Electric cars

knightstyle

Just had a Smart for4 electric car for a day as a loan car. I really liked it, good acceleration, short bonnet and 4 seats, but the boot is small and they are so expensive!
Bring the price down and I will buy one as a second car.

almillar

Just had a Smart for4 electric car for a day as a loan car.

I looked into one to replace my Zoe, and test drove the for2 electric - an absolute hoot, with a ridiculous turning circle. 17kWh and 7kW charging (that's small, and slow) is a killer though, and would have been a downgrade from my Zoe (22kWh, 22kW). And yes they're expensive. The for4 has the same numbers, even though it's obviously bigger. 22kW charging is coming, or here, which is great for me, but a 17kWh battery isn't good enough for me in the for4. Shared tech with Renault, including the R-Link stuff, but all just looks nicer. Just give me a bigger battery and I'm in!

greengiant00

As you say, it is just around the corner that all cars will be electric.
But i am going to wait until the national charging infastructre is up to scratch.

buglawton

The deep puzzle is why EV prices are coming down so slowly. OK, demand exceeds supply on most models, manufacturers can charge what the market will bear etc, and justify it with 'R&D costs' like a new wonder drug has just been developed by them.

But... the part count of the entire EV drive chain is a small fraction of ICE. The battery is a well-known cost. So by all rights the retail price should be dropping like a stone. Does it need an entire ICE car factory to close down and switch to EV, and flood the market, to cause a price crash yet still making a profit?

silverwhistle

Perhaps one of the manufacturers will gamble, but it's going to need the battery supply situation resolved. The shortage of Konas and Ioniqs, for example, shows that there is substantial demand there even at current higher prices. As a second-hand buyer I want the situation resolved so that the current premium on SH EV cars disappears. At the moment price wise I could only consider an older Leaf and it wouldn't meet my requrements. If I had a regular commute it would save me enough money to consider, but I don't and can't!

knightstyle

Another problem with the Smart for4 is that most quick charge points around here do not have the same charging plug.
Why?

Gloomendoom

buglawton wrote: »

But... the part count of the entire EV drive chain is a small fraction of ICE. The battery is a well-known cost. So by all rights the retail price should be dropping like a stone. Does it need an entire ICE car factory to close down and switch to EV, and flood the market, to cause a price crash yet still making a profit?

It depends on how you count the parts.

How many parts in an EV battery? How many parts in an IC engine?

buglawton

Gloomendoom wrote: »

It depends on how you count the parts.

How many parts in an EV battery? How many parts in an IC engine?

I'll simply repeat, EV has a small fraction of drivetrain parts. And as I already said, battery is a well known cost element hence the battery leasing deals. Logically the manufacturing costs should be as low/lower than ICE. Are EV manufacturers factoring into the price the lost revenue from all the consumables and servicing that won't exist?

silverwhistle

Piaggio are introducing a new electric Vespa in the autumn, at least in Italy where it'll cost in the region of 6k euros, according to the Italian paper I read. Maximum range of 100k but with better torque, acceleration and climbing ability than a similar 50cc scooter. I can imagine quite a market in London when it makes it here, although us poorer types would probably go for the cheap Chinese version!

Martyn1981

buglawton wrote: »

The deep puzzle is why EV prices are coming down so slowly. OK, demand exceeds supply on most models, manufacturers can charge what the market will bear etc, and justify it with 'R&D costs' like a new wonder drug has just been developed by them.

But... the part count of the entire EV drive chain is a small fraction of ICE. The battery is a well-known cost. So by all rights the retail price should be dropping like a stone. Does it need an entire ICE car factory to close down and switch to EV, and flood the market, to cause a price crash yet still making a profit?

I'm not sure that prices are falling that slowly. We saw significant increases in the Leaf and Zoe battery packs for little change in price. Tesla dropped the price of their big bruisers by about $5k a year or so back, and the price of the TM3 (regular or long range) is reasonable compared to similar size batts (or smaller) from a few years back.

The main problem at the moment is battery supply, Panasonic/Gigafactory production has to keep ramping up, and even the supply of Cobalt is an issue.

But ...... your point about a whole factory is still important, since overall EV production is still relatively small and production scale is clearly crucial as demonstrated by the losses on the Bolt, and the need for Tesla to exceed 5,000 TM3's per week to become profitable.

Personally I think EV's have crossed a crucial threshold now where demand is growing but supply is still relatively limited, which will keep prices high ....... but prices are low enough to justify an EV over an ICE in more and more scenarios, which will push up demand ....... rinse and repeat.

We'll get there but the disruption is going to be huge for the large legacy manufacturers.

PS when demand and supply start to balance out, and battery production has ramped enough, I suspect the price reductions going forward will be significant. Finger in the air guess - 10yrs?