Electric cars

Martyn1981

Forgot the big news of the day:

Solar and EVs to grab 10% of fossil fuel market share within decade, says study

For EVs, current adoption rates are likely to accelerate, leading to a 35% share of the road transport market by 2035. This would see oil and coal demand peak around 2020, with approximately two million barrels a day of oil displaced by 2025 and as much as 16 million barrels a day by 2040.

“There are a number of low-carbon technologies about to achieve critical mass decades before some companies expect,” said Carbon Tracker’s head of research James Leaton.

Car_54

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Forgot the big news of the day:

Solar and EVs to grab 10% of fossil fuel market share within decade, says study

If you think that is the big news of the day then you need to get a grasp of reality.

News is something that has actually happened, not some prediction of what might happen in a few years' time, AKA guesswork.

Martyn1981

Car_54 wrote: »

If you think that is the big news of the day then you need to get a grasp of reality.

News is something that has actually happened, not some prediction of what might happen in a few years' time, AKA guesswork.

Cheer up.

Within the context of the thread I posted it on, it is big news, as it's pointing to the disruption point/effect of EV's, a point we may be hitting soon.

Perhaps if you'd read it, you'd have spotted the importance of 'disruption' to markets, technology, industry etc before it happens, as waiting till after is too late:

In analyzing the recent cost declines in solar – with modules falling to record-low prices in 2016 – the report calculates that fossil fuels will see around 10% of their typical market share lost to PV and electric cars within ten years.

This may not seem like a lot, but the report adds that when the U.S. coal mining sector lost a similar market share, it all-but collapsed. Indeed, between 2008 and 2013, Europe’s five major utilities lost more than $100 billion in value in the wake of an 8% increase in renewable energy deployment.

Car_54

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Cheer up.

Within the context of the thread I posted it on, it is big news, as it's pointing to the disruption point/effect of EV's, a point we may be hitting soon.

Perhaps if you'd read it, you'd have spotted the importance of 'disruption' to markets, technology, industry etc before it happens, as waiting till after is too late:

My point was that, whatever the context, a prediction is not 'big news'. It's someone's best guess, whether it be an economic analyst or Mystic Meg.

"Analyst predicts future accurately and consistently" - now that would be big news.

RHemmings

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Forgot the big news of the day:

Solar and EVs to grab 10% of fossil fuel market share within decade, says study

Only 10% Disappointing.

Martyn1981

Car_54 wrote: »

My point was that, whatever the context, a prediction is not 'big news'. It's someone's best guess, whether it be an economic analyst or Mystic Meg.

"Analyst predicts future accurately and consistently" - now that would be big news.

That's quite funny. I was chatting on another forum recently with someone who'd bought a new diesel in November and was complaining that in just 2 months they'd become 'evil' and he'd lost a fortune in resale value.

I asked if he was aware of all the predictions, issues, news articles, proposed bans from European cities etc etc over the last 4 years, but he said no, there hadn't been any.

I guess one man's trends, with cost curves, rollouts, factories tooling up, publicity, popularity, suitability and inflexion points, are another man's 'astrology'. Till that man takes his head out of the sand.

The future's coming!

Martyn1981

RHemmings wrote: »

Only 10% Disappointing.

I was thinking that too, but you have to consider churn rate too. So if EV's could have a 10% impact on FF in just 10yrs then they will need to grow to (and beyond) 10% of sales by then, which is quite a shift.

At that point they'll have reach normality, so for jobs in which they can compare and compete, the choice will simply come down to economics, and they are close to winning that fight. From then on the switch should be dramatic.

Obviously we are nowhere near the situation that diesel is now in, where folk, especially near or in major cities, need to consider the future value of their purchase, but that will kick in at some point for ICE buyers, which could speed up the change.

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Obviously we are nowhere near the situation that diesel is now in

Pleased I got rid of my oil burner 14 months ago. This year I shall be swapping petrol for battery electric.

gzoom

http://www.financialexpress.com/photos/business-gallery/536047/world-largest-solar-power-plant-adani-group-tamil-nadu-india-features-and-highlights/

Apparently built in just 9 months, 600MW in India. So just 6 of these installations will equal output from Hinkley Point C, but it needs to be coupled with battery storage to give constant/reliable power supply without all the complication of building/running a nuclear power station....

UK have more than enough wind resources to do something similar but the current government simply don't have the ability to look beyond past technologies.

In Germany wind turbines produce so much power they have to be shut down to stop overloading the grid, again battery energy storage will sort out that problem whilst enabling a transition away from fossil/nuclear power generation.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/11/germany-takes-steps-to-roll-back-renewable-energy-revolution

Batteries are going to be HUGE buissness in the coming decade. No wonder LG/Samsung/Panasonic are all busy gearing up their production capacity.

We are on the brink of an energy revolution with a dramatic shift away from fossil, EVs are only part of the answer, something Tesla recognise. The future cannot come fast enough.

AdrianC

gzoom wrote: »

http://www.financialexpress.com/photos/business-gallery/536047/world-largest-solar-power-plant-adani-group-tamil-nadu-india-features-and-highlights/

Apparently built in just 9 months, 600MW in India. So just 6 of these installations will equal output from Hinkley Point C, but it needs to be coupled with battery storage to give constant/reliable power supply without all the complication of building/running a nuclear power station....

UK have more than enough wind supply to do something similar but the current government simply don't have the ability to look beyond past technologies.

Batteries are going to be BIG buissness in the coming decade.

10km2 of equatorial Indian sunshine to generate 600MW. China is building an 850MW using 27km2.
Meanwhile, UK consumption is 45GW.

So that'd be 1,450km2 at the Chinese power density - or damn near the entire area of South Yorkshire.
All I can say is that I grew up in Sheffield, so can only say that while there are undoubtedly merits to burying the entire area under solar cells, I spot a bit of a meteorological flaw in the plan...