Electric cars

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

...but even adjusting their report down to a $35k model, then that's a 25% profit margin, which Tesla kinda acknowledged with a wink and a nod, and by not saying it was wrong when asked about it...

Thank you for agreeing with and providing official semi-confirmation of my scepticism about Zeu's suggested 50% margin in those extra cars.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Thank you for agreeing with and providing official semi-confirmation of my scepticism about Zeu's suggested 50% margin in those extra cars.

Hi

Absolutely not, the confirmation isn't there at all ... the analysis behind the referenced articles suggests that the "... cost analysis resulted in materials and logistics costs of $18,000 and labor costs of $10,000 for a total cost potential cost of $28,000." ... on an average selling price of $50k that would suggest a business contribution of around $22k (44%). Furthermore, if there's a potential for 30% margin on sales when in full production, then the breakdown using those figures on the same basis could be ...
(A)
Mat - 36
Var - 20
Fix - 14
Profit - 30

---

Sell - 100

... yet I'm particularly sceptical on how the material cost has been derived - if it's based on modular component costs when sourced through usual supply chain then the supplier's own overheads, labour & profit have been included within the analysis as 'material'. However, Tesla's stated intent is to increase their own added value by pulling a larger than normal proportion of component manufacture 'in-house', therefore lowering the material component, transferring variable & fixed costs to the appropriate buckets and removing compounded supply chain margins, thus reducing overall costs and pushing the contribution to sales margin considerably above the suggested 44% ...

The issue here is that what I've been attempting to convey to you isn't particularly related to Tesla or the TM3, it's how profitability is seen in business terms and how increased production volumes improve margins and why product isn't profitable until a build threshold is achieved as well as what the difference between overall profit margin on all units in a period & the margin above the fixed overhead recovery threshold is ... what you think is actually irrelevant because that's how industry thinks & works!

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Thank you for agreeing with and providing official semi-confirmation of my scepticism about Zeu's suggested 50% margin in those extra cars.

Thanks, I was hoping you would post exactly that claim proving you are nothing but FUD.

I figured if I inserted any statement with a lower profit percentage than 50% that you would jump on it and use it out of context ..... FUD.

So back in the real world, we are talking a 25% gross margin on the base car price, not the ASP of the base car, nor the ASP of all the TM3's being sold / to be sold.

But most important that figure also reflects fixed costs, and Z has been extremely patient with you explaining how the profit margin increases (on later cars) once the production numbers are high enough to cover the fixed costs.

None of this is complicated, none of this is contraversial, none of this is opinion, it is simple/basic economics, yet you are trying to argue against it by hopping around from one claim to another, and using statements or figures out of context.

So, once again, thank you for confirming that you are simply on here to spread anti-EV and especially anti-Tesla FUD.

I assume the next 2yrs will be spent in non-stop attacks on VW now that they've stated they will build a better car than Tesla, by 2020, and at half the cost.

PS Are you now ready to explain your claim (that you recently stood by) that US F-150 sales are 22x greater than TM3 production, or are you now ready to admit that is was nothing other than hyper bloated FUD?

buglawton

Not sure if I should start a new thread called 'Let's talk about electric cars in the real world and avoid point-scoring 3 dimensional chess competitions'.

Oh well here goes anyway.

Interesting review of the Hyundia Kona by Jeremy Clarkson in todays Sunday Times.

He likes the car (that's saying something). But most of his review was about the farcical charger situation currently in the UK when you want to do some real life travel. ICV cuckoos sitting in the rare charging bays. Charger plugs in but trickle charges. Charger refused to be unplugged because you need an app to do that. But app completely failed to install/work. His review vehicle was delivered without a home charging connector, apparently because it takes unfeasibly long to charge at home.

All in all it looks like all the lip service the government has been paying EV takeup was just that. The countries where EV takeup will obviously be ones where the government actually governs.

Stageshoot

816 MILE DAY TRIP IN THE KONA EV

After having 2 weeks away and not using the Kona, we arrived home Wednesday Lunch to find out an urgent trip to Scotland was in order as Vicky needed to visit a site that was closing down at short notice and a couple of other chores.

We left home at 2am Thursday morning, first leg was 270 miles to Glasgow, found an Instavolt Rapid in Glasgow on a petrol station of all places (But selected as it was close to an eatery for breakfast).

Left the car on the rapid for 1hr 11mins while we ate, and came back to it at 90% and 49kwh added

From there up to Fort William, then the site that was closing in Oban, some time there then down to Loch Lomond, from there back to Glasgow for evening rush hour.

