Electric cars

[Deleted User]

scaredofdebt wrote: »

3. Nissan Leaf - 6-8 month lead time

Dealer told me September/October for a Leaf 62.

There is also the Zoe, but it might be too small for you.

silverwhistle

AdrianC wrote: »

Precisely because it IS more feasible now than it was then.

Well, at least we've got that admission out of you. :-)

AdrianC

silverwhistle wrote: »

Well, at least we've got that admission out of you. :-)

I've never said anything else. Of course it's developing in viability - and fairly rapidly.

The question is solely one of how far along that road it is in reality, and how credible the hype from several directions really is.

British Gas clearly don't feel that even their rather limited (10%) 2013 commitment is viably achievable yet.

almillar

I don't know how or why you're continually failing to understand the points being made ...

This bit:

Renault have been making the Zoe (and other EVs) in relatively low number for a number of years

Relative to their ICE cars, yes. Relative to the EV market, NO. Amongst the most successful handful of manufacturers. This started with me saying Zoe was successful, and you claimed it wasn't, because the Model 3 came along and sold more. I never said anything about squandering or not squandering.

it's simply the corporate mindset of being risk averse regarding change

That's your opinion, not a fact.

Sure Renault wants to milk its existing models, but they should have capitalized more on their advantage with the Zoe. We know that volumes lower prices but the constant story we hear in the EV market is lack of availability and high prices. The battery production issue is still making itself felt throughout the industry and the Zoe battery lease situation just complicates the whole matter, but if they could get volumes up and prices down 3 or 4 k plus some base models even cheaper then there is a lot of pent up demand.

Renault managed to make the Zoe cheap originally through production efficiencies. It shared components with the Clio, and was made in the Clio's production line when it was not in use. That's what made it cheap. And it has also, at times over the years, held back production numbers. I had to wait 6 months for mine and this was the reason given.

There is also the Zoe, but it might be too small for you.

Zoe has a surprisingly big boot, plenty of space in the front (I'm 6ft2) but the Leaf definitely has more space in the rear seats.

zeupater

almillar wrote: »

... This bit:

Renault have been making the Zoe (and other EVs) in relatively low number for a number of years

Relative to their ICE cars, yes. Relative to the EV market, NO. Amongst the most successful handful of manufacturers. This started with me saying Zoe was successful, and you claimed it wasn't, because the Model 3 came along and sold more. I never said anything about squandering or not squandering.

it's simply the corporate mindset of being risk averse regarding change

That's your opinion, not a fact ...

Hi

You honestly believe that Renault have employed a strategy other than maintaining a nominal share of the European EV market with the Zoe and that should be considered as being a measure of success? ... considering you seem to prefer fact over opinion, let's test that supposition ...

Renault Zoe share of European EV market 2012 - 2018
(Year - Zoe / EV Market / %)

2012 - 13 - 43000 - 0.0%
2013 - 8774 - 66000 - 13.3%
2014 - 11090 - 99000 - 11.2%
2015 - 18469 - 196000 - 9.4%
2016 - 21240 - 219000 - 9.7%
2017 - 30134 - 306000 - 9.8%
2018 - 37782 - 408000 - 9.3%

... Looks to me that the statistics suggest a management mindset to enter the market relatively early and far from capitalising on that initial decision, be content to maintain production at a level where their sales are limited to between 9% & 10% of the available market .... not exactly a measure of success in growing market share or having a strategy to become a market sector leader, more like a mindset to play the game but not upset the apple-cart too much & that's exactly the point ...

....in order to survive in the upcoming period of rapid change, any automotive business that has an advantage over their competitors must leverage that advantage through strategic direction to drive the company forward, not simply play Mr10% in the hope that it will be enough to remain price competitive on a global basis

Regarding 'That's your opinion, not a fact.' on Renault having a risk averse mindset ... fine, I agree, it is an opinion, but one which is fully supported by the statistical facts ... 9.4%, 9.7%, 9.8%, 9.3% ... it seems that they're definitely not of a mindset to leverage their lead in the sector to drive their position forward in a proactive way, suggesting there must be a high level of risk averseness regarding new technology adoption in their management's mindset ... well, that's what the facts tend to suggest!

HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

Renault Zoe share of European EV market 2012 - 2018
(Year - Zoe / EV Market / %)

2012 - 13 - 43000 - 0.0%
2013 - 8774 - 66000 - 13.3%
2014 - 11090 - 99000 - 11.2%
2015 - 18469 - 196000 - 9.4%
2016 - 21240 - 219000 - 9.7%
2017 - 30134 - 306000 - 9.8%
2018 - 37782 - 408000 - 9.3%

Those totals include PHEV, of course.

BEV sales in EU+EFTA were 201,284 units last year.
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2018-full-year-europe-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-car-sales-per-eu-and-efta-country/

18.77% market share for one model isn't too shabby, is it? And not that far behind the best-seller, Nissan Leaf, 43,000 units. Two models from Nissan-Renault took about 40% of the European BEV market between them.
(Third, BMW i3, 24k. Fourth, VW e-Golf, 21k. Fifth, Tesla S, 17k.)

To put some perspective on that market share, the single largest brand across the entire European car market was VW, with 11.2%. The single largest multi-brand manufacturer share was VAG, with 23.9%.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Those totals include PHEV, of course.

BEV sales in EU+EFTA were 201,284 units last year.
https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2018-full-year-europe-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-car-sales-per-eu-and-efta-country/

18.77% market share for one model isn't too shabby, is it? And not that far behind the best-seller, Nissan Leaf, 43,000 units. Two models from Nissan-Renault took about 40% of the European BEV market between them.
(Third, BMW i3, 24k. Fourth, VW e-Golf, 21k. Fifth, Tesla S, 17k.)

To put some perspective on that market share, the single largest brand across the entire European car market was VW, with 11.2%. The single largest multi-brand manufacturer share was VAG, with 23.9%.

Hi

No, it's not shabby, but that isn't the issue .... the statistics show a period of very strong correlation between Zoe sales and overall EV market size ... either it's a total coincidence that the vehicle has essentially remained within a 9%-10% market share band for year after year whilst the market has been expanding, or it's a strategy of adjusting build to maintain market share, which, as previously mentioned, is intentionally holding back their competitive potential over other manufacturers, effectively intentionally allowing the competition over five years to not only play catch-up, but to pass them by with little more than a sardonic wave in the rear view mirror, which a number of manufacturers are on the brink of doing within a very short timescale!

The pattern is so familiar ... there was a time that the UK vehicle manufacturers were packed with senior management teams that were so complacent about their home market position that they didn't recognise the threat that the arrival of low cost Japanese brands actually posed, swatting them aside with claims of dumping, dubious quality, growth sustainability & margins that investors wouldn't accept ...

... we all know what happened there, even though some fail to recognise how relevant the parallels are to the current position regarding EVs ....

HTH
Z

silverwhistle

almillar wrote: »

T. And it has also, at times over the years, held back production numbers. I had to wait 6 months for mine and this was the reason given..

That does rather seen to help Z's thesis, doesn't it? I've never seen much marketing for it either. It does all seem to betray a lack of conviction and commitment.


It's taken Dieselgate and smelling the coffee but VW's awakening is showing them up somewhat.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

You honestly believe that Renault have employed a strategy other than maintaining a nominal share of the European EV market with the Zoe and that should be considered as being a measure of success?

HTH
Z

Seems like a fair description. They and Nissan earned a lot of kudos from me for driving change, but now they seem to have switched to riding the wave instead.

That's fine, unless they get overtaken and lose all market advantage.

Given that BEV's are being pushed artificially, due to environmental issues and government policies, then they are squandering a lead/advantage in a market that is guaranteed to explode and succeed.

If the Chinese, or Tesla build a European Gigafactory, and also launch a cheaper smaller BEV off the back of larger production numbers, then 'the old boys' will be in very serious trouble.

As a shareholder, I'm more than happy for Tesla to eat everyone's lunch, but as a passionate supporter of policies to combat AGW, we need to move much faster ("Tesla can't do it on their own!") and that means everyone getting off their backsides and being proactive ....... possibly VW will now shift from producing an endless number of concept EV's and start building big now, that should also strike terror into the hearts of the competition.

This transition is likely to lead to the birth and death of some marques, so treading water is a dangerous corporate game.

AdrianC

40% of the BEV market share is "riding the wave"?