Electric cars

Martyn1981

Nearly_Old wrote: »

When looking at new cars BEV vs ICE I think we need to keep things in perspective. Just one new super container ship produces as much pollution per year as 50 million cars, or to put it another way 15 ships just about produce the same pollution as all the 760 million cars in the world.

Just one of numerous reports.

https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads/cargo-container-shipping-carbon-pollution/

Regarding perspective, can I just point out something not exactly clear from that article, but first state that shipping is incredibly 'bad' so this isn't meant as a defence.

Yes, 15 superships match the pollution of all cars, but don't confuse that with CO2 or GHG emissions, which as the article points out is far less significant - but still enormous:

It has been estimated that just one of these container ships, the length of around six football pitches, can produce the same amount of pollution as 50 million cars. The emissions from 15 of these mega-ships match those from all the cars in the world. And if the shipping industry were a country, it would be ranked between Germany and Japan as the sixth-largest contributor to global CO2 emissions.

The reason their pollution is so, so bad is that they burn 'bunker fuel' a generic name for all the carp left over from refining oil. It's a thick tarry mix of pollutants, and can even need heating to allow it to flow.

Legislation now means that on board equipment is needed, or less polluting fuels, like diesel should be used, but bean counting and naughtiness, mean they will remain filthy for some time.

Dredging my memory here, but I seem to recall that if burning diesel, a giant container ship actually has a fuel efficiency of about 1,000 miles per gallon per tonne, which is pretty impressive, but still an enormous amount of GHG's. The addition of large kites can save a lot of fuel, as can rotor sails, and PV, if only for onboard leccy consumption, reducing the demand on the engines.

Nearly_Old wrote: »

So I think that ICE cars will be produced in smaller numbers but like a lot things they could end up being a specialist niche market.

Putting aside the legislation that will ban sales at certain time points (Sweden just joined the 2030 club), once production gets too low, costs will spike ending demand. Also, it's hard to think of a specialist niche that EV's won't do better. If you are completely away from a leccy connection, then it's likely you will also be away from fuel stations too, so whilst a jerry can holds a lot of energy, some PV panels would hold (provide) more (long term).

For heavy duty off-roading, BEV torque and multiple motors will prevail, and for water crossing, as shown by the Rivian, that's limited only by the depth of water at which point the vehicles bouyancy removes weight and therefore grip from the wheels.

In military situations, perhaps ICE's could survive, but that will again depend on fuel supply, which can costs $00's per gallon delivered due to the large protected convoy needed, so as forward bases go PV and batts (as the US are starting to do), there's a chance forward vehicles might also go electric.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

So ultra low emissions by 2030 likely means that diesels will be hit very hard (we're already seeing the effect of this!), larger petrol engine cars will have severe compliance issues without some form of hybrid assistance, leaving a temporary space for small, highly efficient (and cheaper!) ICEs to exist whilst manufacturing economies of scale allow technology prices to drop to levels that can be incorporated into the small car sector ... if it's only 10 years then the industry isn't going to be investing much capital in developing new modes, so expect existing (at mid 2020's onwards!) assets, tooling & models to be sweated (along with ongoing model entrenchment) in the small ICE car sector, with a view to switching to EVs as they're probably more suited, before the total new car sales ban comes into force in 2040 ...

HTH
Z

And to expand on what you've said, we also have to think about how legislative changes in one country, will impact other countries through the changing economics of producing different vehicles for different markets, and smaller demand for each individual vehicle.

In the US, when Trumpty decided to water down the planned fuel efficiency targets for cars, he also removed the legislation allowing California to set their own standards - he did this because the Californian market (around 10% of the US) is big enough to semi force manufacturers to build to their (higher) standard, rather than to two different standards, plus a number of other states use Cali as their requirement too.

Martyn1981

No idea if anyone is interested, but I thought this item was very thought provoking, and I think fair and balanced, looking towards VW's role going forward, and the potential they bring to the table.

Will VW's Electric Cars Be Revolutionary? Or Will It Just Be Late To The Party?

AnotherJoe

AdrianC wrote: »

Add in charge time as another factor. The more battery capacity, the longer the charge.
.

