Electric cars

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

just think how much they could have made if they didn't operate a continuous improvement policy! ..

The Model S is 6yo now. Where's the mid-life facelift, let alone news of an imminent replacement? By normal industry model cycles, the facelift would have been a couple of years ago (and the X's imminent), while the replacement would be due within a year or two.

Unsurprisingly, Musk announced a week ago that launch of the Model Y (the 3-based SUV to the X's S-based SUV - so the X3/Q5/GLC-class rival) will be delayed from 2019 until at least 2020. And, as we discussed recently, that's where the majority of this sector's sales are now, not 3-series/A4/C-class).

Anyway, they're in profit

For one quarter out of three so far in this FY, with the cumulative year WAY down.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Am I? Then how come I won the bet?

Umm, the bet was over Q3, while that comment was replying to your attempt to deny FYTD18 being down $1b, remember? Let's see what Q4 and the full FY comes out to. It's safe to say it will still be negative. The question is now one of how far north of $750m loss it is for the full year - or, in other words, can the sum of two profitable quarters cancel out one of the two loss-making quarters? It's going to be a massive improvement on FY17's $2.25bn total loss, sure, but how will it compare to FY16's $773m?

buglawton

The Tesla profitability news will spur far Eastern manufacturers to expand in EV. It should be profitable - due to relative simplicity of the drivetrain - and competition will drive prices down. Oh yeah, and Dyson is seriously going to enter the fray now.

AdrianC

buglawton wrote: »

Oh yeah, and Dyson is seriously going to enter the fray now.

Dyson have been working on it for three years already...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/dysons-electric-car-development-could-become-the-next-tesla
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/26/james-dyson-electric-car-2020


This week's announcement was just that it's going to be built in Singapore. Not the most obvious location for a mainstream car factory...

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

... Unsurprisingly, Musk announced a week ago that launch of the Model Y (the 3-based SUV to the X's S-based SUV - so the X3/Q5/GLC-class rival) will be delayed from 2019 until at least 2020. And, as we discussed recently, that's where the majority of this sector's sales are now, not 3-series/A4/C-class) ...

Hi

Yes it is unsurprising that investment in further model development, tooling & production has been push back a little, just at the same time that they're looking at pulling forward plans to expand production through opening facilities in China, as discussed in a couple of recent posts ... you wouldn't want the company spreading it's resources too thinly would you? ....

Just think, within a few years Tesla capacity will be well over 1million units/year with little direct R&D to achieve this jump,securing a position in the top-20 vehicle manufacturing groups by volume with the TM3 potentially ranking in the top5 selling cars in the world, possibly the best selling if demand requires that production assets are sweated a little ....

Anyway, although cars are cars, the basic shape, interior design & colour preferences of those cars is no more than a mere fad ... history would dictate that what's popular today will be out of fashion in a few years so there's a reasonable chance that the majority of sales will remain within the B, C & D platforms and that those basic platforms will become even more dominant over time as EV range becomes relevant to the purchase decision ... so don't worry about the TM3 being irrelevant to current fads, it's probably sitting just where it needs to be to satisfy the market it's aimed at! ...

HTH
Z

buglawton

AdrianC wrote: »

Dyson have been working on it for three years already...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/dysons-electric-car-development-could-become-the-next-tesla
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/26/james-dyson-electric-car-2020

This week's announcement was just that it's going to be built in Singapore. Not the most obvious location for a mainstream car factory...

With Britain's weak-kneed commitment to EV, maybe Dyson sees the Far East as a better potential market.

AdrianC

buglawton wrote: »

With Britain's weak-kneed commitment to EV, maybe Dyson sees the Far East as a better potential market.

Almost certainly - and Singapore has better market access to the EU than the UK will, going by current signed deals...

But have you ever been to Singapore? It's a very densely developed island city, connected to Malaysia (where he builds the rest of the range) by a single busy causeway, albeit with a big container port.


Far East production? Absolutely, and inevitable. But Singapore...?

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Umm, the bet was over Q3, while that comment was replying to your attempt to deny FYTD18 being down $1b, remember?

No, sorry, I don't remember denying that. I simply pointed out that the purpose of your comment was for FUD purposes. Still, at least the bottom of your barrel is now squeaky clean. Sore loser?

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

No, sorry, I don't remember denying that.

Then let me remind you...

AdrianC wrote:

Let's hope this is sustainable. Still north of $1.1bn cumulative loss for the year, of course.

Martyn1981 wrote:

LOL, deny till you die! The cumulative loss is due to the investment expenditure that led to the profit, just saying.

AdrianC wrote:

Simple addition of the three quarters, Martyn...

Martyn1981 wrote:

Nope, sad attempt at FUD.

The past losses have been well explained on here already as investment for future profitability.

It's very simple - this quarter's $311m profit has taken the cumulative profit/loss for the first three quarters of the year to "only" losing a billion dollars.


I'm looking there simply at the headline reported figures. Can we, please, agree that is accurate?

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Then let me remind you...

Go on then, remind me where I said:

AdrianC wrote: »

while that comment was replying to your attempt to deny FYTD18 being down $1b, remember?

You do appreciate that the word cumulative (as in cumulative loss) includes both the profitable quarter and the two unprofitable quarters, don't you?

Whilst i'm waiting, perhaps you could finally provide the evidence that F-150 US sales are 22x TM3 production, and evidence supporting all your 'conspiracy theory' claims about the Tesla semi (it has been nearly a year, and I have reminded you repeatedly)?


I appreciate that this latest attempt by you to post false claims about what I've said is merely a diversion to distract from the bigger issue that Tesla has now proven their business model three times, but that doesn't mean I won't point out your constant FUD.

This fun article today reminded me of you:

Do you think if someone has been wrong about Tesla for ~10 years, maybe it’s just time to move on and write about something else?

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

You do appreciate that the word cumulative (as in cumulative loss) includes both the profitable quarter and the two unprofitable quarters, don't you?

Yes, I do.



Q1 $709m loss

Q2 $718m loss
Q3 $311m profit


$709m + $718m = $1,427m loss for H1.
$1,427m - $311m = $1,116m loss over Q1-3.


Now, are we happy with that?

Whilst i'm waiting, perhaps you could finally provide the evidence that F-150...

<yawn> Just because you're STILL incapable of reading the post in question, in which all the figures and sources were given, and the maths was explained... Go on, go back and have another look, as I've suggested you do several times...