Electric cars

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

No, they don't.

The marginal cost of adding on an internal combustion drivetrain to an electric vehicle is more than offset by the lower cost of a much lower performance electric drivetrain and much smaller battery.


If they were more expensive to build than a pure BEV, then they simply wouldn't be on the market.

3 mins to respond, perhaps that's why you got it so wrong? Why do you hate facts and truth so much?

So, back to what I said:

The good news: in 2015, battery-electric vehicles in all four regions were slightly cheaper than legacy gas or diesel vehicles on a TCO basis. Of the three types of electrified vehicle, the pure EV wins out. The TCO for hybrids was higher than that of traditional vehicles in all regions, because they still use fuel, and receive less in the way of incentives. Plug-in hybrids were the most expensive type of vehicle in every region except Japan, where they are eligible for generous subsidies.

Electric Vehicles Have Lowest Total Cost Of Ownership, Study Finds

AdrianC

Ah, my apologies. By "in TOC", I thought you were making up an acronym for "in terms of construction" - referring to their assembly cost - rather than mangling "TCO".

Hybrids have their place - reducing very localised emissions in slow-moving urban traffic - given sufficient battery capacity and performance. Which most don't have. Apart from that, they're mostly greenwash.

Herzlos

AdrianC wrote: »

Hybrids have their place - reducing very localised emissions in slow-moving urban traffic - given sufficient battery capacity and performance. Which most don't have.

Average commute is only 10 miles, with things like supermarket trips less. Are there many Hybrids that can't do 10 miles on battery only?

AdrianC

Herzlos wrote: »

Average commute is only 10 miles, with things like supermarket trips less. Are there many Hybrids that can't do 10 miles on battery only?

Just about every non-plug-in out there, yes.

And that's ignoring urban traffic would be even worse if everybody kept to ZEV-mode acceleration at all times.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Ah, my apologies. By "in TOC", I thought you were making up an acronym for "in terms of construction" - referring to their assembly cost - rather than mangling "TCO".

Hybrids have their place - reducing very localised emissions in slow-moving urban traffic - given sufficient battery capacity and performance. Which most don't have. Apart from that, they're mostly greenwash.

So, once again, your completely false claims are my fault .... sorry. I was thinking total operating costs (TOC), for the ancronym, whereas I should have been using total cost of ownership (TCO). Neither of which suggest cost of production ... but nice attempt at spinning your way out. Strange though that I've mentioned this many times over the year, but it's today you decide to 'misunderstand'.

Is it also my fault that you are claiming F-150 US sales are 22x the production level of the TM3 instead of 2x?

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Depends on the level of batt production and whether it is ramped up fast enough. Hybrid's already cost more than BEV's (and ICE's) in TOC so all they bring to the game is a (great) transitionary solution and lower batt demand. PHEV sales seem to be stalling now (as a percentage) in some countries, whilst BEV sales grow, so we might get a better idea in a few years time.

12yrs sounds like a long time to me to ramp up batt production, but I admit that the ramp up in BEV demand might be greater.

Hi

But that's the issue at hand ...

You're really looking at the choice on the table before the industry CEOs ... bet the company's existence on sufficient batteries being available at a point in time to support a BEV only strategy starting now -or- develop a flexible transient manufacturing strategy involving a mix of HEV, PHEV & BEV which can react to supply chain capabilities with little risk ...

You may think that 12 years is a long time, but in reality there are loads of hurdles that could impact on timescales ... for example, the commencement of relatively simple fracking operations in this country has taken a decade because of a ~7 year delay awaiting investigations, reports, enquiries, court action etc so although we have considerable Lithium resources in the UK's SW which could be accessed using hydraulic brine extraction technologies, it's unlikely that any would be mined in volume within 12 years, so we're really talking about the normal 'developed nation' approach of sourcing such things on an 'over-the-horizon' basis ...

Okay, so what happens in the UK to some extent also happens in most of Europe, therefore processing plant and/or bulk transport needs to be built - that's lots of it and it's needed now ... so, the question revolves around whether the relatively small specialised extraction equipment sector can cope with a step-change in global demand for their product & how long their lead-times are ...

These are just the tip of the iceberg of issues that need to be addressed ... you simply cannot command something to happen and expect it to do so immediately as you've already alluded to .. "Depends on the level of batt production and whether it is ramped up fast enough." ... from a CEO's position the decision to move all production to BEVs by 2040 was already plagued with supply constraint issues, so whilst there's talk of pulling the 'deadline' forward to 2032 they'll see this as a potentially fatal move, making it even more likely that PHEV development & manufacturing will be prioritised over BEVs by the major volume OEMs ...

Strategic decisions to support a technology step-change within a couple of decades need to be made now ... talk about pulling the deadline forward by almost a decade provide no confidence to the industry that is looking to invest & provide that change. Unless there is confidence, the change won't happen in 2032 and the resultant discussion & resistance makes it more likely that 2040 would be a tighter than necessary too ...

HTH
Z

zeupater

Herzlos wrote: »

Average commute is only 10 miles, with things like supermarket trips less. Are there many Hybrids that can't do 10 miles on battery only?

Hi

I tend to agree ... the recent deadline timescale discussions have really related to a comparison of PHEV to BEV on the basis of planning for & mitigating known issues & worries on constrained battery supply to support rapidly expanding EV demand.

The two EVs used as examples in the recent discussions have been the Prius PHEV and a Kona as per ...

zeupater wrote: »

... the Hyundai Kona you raised in an earlier post may have a range of 260+ miles with a 64kWh battery pack whereas the PHEV version of the Toyota Prius has 8.8kWh, thus allowing 7x more vehicles to be built whilst there are supply constraints ...

... describing a PHEV that has the technical capability (25-30 mile EV range) to complete the majority of journeys in EV mode for the vast majority of average mileage owners.

HTH
Z

Herzlos

AdrianC wrote: »

Just about every non-plug-in out there, yes.

Sorry I thought we were talking about plug-in Hybrids. I thought non-plug-ins were on the way out, and generally don't allow you to run on battery for long (being that the charge is almost all regenerative braking?)

And that's ignoring urban traffic would be even worse if everybody kept to ZEV-mode acceleration at all times.

I can't imagine that a small battery would struggle to keep up with stop/start urban traffic, with it's torque profile and response rate. I'd assume most of the delays will be from driver response rate.

AnotherJoe

Herzlos wrote: »

Average commute is only 10 miles, with things like supermarket trips less. Are there many Hybrids that can't do 10 miles on battery only?

The issue is, many of those PHEV's arent being plugged in, on the grounds they are essentially a BIK scam.

Stageshoot

AnotherJoe wrote: »

The issue is, many of those PHEV's arent being plugged in, on the grounds they are essentially a BIK scam.

Hopefully now with the grant being removed and them being removed from Congestion Charge exemption is a couple of years we will see the death of these things. All they do is clog up charging spaces (In London as they dont have to pay to park then) for BEVs that actually need them.