Not really, charge time may be either inconsequential because the car is charging whilst you do something else or its related to the distance you have left to drive before you can next charge.
It's common for people who don't have practical experience of using an EV to imagine you fill it up every time you charge just like you do witha petrol car, but it doesn't work that way.
If you need 20 miles to get to your destination where you will then charge at leisure , that's all the time you need , whatever it takes to get that 20 miles worth of charge . That's pretty much independent of the size of the battery.
P.s. the other encouragement to do it that way is not just saving time it's saving money. On the road you are likely charging at 35p kWh. Get home and it will be anywhere from 5p to 15p.

almillar

Not at all, IMO there was a natural cycle some people bought new cars, some bought 2 to 3 year old cars, then each car might have 2, 3, 4 or even more subsequent owners before it was scrapped and new cars fed into the start of the cycle.

So if I understand correctly, you're saying that cars won't last as long, because of bigger, more expensive, complicated parts, like auto gearboxes, going wrong, and the cost of repair writing off the car, and putting buyers off buying anything too old. Fair enough, and this can transfer to electric cars at the moment too - there are many parts that are thousands of pounds worth, and have to be sent away to another country to be simply replaced. That's OK under warranty, but very expensive afterwards. The market for EVs is still immature, and the after-market is even more immature, but it will come. It will be especially useful for refurbishing batteries.

So will anyone buy a modern car after it is 7 or 8 years old?

I think loads of people will. I would. I'm running a 14 year old car right now. Cars are always getting more complicated - fuel injection, airbags, ECUs, ABS, emmissions gubbins all come along, cause problems, get fixed. Something will break, in the end, as now, that will end the economical viability of the car.

I could not find one new car that made me think "wow" but I did find a couple of Z3M Coupes and there were a couple of nearly new Morgan+4s.

I hope you'll admit that's a bit niche!

So I think that ICE cars will be produced in smaller numbers but like a lot things they could end up being a specialist niche market.

I hope so. There's no need for an ICE Vauxhall Zafira in an electric future, but enthusiast cars shouldn't be priced off the road (the market will punish them harshly enough without any sanctions being needed!).

Considering the growing list of countries which already have legislation in place to ban the sales of new petrol & diesel cars sometime between 2030 & 2040

Legislation, or the threat thereof - just threatening it might be enough to put manufacturers (and consumers) off amd point them towards 'mostly' EV. Then by the time we hit those years, banning them mightn't be necessary. I can only hope!

Add in charge time as another factor. The more battery capacity, the longer the charge.

To add to AnotherJoe's analysis - AdrianC is right, bigger batteries will take longer to charge, if the charge speed stays the same. Rapid chargers are getting faster. We're mostly stuck at 50kW speeds, whilst capacities are going up, but plenty of cars can go faster than that (the Soul EV advertises 100kW, might not quite manage that). But as AnotherJoe says, that problem of taking longer, is a symptom of the solution to the range problem. We don't need to charge as often, if the battery is bigger, assuming we still have the same driving pattern.

I have a 7kW charger at home. This is the fastest most of us will see at home for a very long time - most of us have single phase AC. If I sleep for 8 hours, and charge my car for 8 hours, that allows me to pump 7x8=56kWh into a car, not allowing for losses. Let's call it 50kWh. At a conservative 3miles per kWh, that gives me 150 miles of range to drive every single day. Without ever charging in public. That suits many, many people just fine.

zeupater

Nearly_Old wrote: »

From the above:
There is one Act of Parliament - Automated and Electrical Vehicles Bill that has received Royal Assent. There are details of grants, etc being available (funds permitting). Otherwise everything else at the moment is aspirations, targets, policy, etc that will only become fact if and when actual legislation is passed. Also it is still silent on the use of all the existing ICE vehicles at the time any legislation is enacted?

Hi

But that changes nothing related to your original statement ...

The proposal / target is that all new cars built will effectively be zero emission by 2040; there is pressure on the government to extend this to no new sales but at the moment it is only production and not sales that is included. New diesel and petrol vehicles will be banned - the current proposals are silent on existing diesel and petrol vehicles except for a statement that there will be no scrappage scheme. Therefore it is posible that ICE veicles could be produced for another 20 years.

The issue you would raise if the above was the case is that although the UK can 'ban' the production of new vehicles in the UK, they have no direct legislative influence on what happens in other countries & territories, therefore the focus would not be on production but sales ... the referenced government statement confirms that this focus is to be on sales contrary to the statement referenced above.

