Electric cars

Martyn1981

Transport Evolved article on VW's announcement that they have secured a deal(s) for 50m EV's worth of batteries:

VW Says It Has Secured 50 Million EVs Worth Of Batteries. Here’s What It Really Means

If VW get serious about building large numbers of EV's instead of large numbers of EV concepts, then things could change fast. Cool.


Edit - Bonus article:

Volkswagen Converting Zwickau Automotive Plant To Produce Electric Vehicles

In a move that it believes is the first of its kind in the world for a major car factory, Volkswagen is converting its automotive factory in Zwickau, Germany from the production of internal combustion vehicles to produce electric vehicles. The news this week builds on a higher level announcement that VW issued about the conversion of the Zwickau plant to support electric vehicles late last year.

gzoom

Martyn1981 wrote: »

It's also highly doubtful that Li-ion will be the battery choice of the future (long term) if solid state batts or other cheaper and more energy dense, or faster recharging options develop.

This is just incorrect. Li-ion is already good enough, incase you haven't seen it but a Li-ion powered EV can produce enough power to out perform the fastest combustion cars quite comfortably. Range is not really an issue on anything with a decent pack size, Kona, Niro, any Tesla, iPace all have enough range.

Main barrier is cost, that is the main focus of virtually all battery development NOT pack size increase. Infact battery pack sizes have not got any bigger since 2012, Tesla had a 82kWh usable pack than and not really pushed things that much. But Tesla have tried to reduce pack production costs by introducing more Si into the anode, that resulted in the 90kWh packs been more unstable and suffering worse degredation. The Model 3 packs Tesla have produced actually has less warranty than the orignal 85kWh packs suggesting degredation may have to be worse if lower production costs are to be realised.

Anyone waiting on solid state batteries to make it into any EV will be waiting for a long long while yet, even than it'll be in a hypercar setting like the Nio EP9.

Lithium ion will be back bone to EVs for the next decade, the challenge now is getting production costs down so that EVs don't remain an exclusive premium product.

Martyn1981

gzoom wrote: »

This is just incorrect. Li-ion is already good enough, incase you haven't seen it but a Li-ion powered EV can produce enough power to out perform the fastest combustion cars quite comfortably. Range is not really an issue on anything with a decent pack size, Kona, Niro, any Tesla, iPace all have enough range.

Main barrier is cost, that is the main focus of virtually all battery development NOT pack size increase. Infact battery pack sizes have not got any bigger since 2012, Tesla had a 82kWh usable pack than and not really pushed things that much. But Tesla have tried to reduce pack production costs by introducing more Si into the anode, that resulted in the 90kWh packs been more unstable and suffering worse degredation. The Model 3 packs Tesla have produced actually has less warranty than the orignal 85kWh packs suggesting degredation may have to be worse if lower production costs are to be realised.

Anyone waiting on solid state batteries to make it into any EV will be waiting for a long long while yet, even than it'll be in a hypercar setting like the Nio EP9.

Lithium ion will be back bone to EVs for the next decade, the challenge now is getting production costs down so that EVs don't remain an exclusive premium product.

Correct, but:

It's also highly doubtful that Li-ion will be the battery choice of the future (long term) if solid state batts or other cheaper and more energy dense, or faster recharging options develop.

Panasonic have recently stated that they think solid state batteries are 10yrs away from commercial/economic deployment in EV's.

And my main point about the maturity of Li-ion was price, which you also agreed with. Thanks.

So my points remain, Li-ion is not yet mature, and is unlikely to be the long term choice if solid state batts are successfully developed. So what exactly is incorrect?

almillar

It's certainly a suggestion, but I'd say extremely misleading. Cars are mature*, and electric motors are relatively mature (though Tesla seems to be building more efficient motors than other companies).
However, the single biggest difference between an ICE and a BEV, certainly in size, weight and cost, is the battery and that is nowhere near mature. It's also highly doubtful that Li-ion will be the battery choice of the future (long term) if solid state batts or other cheaper and more energy dense, or faster recharging options develop. Obviously batt prices are nowhere near mature.

