Electric cars

Martyn1981

Great news (I think) for EV's with the German Government trying to push their car industry forward, with a target of a car half as sexy as a Tesla.

German Economy Minister — Tesla’s Cars >2× As Sexy As BMW, VW, & Daimler EVs

As reported by Handelsblatt, minister Altmaier was attending an AI event in Berlin over the weekend with the CEOs of Daimler and VW when he asked the auto bosses:

“I really wonder when you, Mr. Zetsche, or you, Mr. Diess, or Mr. Krüger from BMW will be in a position to build an electric car that is half as sexy as a Tesla. As far as the attractiveness of your e-cars is concerned, you could actually come up with some fresh ideas.” (translated)

The CEOs didn’t respond to this particular question (and BMW’s Krüger wasn’t himself present). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, after all. However, VW’s boss Diess acknowledged falling behind in the area of vehicle AI and autonomy, saying, “But we are determined to catch up. The game is not lost yet.”

And some potentially excellent news for Li-ion batts:

Penn State Research Could Double The Life Of Lithium Ion Batteries

Be nice if that all comes together and we see half the price and twice the life expectancy (when fast charging) in the medium term.

almillar

(AdrianC)

Al - the doubling of battery pack capacity isn't a technology change. It's simply sticking more of the same cells together. A 40 litre fuel tank in an IC car is just as "mature technology" as an 80 litre tank in a different IC car. A 40kWh battery pack is still "mature technology", even though there are have been 80+kWh battery packs on the market for years. Capacity is all about packaging and cost, no more.

No, it's not a technology change, but it is a development. You say they're just bunging more cells in - again, citing the Zoe, they were able to almost double the capacity, with the battery being exactly the same size, and slightly heavier - that's progressing a mature technology. Doubling the size of a fuel tank would just mean making it bigger. The battery got more capacity, without getting bigger. That was clever, but as I said, I don't think they'll double again *with lithium ion*.


(Martyn)

If BEV's are now mature then we won't see any substantial change to their design and price, any substantial change to the Li-ion batts being deployed, and no substantial change to the type of batts being installed.

You're not arguing with me here. BEVs (the current, Li-Ion breed) AREN'T mature. I've agreed with you multiple times already on this. You don't seem to be able to read this. I started out saying they're a collection of mature technologies, which you immediately dismissed. I've made my argument, you disagree with it, fine.

If batts are mature then please confirm that costs won't fall, the chemistry (particularly Cobalt content) won't change, that energy density won't improve, and that other batt types won't be developed and deployed in the medium to long term

Again, reading failure. I already said 'mature' doesn't mean development has ended. Lithium Ion batteries are mature. Costs WILL go down, capacities WILL increase, efficiencies will be found, but it's all slowing down. That's a mature technology. I cited internal combustion engines. They are STILL getting faster and more efficient. Do you think that makes them 'not mature'? Cobalt content is, in my opinion, an efficiency being added to a mature technology.
Solid state batteries may come, other wonderful battery technologies may come. But current EVs are an IMMATURE technology, made up of MATURE technologies. I've split an EV down to its components, that's all.

AdrianC

almillar wrote: »

No, it's not a technology change, but it is a development.

Indeed.
And the usual definition of a mature technology does not rule out evolutionary development.

You say they're just bunging more cells in - again, citing the Zoe, they were able to almost double the capacity, with the battery being exactly the same size, and slightly heavier - that's progressing a mature technology.

Yup. BTW, I was wrong - Renault may not have increased the number of cells. The 40kWh pack allegedly uses the same number of cells as the 22kWh did, and the same 18650 format cells - they're simply higher capacity cells. Again, no revolution, simply evolution. Go to 7DayShop to buy NiMH rechargable AA cells, and they vary in capacity more than threefold. Nobody would say they were immature technology... Would they...?

almillar

Thanks for backpeddling, but your claim is still silly unless you can state that batt prices won't fall substantially, Li-ion technology won't improve and the chemistry won't change, and other batt technologies won't arrive and won't displace Li-ion if found to be more suitable.

Batts and BEV's are not mature, and that's why I think we can say with confidence now that the technology 'will win' v's ICE.

I disagree. A technology can be mature AND have prices fall, continue to improve. Also, you've just mentioned that EVs will win against ICE - I'm pretty sure they will, yes, long before the fuel ICE runs on, runs out.