Regarding ICE vehicle sales continuing for 20years, as mentioned, the first phase in the decarbonisation plan focused on achieving ".. at least 50% — and as many as 70% — of new car sales to be ultra low emission by 2030, alongside up to 40% of new vans" which (as previously mentioned) disproportionately hits larger vehicle platforms & performance engined vehicles. To achieve these goals requires little more than raising emission based VED rates to levels which would discourage sales in the relevant sectors ...

There's no logical reason why the current VED banding couldn't be simplified to support the effort to electrify road transport and plenty of reasons to support a direct relationship to emissions ... maybe something along the lines of £x/gCO2e + £y/gPM2.5 per standard mile would be the way to fairly address the issue of larger vehicles, with £x & £y being progressively increased as the 2030 & 2040 thresholds approach as a form of purchase decision 'encouragement' ...

As for the long term prospects for grants for EV/low emission vehicle purchases, I wouldn't set any high expectations. It's far more likely that direct government support for purchases will be wound down & withdrawn well before EV sales become anywhere near mainstream, probably timed to mirror the fall in EV vehicle prices due to manufacturing economies of scale cost savings ... we're already seeing the reduction of incentives being flagged in some countries with higher EV market shares, so the timescales for total withdrawal could be very short!

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

A short (or it claimed it was going to be short) article on EV's approaching the disruption point of the 'S' curve.

We're not there yet, but it's getting closer. And at the end it addresses my major concern which is supply limitation.

Quick question - at what percentage of sales will EV's spark fear into ICE owners with regard to SH prices. I'm thinking perhaps 20%(?) I've no real idea, but wondering if you are buying an ICE new, when (what %) will you start to seriously consider major depreciation losses. I've plucked 20% out of the air, as that might suggest a figure of 50%+ for annual EV sales, when the ICE car is 3-5yrs old.

Electric Cars Are About To Absolutely Demolish Gasmobiles

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

A short (or it claimed it was going to be short) article on EV's approaching the disruption point of the 'S' curve.

We're not there yet, but it's getting closer. And at the end it addresses my major concern which is supply limitation.

Quick question - at what percentage of sales will EV's spark fear into ICE owners with regard to SH prices. I'm thinking perhaps 20%(?) I've no real idea, but wondering if you are buying an ICE new, when (what %) will you start to seriously consider major depreciation losses. I've plucked 20% out of the air, as that might suggest a figure of 50%+ for annual EV sales, when the ICE car is 3-5yrs old.

Electric Cars Are About To Absolutely Demolish Gasmobiles

Hi

I'm pretty sure that we're starting to see a drop-off of new car sales in certain sectors due to anticipation of EV releases ... I know a couple of people who have decided to skip their usual 3year vehicle replacement purchases to wait for more affordable EV models, using the extra depreciation savings to bridge the initial price difference ..

Currently sitting about 15' from a TMS & 50' from a shiny new I-Pace, so there's certainly more & more EVs around!

HTH
Z

silverwhistle

zeupater wrote: »

I'm pretty sure that we're starting to see a drop-off of new car sales in certain sectors due to anticipation of EV releases ... I know a couple of people who have decided to skip their usual 3year vehicle replacement purchases to wait for more affordable EV models, using the extra depreciation savings to bridge the initial price difference ..

I get that impression from dipping in to the Speak EV forum. Plus there are a whole host of us waiting for the second hand market to be better supplied and better value..

buglawton

Martyn1981 wrote: »

A short (or it claimed it was going to be short) article on EV's approaching the disruption point of the 'S' curve.

We're not there yet, but it's getting closer. And at the end it addresses my major concern which is supply limitation.

Quick question - at what percentage of sales will EV's spark fear into ICE owners with regard to SH prices. I'm thinking perhaps 20%(?) I've no real idea, but wondering if you are buying an ICE new, when (what %) will you start to seriously consider major depreciation losses. I've plucked 20% out of the air, as that might suggest a figure of 50%+ for annual EV sales, when the ICE car is 3-5yrs old.

Electric Cars Are About To Absolutely Demolish Gasmobiles

There's something about the enthusiasm of your post that makes me think what goes around comes around. Change, that is.
https://www.nytimes.com/1973/03/25/archives/the-horseless-carriage-means-troublele.html

Although barely ten years since it first made its appearance, it has already conquered an important position in the domain of travel.