Electric cars

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

You say "why the negative pedantry" - perhaps a better question is why the fanboi loyalty and refusal to accept that Tesla really aren't doing anything THAT different?

Fair enough, perhaps my positivity towards EV's gave you that impression, and you feel the need to vent your issues with Tesla. But personally I see what they are doing as significant in the promotion of EV's.

Similarly their links to PV, solar tiles, stationary storage and EV connectivity also seem to be better at packaging all of these related items together and driving those markets too.

I'm 100% certain that the EV market wouldn't be where it is today without the publicity that Tesla has brought, especially since they approached the market from the top down, bringing 'sexy' to the EV market, with progressive price drops and production number increases with each model as they head towards the more average US market.

AdrianC wrote: »

The maths quite simply does not stack up for them, and they WILL come falling down in an unholy expensive collapse sooner or later.

Do you really believe that? That's an extreme position/projection.

You can bet against Elon, but I won't.

I also find it strange that we have good news from the EV industry and you post negative comments. But the destruction of the UK wind and PV industries, with the ROCs scheme ending in April, brought out positive comments from you for the future ...... despite all of the campaigns trying to get the government to revise their position.

Maybe it's a just a 'lost in translation' issue, and you are more positive on these issues than I realised, and I'm more balanced than you think.

Regardless, all the best.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Fair enough, perhaps my positivity towards EV's gave you that impression, and you feel the need to vent your issues with Tesla. But personally I see what they are doing as significant in the promotion of EV's.

Yes, that's exactly what they ARE doing very well indeed. You call it promotion, I call it hype. Either way, it's marketing that's their real USP.

Similarly their links to PV, solar tiles, stationary storage and EV connectivity also seem to be better at packaging all of these related items together and driving those markets too.

Mmm. Their solar tiles are nothing new, nor are the domestic and industrial storage, and they're already finding the costs of subsidising the "free" charging so unsustainable that they've pulled it for new purchases.

Do you really believe that? That's an extreme position/projection.

Yes, absolutely I believe it - and I don't think it's that extreme.

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=TSLA:NSQ
2016 losses up from $220m to $890m, despite revenue increasing from $3.2bn to $4bn, largely because cost of goods up from 72% of revenue to 77%. How long can that rate of haemorrhage continue?

https://www.quora.com/How-much-government-subsidies-did-Tesla-Motors-receive-by-2015
2014 total US government subsidy of $2.4bn... Now, how do we think Uncle-cousin-daddy Donny is going to like that continuing? What's going to happen when it stops? Half of that subsidy is in the form of state tax breaks for the gigafactory - which is going to require about $100bn of investment to fully qualify. Where are they going to get $100bn...?

To put that number in context, and if you want proof of "hype", then just look at their market capitalisation. $40bn, against $49bn for Ford (with profits larger than Tesla's total revenue) and $55bn for GM (with profits more than three time's Tesla's revenue).

Again, for context... VAG spent about $60bn (and issued a profit warning) developing just the modular platform that's under the Golf VII. Platform development costs are so high that the mainstream manufacturers share the costs and the platforms.

Meanwhile, Elon's throwing ever more money at playing spaceships.

I also find it strange that we have good news from the EV industry and you post negative comments.

Reality does tend to cut through marketing(/hype/promotion).

NigeWick

Strider590 wrote: »

Solar roadways is one the latest things and it's been thoroughly debunked, yet people still bang on about it. It takes a while for the people who believe the hype, to actually come down to earth and read the facts.

I did not mention solar roadways, although the French are trialling one as we write.

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I for one can't get my head around the solar roadways idea. It seems plain nuts!

PV is very cheap, and it's easy to install, and there is no shortage of places to stick it. So why anyone wants to make it tough enough for traffic to drive on it, is beyond me.

Solar road going towards induction charging on motorways and A roads? That would mean smaller batteries and no range anxiety. There are already buses using induction charging at their stops in South Korea.

gzoom

AdrianC wrote: »

The maths quite simply does not stack up for them, and they WILL come falling down in an unholy expensive collapse sooner or later.

Just who is going to come falling down, Tesla, Nissan, or EVs in general??


For what ever reason a lot of people seem to not like Tesla, I can understand that, its the same with any brand, Apple, Google, Porsche etc.


But what ever you think of Tesla, right now, if you wanted to buy an EV (rather than just rant), your choices here in the UK are limited to essentially a Tesla which you can virtually use a combustion car replacement due to it's long range and supercharger access, or Nissan/BMW/Renault with their 100 miles range offerings and very limited rapid charging.


Having tried the Nissan option and decided EVs are for us, we have no real choice expect to go with Tesla for now....If you have any other suggesting for a long range EV am all ears.


I'm really looking forwards to the iPace it's one of the reasons why we haven't put a deposit down on the Model 3 but that's still a good 12-18 months away from delivery and we need a car now. The eTron-Quattro interests me less so despite been due for production at a similar time - but that's only because I'm as big fan of VAG as your are of Tesla .


