've launched Leaf 2, Zoe 2 comes this year (Zoe 1 doubled in range, Leaf 1 didn't manage that). BMW have an i3 that has been tweaked, VW has a Golf that has been tweaked, and an e-up that was never competitively priced... Who am I missing, from the legacy manufacturers, that is leaving Renault so far behind? I repeat that Tesla is an unfair comparison, but again, that comes down to opinion.


This just sounds like a conspiracy theory.


You didn't quote the bit where I said that it used spare Clio capacity. That's how they made them cheap. People want cheap EVs. Tesla haven't managed to make EVs as cheap as Renault yet. Do you want lots, or do you want cheap? Ironically, cheap comes with volume, but Renault didn't risk an entire factory on it. Is this lack of commitment, or just sensible? Have they been able to fulfil demand, or purposely held it back?

Hi

I don't think you're following the way that the EV story is likely to play out & how this will impact on any legacy manufacturer that is not actively seeking to develop an energy efficient package & build that solution in volumes which allows access to considerable economies of scale ...

As mentioned earlier in the thread, to reduce emissions and their effect within large urban areas, China has set a goal to reach 25% of all vehicle sales in the country as being EVs by 2025 ... that's between 7 & 8 million battery cars each year (at current volumes!) just to satisfy demand in their home market in around 5 years time.

So what? - China's on the opposite side of the globe & it's their home market!? ... well, in building 8 million cars/year and developing all of the supporting industries & services to support those vehicles the likelihood of reaching the economies of scale required to become globally dominant will be reached far sooner than the European manufacturers are likely to be able to react to. Once the uptake curve is rising steeply it's highly probable that by 2027/8 there'll be a view to unleash some of their mature EV sector's spare capacity on the rest of the world, initially targetting the home markets of any legacy manufacturer that has been slow to react in order to take out the weakest competition before they even realise what's happened ... by then it's game over for some!

It's not science fiction or a conspiracy theory ... it's exactly what's happened when a strategy of growth over margin has been applied in the past ... however, this time it's not individual regional manufacturers that are driving the strategy, it's a country with a history of centralised control to ensure that whatever the plan looks like, it's actually funded & delivered ...

This is why Renault should have been proactive & acted as a leading edge market maker as opposed to being content to track what the local competition is doing ...

Regarding one volume model & 'who has launched more?' ... obviously the logical candidate is Tesla, who (despite being a relatively new entrant into vehicle manufacturing and have only recently entered the volume manufacturing sector!) are already causing considerable concerns in legacy manufacturer boardrooms the world over, doubly so since they've effectively received the confidence & backing (both resource & financial access) of the Chinese government to help meet their goals (which no legacy manufacturer has been able to do to anywhere near the same degree!) .... so no, it's not 'unfair' to see Tesla as being anything other than a proactive competitor with a considerable technical, market position & cost base advantage over those yet to deliver a reasonable mass-market response ...

In mentioning the leading European vehicles (i3, e-Golf, Leaf & Zoe) there's a failure to recognise the issues in discussion .... economies of scale, efficiencies, range, technologies and the really big one related to all of these - price, all of which (at around £30k-£40k) are considerably more expensive than the ICE vehicle equivalents in the sector they're competing in .... Tesla's model 3's main competition is widely considered to be the BMW 3 series, the price range for which is approx £31k to ~£50k+ depending on model & optional extras chosen which effectively places them in the same price bands before even considering lifetime fuel provision etc ...

On reflection, maybe it is seen by some as unfair to compare the Tesla range to the leading European models because they're not in the same market sector, but considering that they're all EVs at similar price points the main reason to not compare is the package you get ... perhaps that's why the TM3 moved straight to the top of the European EV sales league for the first half of this year! ...

The problem now is that to meet demand as they enter new markets (UK, Australia etc), Tesla will need to spread their production more thinly until production capacity is expanded ... of course, not maintaining regional market share will be touted by some as a harbinger of troubled times ahead as opposed to being the flag to begin the next phase of investment ...