People thought that PV was mature in 2010...

Hold on. I compared to internal combustion engines, you didn't say a word. Adrian mentioned:
'Internal combustion vehicles.
Home computers.
Mobile phones.
Vacuum cleaners.
Lawnmowers.
Hell, most consumer "tech"...'
And you didn't want to muddy the waters. Now you get to muddy the waters by mentioning Solar PV. How is that fair? And to answer your Solar PV point, yes, it's been around a long time, and has developed a lot, so it's mature, in my opinion. There are many more developments to come, I'm sure, but that doesn't mean it's not mature too.

When the tech is still improving fast, costs falling fast, and the 'popular' solution may change, then the technology is not (yet) mature, just like BEV's and batts

Yes, I agree with this definition.
The bit where we differ, is just how fast all this stuff is happening - I think we've already had the boom, the fast bits, in the technologies inside our EVs and progress has slowed *with Li-Ion batteries*.
That mature battery technology is now being repeated in different shapes, sizes, speeds and capacities of cars, but they will all be 'Lithium Ion powered cars'. It is being honed, improved upon, getting cheaper, but there will be no breakthroughs. I think we agree the next 'breakthrough' will be when a different chemistry comes along, and is economically viable to replace Li-Ion.

If the technology was mature, then they wouldn't have been able to make such a massive improvement.

Excellent point - let's define when it matured, as when the 40KWh Zoe launched, 2017. It was not mature in 2013 but is as of 2017, how's that? Things sure did move fast back then.

almillar

I suspect you are confusing mature with old. A technology is mature when changes/improvements (and price reductions) become small. Li-ion batts are not mature, and EV's batts are not mature as we don't even know what technology(ies) will be successful in the medium to long term.

No, I'm not confusing mature with old. We're agreeing on the definition of mature. I've been very clear that I'm talking about components in a car, not the whole car. We agree that the 'EV' is an immature technology. And I've explained that I think changes, improvements, price reductions WILL be small, in Li-Ion batteries. You think they'll be big, and that's all there is to it.
Talking about solid state batteries, and *different* technologies is fine, but my point is about the current crop of EVs - they'll be running on Li-Ion for the next decade. All the other technologies you're talking about are 'future', not even current. They may find their way into EVs, they may fail.

Don't you find your comments at all odd that you can both claim that the components are mature but BEV's are not mature, since BEV's are a collection of technologies - perhaps you are thinking of that famous saying - "the whole is less than the sum of its parts."

Yes it's an oddity, it's why I brought it up, because you and Adrian were arguing about EVs being mature or not , and I've explained myself as well as I can. By the time the first Leaf was on the road, Li-Ion was well proven. Some question marks remained, sure, but an EV is one of the last places that Li-Ion appeared.

Interesting that you think PV is now mature despite my pointing out that prices are still falling fast, efficiency is still rising fast, and the 'winning' technology may well be Perovskite, or Silicon/Perovskite, not what we are using today ....... but it's old therefore you think it's mature!

I don't know enough about PV to judge, I'll trust your judgement on that one.

I think this demonstrates exactly where you are going wrong. You acknowledge that large improvements in a technology mean it's not mature, but then claim the technology is now mature because you don't expect/envision any significant future changes ....... even the possibility of a change in Li-ion chemistry or to a different batt type.

It demonstrates that you're not understanding the small point I'm getting at. You can't change chemistry. Adding cobalt will help if they can get that to work. You're right, I DON'T envisage any significant changes. Maybe we will move on from Li-Ion to *something better* - I hope we do. But it needs to be proven, then it needs to become economically viable - that's a long way off for anything at the moment. I'm not arguing about different battery types remember, I'm talking about Li-Ion.

I appreciate that neither of us can see the future, but your denial of future changes does not make your claim of maturity true, though it does explain why you are making it. I assume that if we see further significant changes you will change your statement to - 'well I was wrong, it wasn't mature then, but it is now' ....... rinse and repeat.

I don't deny future changes. I feel like sometimes you've got the future written already! Yes, sure, if Renault stuffs 80kW into a £20,000 Zoe within 5 years, I was wrong.

AdrianC

almillar wrote: »

No, I'm not confusing mature with old. We're agreeing on the definition of mature. I've been very clear that I'm talking about components in a car, not the whole car.