But which ever way you look at it, I'm 100% sure the future is EVs, virtually everyone who switches to an EV don't want to go back to a combustion car. The evidence is there in the sales, Tesla shifted 80K cars last year, at a minimal cost of $75K each with no dealer discounts to drive sales. Despite the high cost demand is such I'm still waiting for ours to arrive despite ordering in August 2016 and there is waiting list of 300K of people ready to jump on board once the price of entry falls to $35Kish. Ever other car manufacture would dream to have that kind of demand, and now scrambling to catch up. Catch up I hope they do, because the more choices there are, the more people will switch to EVs.


People can rant as much they like about why they hate EVs or how EVs are waste time etc, but the combustion engine is already dead, it's simply a matter of how long it take for the corpse to decompose .

EdGasket

gzoom wrote: »

- but that's only because I'm as big fan of VAG as your are of Tesla .

I thought VAG electric cars only use the battery when the bonnet is open and undergoing emission tests; the rest of the time they use a hidden diesel engine in the boot!

AdrianC

gzoom wrote: »

Just who is going to come falling down, Tesla, Nissan, or EVs in general??

Tesla.

But what ever you think of Tesla, right now, if you wanted to buy an EV (rather than just rant), your choices here in the UK are limited to essentially a Tesla which you can virtually use a combustion car replacement due to it's long range and supercharger access, or Nissan/BMW/Renault with their 100 miles range offerings and very limited rapid charging.

They're not exactly in the same market, are they? Not until the Model 3 gets here - with a 200 mile official range, same as the new Leaf - which is entirely likely to be 2/3 the price of the 3.

gzoom

AdrianC wrote: »

They're not exactly in the same market, are they? Not until the Model 3 gets here - with a 200 mile official range, same as the new Leaf - which is entirely likely to be 2/3 the price of the 3.

But they are in the same market for us. Our Leaf PCP contract ends in March, there are zero signs the new Leaf is coming out soon, I've owned 7 Nissans i. the last 15years so I love the brand but by dragging their feet with the next gen Leaf Nissan havr lost my business (for now). Apart from Tesla we have zero other options for a long range EV, and that is the bottom line.

Trust me I rather not spend ££££ on a Tesla, its likely to breakdown alot, the extended warranty will require servicing which is another load of £££, but right now they have the market to themselves, hence the sales they are achieving despite the high price of entry.

I cannot wait to see what the Jag iPace looks like, if it really us going to have a LG 90kWh battery for under £60k than it'll sell like hot cakes.

Exciting times ahead .

Martyn1981

NigeWick wrote: »

Solar road going towards induction charging on motorways and A roads? That would mean smaller batteries and no range anxiety. There are already buses using induction charging at their stops in South Korea.

Hiya Nigel. Lots of interesting ideas regarding electrifying transport, such as the Swedish (I think?) testing overhead supply for some lorries on certain highways.

However, I think Strider590 was referring to "solar freaking roadways" where the road is PV. The French have built a stretch, but the cost is insane compared to just putting PV on rooves, carparks, even artificial road tunnels/canopies.

Maybe it'll work, but I really can't see it, the cost is so high, so until we have a shortage of space for the utterly cheap PV installs, I'm not sure why we would bother - and that's from someone who usually supports all ideas, just in case.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Yes, absolutely I believe it - and I don't think it's that extreme.

Wow, that's a lot of negativity.

So they haven't made a profit (excluding their small recent profit), but that's because they've been reinvesting from the start and expanding the range, with cheaper, higher production numbers each time.

You criticise them for subsidies, come on, be fair. EV's need to be promoted, we don't have time for them (or RE) to grow naturally. Plus we should place subsidies and grants in context.

Tesla received only a fraction of the subsidies the Big Three and oil industry have received

You suggest the withdrawal of free recharging on the base model 3 is a sign of business weakness. Seriously? Isn't that a natural progression, offering a free service to the top models. Also can't the model 3 drivers get free charging if they opt for the higher spec (both driven axles and larger battery pack)?

You say solar tiles are nothing new. Yep(ish) but they've marketed a product at possibly lower cost than a basic roof, and have the solar company behind them to bring it to market fruition.

You question their storage, but they are starting to lead the way with domestic storage. After only 1 yr they upgraded their 7kWh model to 13.5kWh, and included the inverter, and the price went from $3.5k to $5.5k, that's about a 25% price drop in just one year.

Their commercial storage has been deployed in Hawaii, and just recently commissioned in California.

So you seem to be desperately looking for negatives, when the company is doing well. You even sum up with the claim that Elon is 'playing with spaceships' ..... seriously ..... they are supplying the ISS, and you call that 'playing'.

The Gigafactory has 2 approved expansions, whilst it's stll being built, just to try to meet demand and pre-orders. so why don't we just see how it goes rather than throw mud about.

BTW, whilst I'm extremely impressed with Elon, and the approach that Tesla has taken to the EV market, that doesn't mean I place them above the others, I just don't see why anyone would try to place them below.