HTH
Z

almillar

So what? - China's on the opposite side of the globe & it's their home market!?

Renault has launched/is launching a little SUV style car in China since you brought it up.

On reflection, maybe it is seen by some as unfair to compare the Tesla range to the leading European models because they're not in the same market sector, but considering that they're all EVs at similar price points

Damn right. My EVs so far have cost me £151 per month, 7500 per year, 2 years (Zoe) and £241 per month, 6,000 miles per year, 3 year (Soul EV). I'll accept that I got a bargain on Zoe, but not the Soul. Can you get me a Model 3 for that price please, or will you accept that it's not an electric supermini? I agre with you that it competes with the 3 Series, so how can it also be in the same category as the Zoe (mk1)?!!

zeupater

almillar wrote: »

Renault has launched/is launching a little SUV style car in China since you brought it up.

Damn right. My EVs so far have cost me £151 per month, 7500 per year, 2 years (Zoe) and £241 per month, 6,000 miles per year, 3 year (Soul EV). I'll accept that I got a bargain on Zoe, but not the Soul. Can you get me a Model 3 for that price please, or will you accept that it's not an electric supermini? I agre with you that it competes with the 3 Series, so how can it also be in the same category as the Zoe (mk1)?!!

Hi

Regarding Renault's EV to be made in China .... are they investing in a plant to make somewhere approaching a million of them? ... if not it simply reinforces the argument that they're content to not take advantage of the position they held ...

Regarding your own EVs, that's not the point - your bargain is your bargain & it's unlikely that the same deal would be widely available. What you seem to be missing is the approach you're maintaining regarding comparison is flawed ...

Comparing a current Zoe or Soul to a base model TM3 on almost any technical point, you'll likely find that the TM3 has the advantage for the majority of potential customers, so it effectively comes down to price ... and that's the real issue at hand ...

Of course, when comparing prices of the ICE equivalents of the Zoe & Soul EVs to an IC engined direct competitor of the TM3 we immediately look at the BMW 3 series (£31-£50k), which as already posed, is recognised to be in a higher vehicle sector & priced substantially higher than the equivalent Cleo (£13-£15k?) & Soul (£15-£24k?) ICE vehicles from their respective suppliers ....

Of course, having established the price range & sector the ICE equivalents operate in, the EV offerings in the form of the Zoe & Soul come in at a substantial discount to the TM3, so somewhere approaching 50% cheaper? ... of course not, the direct comparison saving before the UK EV support incentive is applied is pretty marginal (to the M3 SRP) at around ~16% (35/42) to ~24%(32/42) in both cases ...

Depending on what level of compromise you're willing to accept, whether it's range, performance, interior trim level, technology, vehicle size or whatever other measure employed, the price difference seems to convey that the Zoe & Soul list prices are both overvalued in comparison to the TM3 standard range plus, then again, a comparison against the base TM3 standard range could be considered as showing a more marginal saving at ~9% (35/38.5) ....

Buying a Cleo or ICE Soul to save as little as 9% off the price of a BMW 3series doesn't seem to offer the consumer a good deal, so why should that be considered the case in the EV sector? ... that's the real issue and that's why it addresses the question posed "so how can it also be in the same category as the Zoe" (note I did recognise the mk1 being there fore a reason, but as availability as new has become an issue it's not logical as a direct comparison!) ...

Anyway, whilst (mainly) discussing the relative build volumes, specs & prices of European EVs to those of the TM3, has anyone else noted the market expectations that Tesla is about to push production up a notch which is large enough to significantly dilute their fixed costs (again)? .... some rumours mention an impending doubling of build volumes in their Fremont plant, but even if this capacity uplift is widely off the mark prior to TMY build commences (and it probably is!) the unit cost advantage provided by increased economies of scale must be a little scary to their competitors who were simply concerned with the speed of progress in Shanghai, with initial groups of employees expected to have been recruited & in place within the next couple of weeks! ... now that's what a focussed business looks like ... :cool:

HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

Regarding Renault's EV to be made in China .... are they investing in a plant to make somewhere approaching a million of them?

