Electric cars

Martyn1981

Tarambor wrote: »

Whilst there has been a slowdown it is more due to the global economic slowdown than a shift to EVs. In the UK for example people are putting off big purchases such as cars and houses due to Brexit. ICE vehicles are still outselling EVs of all flavours by a significant multiplier.

If it's due to the 'global economic slowdown', then why have the sales of EV's gone up in all 3 examples, and why have the total light duty sales increased in both Europe and the USA? Wouldn't a reduction in ICE's due to falling demand in cars lead to less cars sold, not more, and also less EV's?

Yes, ICE's still outsell EV's massively, but that's not the point yet, what is, is the trend, and that's showing a shift away from ICE's and towards EV's.

Martyn1981

Tarambor wrote: »

ICE vehicles are still outselling EVs of all flavours by a significant multiplier.

Thinking about it, and my mention of trends, it's probably worth comparing the mutipliers (ICE v's EV's):

So, Europe:

2017 56.6 : 1
2018 42.5 : 1

China

2017 47.1 : 1
2018 24.5 : 1

USA

2017 85.2 : 1
2018 47 : 1

AdrianC

RichardD1970 wrote: »

The extra capacity at Castle Brom is from the XJ finishing. AFAIA the new XJ is going to be electric, so a possible fit for the new MLA to be built at Solihull???

Possible.

If and when the new XJ/RoadRover happens, there'll be a BEV, sure, but I'd put good money that won't be the only version produced.

almillar

The one thing in life you can be sure of is tax. Currently my petrol car covers 50 miles on about £2 worth of fuel. Oh, plus £4 in tax. Who believes that road pricing won't arrive to hammer peak time EV commuters? And are those people envisaging 10 years of ownership with their upcoming EV, putting road pricing estimates into their total cost of ownership calculations?

And how will they tax non EVs? Higher, or lower?!

If the Citroen, the Z4 and the Z3 had been changed every 3 years then that would be around 15 new cars. The point I was trying to make is that the pollution and use of resources (materials, energy, etc) is generally worse than keeping the original car running. When replacing the Citroen the only car we found with the equivalent boot space (remember that this is the everyday workhorse) was the Octavia. There may be a BEV somewhere at £30/40/50k but the Skoda was only £14.5k and ticked all the boxes.

Your point seems to be that no-one should make or buy new cars. That'll put up the price of your second hand ones! If you accept that new cars will be built, should they be ICE or EV? Which will have a lower environmental impact, over its life?

Nearly_Old

If the Citroen, the Z4 and the Z3 had been changed every 3 years then that would be around 15 new cars. The point I was trying to make is that the pollution and use of resources (materials, energy, etc) is generally worse than keeping the original car running. When replacing the Citroen the only car we found with the equivalent boot space (remember that this is the everyday workhorse) was the Octavia. There may be a BEV somewhere at £30/40/50k but the Skoda was only £14.5k and ticked all the boxes.

almillar wrote: »

Your point seems to be that no-one should make or buy new cars. That'll put up the price of your second hand ones! If you accept that new cars will be built, should they be ICE or EV? Which will have a lower environmental impact, over its life?

Not at all, IMO there was a natural cycle some people bought new cars, some bought 2 to 3 year old cars, then each car might have 2, 3, 4 or even more subsequent owners before it was scrapped and new cars fed into the start of the cycle.

However I think that this existing cycle is changing and in the future cars could be scrapped after just 2 or 3 owners. Speaking to our local BMW dealer just over a year ago they were saying that they were reaching the point where they sold only 10% of their new cars with 90% being PCP/Contract Hire/Business Lease/etc. These then come back into the market at, say 3 years old. A BMW Approved Used Car has a full BMW warranty for 1 year after that it can be renewed (at a cost) annually. This warranty can be anything from a few hundred to over a thousand pounds a year. Also the warranty is not covered by the block exemption so one condition of the warranty is that the car is serviced by BMW, again expensive.


Earlier this year a member of the Zed forum bought a 3 year old Z4 with the DCT gearbox and unfortunately for him the gearbox managed to self destruct. Fortunately the BMW warranty picked the bill £8k for the gearbox plus £4k labour. So will anyone buy a modern car after it is 7 or 8 years old? There will be the additional warranty (increasing each year) costs plus the servicing costs. Can you afford not to pay these extra costs as one repair could easily be more than the value of the car? So I think that we might be producing new cars now that are never going to be used for as long as cars used to be on the road which IMO is a waste.