Is sellotaping a bunch of mature technologies together somehow anything but mature?

We agree that the 'EV' is an immature technology.

The concept of an electric-powered vehicle is hardly novel. I'm sure we all had milk delivered by them in our childhoods, and they were around at the very dawn of the motorcar. They have been in mainstream production, available to buy through mainstream car brand showrooms in the UK and around the world, for several decades.


So if the concept is mature, any immaturity must be in the component technologies.


Are changes from lead-acid to NiCad to NiMH to Lithium batteries (none of them in any way revolutionary in and of themselves) sufficient to affect the maturity of the very concept? Is that really any different from the differences between petrol, diesel and LPG - or hydrogen - as an internal combustion fuel?

Yes, sure, if Renault stuffs 80kW into a £20,000 Zoe within 5 years, I was wrong.

Or were you? Depends on how they do it, doesn't it? If the basic tech is unchanged, merely an iterative process of evolution (capacity or number of cells used, or their unit price), then doesn't that prove the technology is mature?



Sure, if there's some major change of direction in the technologies used, then that's a different matter.


Anyway, if we're talking about Renault's future direction, will the arrest and sacking of Carlos Ghosn make a difference? After all, look at the three mainstream (or legacy, if you prefer) brands who've been leading the commercialisation of PHEVs and BEVs over the last few years. Renault, Nissan, Mitsu. And what do they have in common? They're all part of the same Ghosn-led alliance.

buglawton

AdrianC wrote: »

Is sellotaping a bunch of mature technologies together somehow anything but mature?

The concept of an electric-powered vehicle is hardly novel. I'm sure we all had milk delivered by them in our childhoods, and they were around at the very dawn of the motorcar. They have been in mainstream production, available to buy through mainstream car brand showrooms in the UK and around the world, for several decades.

As a 6 year old I recall regularly helping our local milkman out on his rounds.
His milk float used to seem dizzying fast when he allowed it to reach 30 mph on country lanes. It delivered a massive amount of milk, cream, bread and orange squash on an overnight charge.

There was a story in the papers a year or 2 ago where a mum bought a used milk float to do the school run. Cheap, cheerful completely fit-for-purpose solution that makes me wonder why we're all fixated on £35k+ hi-tech EV cars.

Martyn1981

Many more detailed articles on this, but in short GM have doubled down on their denial of BEV pickups and suggest they are decades away.

General Motors Says No To Electric Pickup Truck

“The core business is going to be the core business for a couple of decades to come. There will not be any AV/EV pickups.”

I'll make a prediction, that they'll announce a BEV pickup in the next 24 months, for arrival in 5(ish)yrs.

This will happen as BEV pickups start to hit the market, GM execs have a play with a BEV/BEV pickup and realise they are in trouble, the market starts to demand BEV pickups as folk realise the cost savings, and the benefits of massive torque.

Or GM (and Ford & Fiat/Chrysler) will see the destruction of their pickup sales - and as Z has previously explained, the first to go will be the ones with the highest profit margin - a profit margin that is propping up all three companies at the moment.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

As a 6 year old I recall regularly helping our local milkman out on his rounds.
His milk float used to seem dizzying fast when he allowed it to reach 30 mph on country lanes. It delivered a massive amount of milk, cream, bread and orange squash on an overnight charge.

There was a story in the papers a year or 2 ago where a mum bought a used milk float to do the school run. Cheap, cheerful completely fit-for-purpose solution that makes me wonder why we're all fixated on £35k+ hi-tech EV cars.

If I remember correctly, milk floats used to just be dozens of 12V car batteries wired together under the floor?


But if you're not worried about being able to go above 30mph (most didn't even get close to that) or be able to go particularly far there are plenty of EV available for much less than £35k. But people want cars, to use as cars.


An old milk float for a school run seems like a pretty good idea, no need to go very far or above 20/30mph in most situations. They'd be great for runs to the shops, tip and so on but not great for the commute or anything else.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

When Leaf's arrived Li-ion was certainly not mature
...

Tesla already use less Cobalt than other BEV's and hope to reduce it to zero, so clearly not mature.

So is LiIon mature tech or not?

You seem to be saying that it is now mature (but wasn't in 2010 when the Leaf was launched), then saying that it still isn't now, because the detail chemistry is still being tickled?