Renault have had a manufacturing presence in China for 25 years.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Renault have had a manufacturing presence in China for 25 years.

Hi

Agree, but only as a joint ventures with a Chinese partners, at volumes that are around 10%-15% of that mentioned, and importantly, not high volume production of EVs ... if they switched over their existing Chinese facilities to build EVs at their current production potential and actually reach peak output by the end of this year, they'd be building at a daily rate which is around half that of Tesla in Shanghai!

I'm aware of Renault's announced plans to increase build to approx 3x current levels through further joint ventures by 2022, but by then Tesla will have almost certainly fully leveraged the capacity potential of the Shanghai plant, so likely building between 750k to 1million units per year .... again, that's the issue at hand, even when operating in catch-up mode (if that's what it is!), the legacy manufacturer with ample experience in automotive engineering & production continues to cede it's relative market position to an absolute newcomer at the very (/only?) time that the newcomer will be at a serious disadvantage! ... considering the history of growth vs margin battles in various global market sectors over the years, it's simply incredulous how slow all of the legacy automotive manufacturers have been to react ...

Rationalisation, consolidation & seriously large mergers on the horizon ??

HTH
Z

gfplux

I follow this thread and post as a normal potential consumer of an electric vehicle.
My wife and I see the possibility that we will ultimately own an EV but my time frame is shorter than hers.

She as a consumer hears the negative and I try to hear the positive.

She hears a radio programme about the need in the UK to carry multiple charging cables and 6 (six) “credit” cards to access the U.K. charging network.
Honestly I was shocked and had difficulty in believing her (of course did not argue, I am no fool)

I hear a BBC money box programme via a podcast (last week) that there are now +9000 charging stations (not charging points) against +8000 petrol forecourts. (No mention on the programme of different cables and credit cards)
HOWEVER
I hear in the last few days that all new and existing charging points will have contactless payment by the end of 2020. Also confirming the situation of multiple company cards and different cables.

While the geeks provide and squabble about valuable information concerning production volumes, cash burn and other esoteric matters in the end the consumer has to be convinced they are making the right choice.

While there is much smoke and mirrors about who will manufacture what, when and how many, some of the basics are not getting enough air time.

If any of the above is inaccurate please correct me as this (consumer) side of the issue is very interesting to me.

Thank you.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Anyway, whilst (mainly) discussing the relative build volumes, specs & prices of European EVs to those of the TM3, has anyone else noted the market expectations that Tesla is about to push production up a notch which is large enough to significantly dilute their fixed costs (again)? .... some rumours mention an impending doubling of build volumes in their Fremont plant, but even if this capacity uplift is widely off the mark prior to TMY build commences (and it probably is!) the unit cost advantage provided by increased economies of scale must be a little scary to their competitors who were simply concerned with the speed of progress in Shanghai, with initial groups of employees expected to have been recruited & in place within the next couple of weeks! ... now that's what a focussed business looks like ... :cool:

HTH
Z

Yep, I've been following the news that one supplier is to increase monthly part production from 20,000 to 40,000 by August I think.

With suggestions (as you mentioned) of increased US production, and perhaps 3k/week in China some point in late 2019 to early 2020 (trial production to start in Sept), this might just be true.

Not being picky, trying to get my head round the numbers, but I think 0.75-1m cars for Tesla by 2022 is most likely low (but a safe and reasonable figure), as with Shanghai and TMY production at speed and possibly pick up too, the figure could be much higher.


As an aside, ARK Invest are suggesting that with falling battery costs, and falling BEV costs, annual demand/sales of EV's in 2023 could be 26m.

My heart says that's too fast a ramp up, but my head says beware the disruption, and EV acceptance seems to be moving mainstream - fun times ahead, and those not planning to adjust (big and fast) could be left in the cold. I do hope Renault and Nissan do well, as they've been so important so far, they deserve to succeed ...... assuming they scale up significantly.