In an earlier post I was asked what brand new car I would buy for £50 to £60k. Having spent a few hours the other night looking online I can honestly say that there is not one new car currently available that I would buy. I could not find one new car that made me think "wow" but I did find a couple of Z3M Coupes and there were a couple of nearly new Morgan+4s.


When looking at new cars BEV vs ICE I think we need to keep things in perspective. Just one new super container ship produces as much pollution per year as 50 million cars, or to put it another way 15 ships just about produce the same pollution as all the 760 million cars in the world.

Just one of numerous reports.

https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads/cargo-container-shipping-carbon-pollution/


So I think that ICE cars will be produced in smaller numbers but like a lot things they could end up being a specialist niche market.

zeupater

Nearly_Old wrote: »

... So I think that ICE cars will be produced in smaller numbers but like a lot things they could end up being a specialist niche market.

Hi

Maybe, but in what countries?

Considering the growing list of countries which already have legislation in place to ban the sales of new petrol & diesel cars sometime between 2030 & 2040, the market may be niche enough for only the really well-off to participate & even then they'd need to be very selective as to where their 'alternative' properties are located to take delivery!! ..

HTH
Z

Nearly_Old

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Maybe, but in what countries?

Considering the growing list of countries which already have legislation in place to ban the sales of new petrol & diesel cars sometime between 2030 & 2040, the market may be niche enough for only the really well-off to participate & even then they'd need to be very selective as to where their 'alternative' properties are located to take delivery!! ..

HTH
Z

The proposal / target is that all new cars built will effectively be zero emission by 2040; there is pressure on the government to extend this to no new sales but at the moment it is only production and not sales that is included. New diesel and petrol vehicles will be banned - the current proposals are silent on existing diesel and petrol vehicles except for a statement that there will be no scrappage scheme. Therefore it is posible that ICE veicles could be produced for another 20 years.


In the UK there are all the race circuits that will still be available.

Herzlos

The legislation will likely only cover road vehicles too, so I think it'll still be possible to buy ICE vehicles but not register them for use on the road - track day vehicles, farms, etc.


That's assuming that EV's are taking those niches too by 2040.

zeupater

Nearly_Old wrote: »

The proposal / target is that all new cars built will effectively be zero emission by 2040; there is pressure on the government to extend this to no new sales but at the moment it is only production and not sales that is included. New diesel and petrol vehicles will be banned - the current proposals are silent on existing diesel and petrol vehicles except for a statement that there will be no scrappage scheme. Therefore it is posible that ICE veicles could be produced for another 20 years.


In the UK there are all the race circuits that will still be available.

Hi

It's likely that you misunderstand .... so from the 'horse's mouth', as opposed to third parties ... ( https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-road-to-zero-strategy-to-lead-the-world-in-zero-emission-vehicle-technology ) ...

... at least 50% — and as many as 70% — of new car sales to be ultra low emission by 2030, alongside up to 40% of new vans ...
.
...The government has no plan to ban any particular technology - like hybrids - as part of this strategy ...
.
... the UK will end the sale of new conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2040 ..

So ultra low emissions by 2030 likely means that diesels will be hit very hard (we're already seeing the effect of this!), larger petrol engine cars will have severe compliance issues without some form of hybrid assistance, leaving a temporary space for small, highly efficient (and cheaper!) ICEs to exist whilst manufacturing economies of scale allow technology prices to drop to levels that can be incorporated into the small car sector ... if it's only 10 years then the industry isn't going to be investing much capital in developing new modes, so expect existing (at mid 2020's onwards!) assets, tooling & models to be sweated (along with ongoing model entrenchment) in the small ICE car sector, with a view to switching to EVs as they're probably more suited, before the total new car sales ban comes into force in 2040 ...

Unless you know different & have an authoritative supporting source to link to!

HTH
Z

Nearly_Old

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

. ( https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-road-to-zero-strategy-to-lead-the-world-in-zero-emission-vehicle-technology ) ...

Z

From the above:
There is one Act of Parliament - Automated and Electrical Vehicles Bill that has received Royal Assent. There are details of grants, etc being available (funds permitting). Otherwise everything else at the moment is aspirations, targets, policy, etc that will only become fact if and when actual legislation is passed. Also it is still silent on the use of all the existing ICE vehicles at the time any legislation is enacted?