Stopped on the same rapid charger we had used in the morning and nipped off for an evening meal. As it was we were there for exactly 1hr 11mins again and added 48kwh this time.

Set off back down towards home, only to find the A66 was closed and as the divert was very cross country decided to stick to the motorway via stoke which is a bit longer.

Looking at the figures we had the power to scrape into home without a further charge, but as we were passing another Instavolt that was next to the to road we stopped to put a bit of extra power in.

Arrived home at just before 2am. Ending a 24 hour day trip of 816 miles.

We have done the same trip before in the BMW i3 Rex and that took 7 or 8 recharge stops and 2 tanks of fuel. Making totally impractical.

The Kona was just as easy as doing it in our old Volvo V40

The only difference at the end was the fuel cost was £0 rather than £100

Technically 2 Hours 22Mins charging, but as that time was used as regular meal stops it took nothing out of our regular travel time.

Brilliant long distance car..

AdrianC

Stageshoot wrote: »

Left the car on the rapid for 1hr 11mins while we ate, and came back to it at 90% and 49kwh added
...
Stopped on the same rapid charger we had used in the morning and nipped off for an evening meal. As it was we were there for exactly 1hr 11mins again and added 48kwh this time.
...

Looking at the figures we had the power to scrape into home without a further charge, but as we were passing another Instavolt that was next to the to road we stopped to put a bit of extra power in.

Great. It really is great that that's possible. 800+ miles in a day is more than enough for anybody, and to be able to do that on three charges shows that range anxiety (given charger availability) is definitely a thing of the past, once that becomes the norm for EVs. Yes, that would have been a single fill-up in an IC car, but as you say, food stops (above and beyond a grabbed Ginsters and Twix) do become more of a requirement on 13/14-hour driving days.



But...

the fuel cost was £0 rather than £100

So you put 100+kWh in, but somebody else paid for it?
Who? How sustainable IS that model, once EV traffic volumes rise?


Oh, hold on.
Instavolt aren't free, are they? They charge 35p/kWh - so there was actually £35+ of "fuel" cost.
https://instavolt.co.uk/rates/
4.3p/mile in fuel cost, plus the cost to go from the full charge at the start to full after you returned home. Let's be optimistic, and call it a round 5p.
That's equivalent to 120mpg at £1.33/litre. So about half the price of IC.

Strip the fuel duty off the diesel to remove the substantial tax advantage, though, and the story changes. Public charging is 20% VAT, so the same as on fuel - so we'll ignore that.

£1.33/litre at the pump less 59p/litre fuel duty (and the VAT on that duty) is 63.5p/litre.
5p/mile is the fuel cost for 57mpg. Easily achievable.

(BTW, you may wish to edit the Google map to take your home address out)

ElefantEd

You can't strip out the fuel duty though, can you, you have to pay it.



If anything, because fuel duty has not risen for a number of years, it is petrol and diesel that are being subsidised! Or are you also stripping out the costs of air pollution, climate change etc etc as well?

AdrianC

ElefantEd wrote: »

You can't strip out the fuel duty though, can you, you have to pay it.

You think government will just watch that nice, easy revenue source disappear, without taxing EVs? The VED gap partially closed last year, remember, with £40k+ EVs being subject to the same £310-for-five-years premium as non-EV, and PHEVs being subject to the exact same subsequent-year VED as everything else.

Or are you also stripping out the costs of air pollution, climate change etc etc as well?

Transport - ALL transport, including haulage, rail, aviation and maritime - accounts for less than a quarter of climate change emissions in the UK. Yet absolutely nothing else is taxed nearly as highly as road fuel. A substantial proportion of CO2 - closing on half that of transport - comes from the construction industry, which receives VAT reductions.

Herzlos

It's almost guaranteed that the government will put some form of additional duty onto EVs at some point, and that this is an early adopter perk. But at the same time I don't see petrol/diesel getting cheaper either.



You've shown with the fudging how much cheaper an EV is, even in the kind of usage you'd claim EV's aren't any good for. For people doing that regularly saving £35 a trip is huge, for the people that don't do that usage and can charge at home/work, the price differential is going to be even greater.

Car_54

Herzlos wrote: »

It's almost guaranteed that the government will put some form of additional duty onto EVs at some point, and that this is an early adopter perk.

You're probably right, but there is no logical reason for the shortfall in VED to be clawed back exclusively from vehicle users.


The switch away from fossil fuels will (allegedly) benefit all of society, so there is a good case for recovering the shortfall through universal taxation, i.e. increased income tax and/or VAT.


This would also be very simple to administer, and would avoid the costs of implementing road pricing.