I'm talking about the present, Martyn, and you're off into the future. Li-Ion and NiMH are the only batteries in EVs and hybrids. They're both mature technologies. They can't get into cars if they aren't - cars are a touch environment. Li-Ion can be optimised a bit more with heating/cooling, density etc, but it's mostly there. No other battery tech will be on the road within 5 years, I predict. There are many battery technologies in the labs, but they'll take a decade before getting into our cars. For clarity, I'm talking about being able to buy one and drive it.


Edit - in terms of cost, yes, there's more dropping of price per kWh for Li-Ion to happen, that doesn't make it an immature technology.

Martyn1981

I'm talking about the present, Martyn, and you're off into the future.

Of course, because we are talking about BEV's being mature.

BEV's are not yet mature, current batts are obviously not yet mature, and in the medium to long term, there's a good chance that we will develop/adopt a different batt technology to Li-ion.

Only you could start or maintain an argument that a technology is mature because you won't look further forward than 5yrs.

"It's mature if we ignore what could happen in the future!"

almillar

"It's mature if we ignore what could happen in the future!"

Please read what I post. You're talking about 'the electric car' - that existed 100 years ago. That's mature. 'Mature' is about the past, as much as it is about the future.

The 'new breed' of BEV exists because of Li-Ion. That's what made range possible and viable. These EVs are not 'mature' - they've only been around less than 10 years, I agree with you. There are many body styles missing, there are niches (towing) to be filled.

But, I stated that they're a collection of mature technologies. Li-Ion wouldn't have made it into a car if it hadn't proven to be safe to do so. ICE engines have been 'mature' for decades, but plenty of advancements have still been made. Mature is not the end of the road. We've seen batt capacities quickly double in EVs - Renault Zoe, 22kWh in 2014, 40kWh in 2018. That won't happen again with Li-Ion, it's mature in EVs now.

BEV's are not yet mature,

They aren't.

current batts are obviously not yet mature,

They are.

AdrianC

Lithium Ion batteries aren't mature technology, because there's a change that they might change to something else in the future.

Gotcha.

Al - the doubling of battery pack capacity isn't a technology change. It's simply sticking more of the same cells together. A 40 litre fuel tank in an IC car is just as "mature technology" as an 80 litre tank in a different IC car. A 40kWh battery pack is still "mature technology", even though there are have been 80+kWh battery packs on the market for years. Capacity is all about packaging and cost, no more.



You're right that LiIon started to take over from NiCad and NiMH around a decade ago - but that was mostly down to cost reductions, which is also what's made LiIon ubiquitous in so many other consumer devices. LiIon batteries were invented in the 70s, and have been commercially available since the very early 90s.

Martyn1981

Please read what I post. You're talking about 'the electric car' - that existed 100 years ago. That's mature. 'Mature' is about the past, as much as it is about the future.

Have read it, and laughed heartily. In order to start/maintain an argument on EV's and batts being mature, you want to look backwards not forwards, and certainly not past 5yrs. That's not mature, not a way of measuring maturity.

If BEV's are now mature then we won't see any substantial change to their design and price, any substantial change to the Li-ion batts being deployed, and no substantial change to the type of batts being installed.

BEV's are not yet mature.

If batts are mature then please confirm that costs won't fall, the chemistry (particularly Cobalt content) won't change, that energy density won't improve, and that other batt types won't be developed and deployed in the medium to long term.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If BEV's are now mature then we won't see any substantial change to their design and price, any substantial change to the Li-ion batts being deployed, and no substantial change to the type of batts being installed.

So, by that logic, what else is not mature technology?

Internal combustion vehicles.
Home computers.
Mobile phones.
Vacuum cleaners.
Lawnmowers.
Hell, most consumer "tech"...

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

So, by that logic, what else is not mature technology?

Internal combustion vehicles.
Home computers.
Mobile phones.
Vacuum cleaners.
Lawnmowers.
Hell, most consumer "tech"...

Some of those will see substantial changes, some won't. But let's stick to BEV's rather than try to muddy the waters.