Electric cars

Uxb

docmatt wrote: »

I haven’t read all 127 pages but ordered a new Tesla P100d last week, Jan delivery.

I got my replacement standard ICE local runabout car recently
Cost £1100

Herzlos

There will likely be a surge of people panic buying exotic ICE cars (i suspect some of the manufacturers will pre-register a lot of stock to keep the dealerships going for a while), but by 2040 most of the new runabouts will be electric anyway purely from a cost point of view.

Uxb wrote: »

I got my replacement standard ICE local runabout car recently
Cost £1100

New, and with all the features and running costs of the P100d? Impressive.

AnotherJoe

Uxb wrote: »

Nope
I expect a surge in sales if the deadline is ever kept to as people rush to buy up the last remaining produced.

Why would people rush to buy the last remaining product when it's more expensive and restricted as to where it can drive ? (let's say we are looking at 2035 for this last minute rush so many city centre bans will be in force by then, and battery prices will have fallen far enough that they are cheaper to buy let alone run than ICE)

I don't recall people rushing to buy Betamax VCRs back in the day when it was clear Betamax had lost the battle, AFAICR sales withered away and they were going cheap. By 2035 the only people who want ICE will be hobbyists who like to tinker with engines or buy "legacy" vintage cars since electric cars will be far superior in all ways. No different to what happened to horses or indeed steam cars no doubt there are a few running those but I bet there wasn't a rush to buy steam cars when they stopped making them.

And of course once manufacturers see more and more people buying electric they will start cutting back on ICE production anyway so this hypothetical last minute rush will be for a handful
of specialist cars. The average Focus or Golf buyer will just buy the cheaper smoother faster electric equivalent and sales of the ICE version equivalent will fall off a cliff and manufacturers will stop selling them well before any ban occurs.

AnotherJoe

buglawton wrote: »

Depreciation on EVs looks shattering at the moment.
E.g 2014 Nissan Leaf £7000.
https://drive-green.co.uk/product/2014-white-nissan-leaf-acenta-2/

Yep, initial depreciation is very high on some EVs (it doesn't seem to be on Tesla's they seem to hold value well) making many s/h EVs a bargain at present since a further drop is underpinned by the batteries meaning even a write off will be worth about £4K.
Quite a few peopel are reporting that they have bought s/h Leaf and resold 2 years later for minimal price drop.
That's why I have my new EV on lease, although you pay to some extent for depreciation the manufacturer seems to cover much of it. That's doesn't work for very high mileage though in that case fuel savings will make up a lot of the difference.

AnotherJoe

Herzlos wrote: »

I might be wrong actually, I was thinking of another car (which one escapes me).


This one is a 3.5 year old car with 154,000 miles on the clock (44k/year is pretty high, taxi?). I suspect you'd see similar pricing on an equivalent ICE.


Edit: I was getting it confused with the Renault Zoe, which you can get mega cheap but usually need a battery lease.

You are. Despite your footnote it would be less confusing just to delete that post in case skim readers think that most Leafs have a rental battery which they don't, only the initial ones did. Renault still do, making IMNSHO false claims about the cost of Zoe's and you sometimes see Zoe owners stating something like "I only pay £150/m for my car" without considering the fact they are also paying £99/m for battery lease

AdrianC

Point of order...

DriveGreen do not state whether that comes with owned or leased battery - which strongly suggests it's leased. It's priced similarly to leased-battery Leafs (Leaves?) of the same age, but with a third of the mileage.

If it IS owned-battery, then can I suggest far better value is out there?
This one for only £1,800 more?
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201809210722560
5,500 miles from new...
Or £1,500 more?
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201808249802228
41k


There may be others - most vendors seem shy (or clueless) about stating the battery situation.

Martyn1981

Uxb wrote: »

Nope
I expect a surge in sales if the deadline is ever kept to as people rush to buy up the last remaining produced.

A surge in demand? So you expect demand for ICE's to stay steady right into the late 2030's, before a surge takes it even higher just before 2040. Interesting.

Personally I expect hybrid sales will be dropping buy 2030, and ICE only sales will be close to zero.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

A surge in demand? So you expect demand for ICE's to stay steady right into the late 2030's, before a surge takes it even higher just before 2040. Interesting.

Personally I expect hybrid sales will be dropping buy 2030, and ICE only sales will be close to zero.

Hi

More likely that hybrid production would continue to accelerate well past 2030, not peaking until the pure ICE 2040 sales ban comes into place ...moreover, if the threshold is brought forward to ~2032, the path of sales growth of BEVs will likely suffer as the industry takes a pragmatic & protective approach to their businesses & concentrate on making whatever they can that both conforms to restrictive requirements & addresses supply-chain bottlenecks ...

Regarding a possible 'surge in demand' for ICE's immediately prior to the 2040 deadline (as raised by Uxb), well that's possible if anyone was to believe that steps won't be taken in the intervening years to encourage consumers to start shunning pure ICEs, particularly those with higher emissions .... it's almost certain that the new vehicle taxation structure will be 'adjusted' on a periodic (/annual?) basis in order to make decisions on ICEV purchases far less attractive ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

More likely that hybrid production would continue to accelerate well past 2030, not peaking until the pure ICE 2040 sales ban comes into place

HTH
Z

Depends on the level of batt production and whether it is ramped up fast enough. Hybrid's already cost more than BEV's (and ICE's) in TOC so all they bring to the game is a (great) transitionary solution and lower batt demand. PHEV sales seem to be stalling now (as a percentage) in some countries, whilst BEV sales grow, so we might get a better idea in a few years time.

12yrs sounds like a long time to me to ramp up batt production, but I admit that the ramp up in BEV demand might be greater.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hybrid's already cost more than BEV's (and ICE's) in TOC

No, they don't.

The marginal cost of adding on an internal combustion drivetrain to an electric vehicle is more than offset by the lower cost of a much lower performance electric drivetrain and much smaller battery.


If they were more expensive to build than a pure BEV, then they simply wouldn't be on the market.