Electric cars

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Let's look at that headline in more depth, shall we?

TBH, I'm still more interested in knowing why an EV used to support the grid for say 4kWh in the evening, and then charging all night will be 'flat' in the morning?

Edit:

AdrianC wrote: »

Two of the three best-selling cars are from a manufacturer lambasted in this thread today as not taking electric cars seriously.

Do you have a different definition of "today" too?

gzoom

AdrianC wrote: »

Two of the three best-selling cars are from a manufacturer lambasted in this thread today as not taking electric cars seriously. The third is from the manufacturer at the centre of the recent diesel emissions testing issues.

Didn't Nokia use to be a big player in the phone market? What about Kodak in photography? Wang Computers, am sure they use to employ quite a few people;)

Don't confuse the status quo for the future, companies that don't evolve die.

There will always be a role for combustion engines, just like how steam engines still exist.

Believe it or not I still intend to buy another Honda Integra Type R to restore as weekend car at some point. Whos knows we might even meet at 2027 equivalent to this in the future...... But for actual personal transport, its EVs or nothing for us.

Martyn1981

News item today packed with EV news from Europe to the States, and figures on battery cost and development too.

Power to the EV: Norway spearheads Europe's electric vehicle surge

Oslo, Norway’s capital, like most of the Scandinavian country’s cities and towns, boasts bus-lane access for electric vehicles (EVs), recharging stations aplenty, privileged parking, and toll-free travel for electric cars. The initiative began in the 1990s as an effort to cut pollution, congestion, and noise in urban centres; now its primary rationale is combating climate change. Today, Norway has the highest per capita number of all-electric [battery only] cars in the world: more than 100,000 in a country of 5.2 million people. Last year, EVs constituted nearly 40% of the nation’s newly registered passenger cars.

Falling prices for EVs and recent technological developments— several of them led by Tesla — have changed the game. For one, the cost of lithium-ion batteries, which account for about 40% of an EV or hybrid vehicle’s cost, has fallen by two-thirds since 2010 — much faster than experts had anticipated and with further steep reductions expected in the near future. Six years ago, the average EV battery sold for more than $1,000 per kilowatt-hour; now it goes for less than $350. It could drop to as low as $125 in the near future, industry experts say.

Martyn1981

Another boost for EV's perhaps.

London to introduce £10 vehicle pollution charge in October, says Sadiq Khan

gilbert_and_sullivan

Boost for EV's?
Another bonus for those of us who can't stand the hell hole and grateful for any excuse to avoid going near the place.
Go on make it £100, £1000.

When only the elite can live there and the serfs who wait on their every whim vanish elsewhere, they'll have another think soon enough.

Going to be an interesting time at some motorway service areas on a friday afternoon in the summer, when thousands of EV's descend on Leigh Delamere Leicester Forest or Corley wanting to recharge at the same time.

Martyn1981

gilbert_and_sullivan wrote: »

Going to be an interesting time at some motorway service areas on a friday afternoon in the summer, when thousands of EV's descend on Leigh Delamere Leicester Forest or Corley wanting to recharge at the same time.

It's a free world. Whatever you like to get up to at the services on a Friday afternoon is your business. Who am I to judge!

vman

Yeah, of the 11 pages, not many posts address the original question!

Well, the question as posed is “is it worth buying a petrol car on a 4 year finance deal? ... in context of emerging electric car technology”. Well, in that context electric cars are irrelevant, your car will be worth a fraction of what you paid for it after 4 years regardless of what the market is doing (dependant on mileage, etc but a guess off about a 1/3 of the original purchase price wouldn’t be far off)

Personally I don’t think Hybrids make any sense. In electric mode they are lugging around a combustion engine, fuel tank etc, in combustion mode they are lugging around an electric motor, battery etc. You are basically paying to double up on engines/power and in a not particularly efficient manner. They are just a stop gap technology, but IMO not a very good one – if electric doesn’t suit your needs right now you may as buy a decent petrol car.

Re electric. It’s going to depreciate (but who cares?) The problem with electric is next year’s tech is always a marked improvement on the current model (ie about 50% range improvement every two years) so the current model will deprecate. The current 30Kw leaf has a range of about 150 miles between charges (realistically about 120 M), the 2018 model 200 miles, so as soon as that comes out the 150 mile model depreciates (as did the 100 mile model when the 150 mile model came out). As the range increases, the deprivation is less. The closer we get to 250/300 mile range the less significant range increases become. Does deprecation matter? Not really, nobody buys electric cars new to own right now - you would only buy one on pcp with guaranteed minimum future value.
We are still a 18 months away for most drivers to be happy with the electric car capabilities but people saying its decades away are a long way off the mark IMO. The switch to electric will happen relatively quickly. The average age of a UK car is about 7 years old, at that rate of renewal it won’t take long for EV to grab a sizable proportion of the market. Combustion engines will be around and on the road for a little while yet but in about 5 years time most people will view them as clapped out bangers. Another consideration is the rate at which petrol stations are disappearing. Linear projections estimate that there will be more electric charge points than petrol stations within 3 years. Owning a petrol station is already a tough market, just loosing 10% of that trade could well turn the tide. It’s possible the range anxiety boot will be on the other foot.

Final thought, consider this: driving instructors only buy small, new cars. In about three years time a large part (most?) of the new small car market will be electric so it’s not a huge leap to see most new drivers learning in three years time learning to drive in electric cars. Young drivers coming through in the near future won’t know anything other than electric.

scaredofdebt

To answer the OP it's fine, don't worry about it over the next 5 years or so, EVs won't impact residuals for ICE at the moment.

But they will start to in the not-to-distant future.

If you extrapolate sales then EVs will see similar sales figures compared to ICE vehicles by around 2022/3.

Obviously exact figures will depend on technology, costs and politics!

NineDeuce

Petrol-fuelled cars will exist as long as there is a petrol supply i.e. decades

Martyn1981

vman wrote: »

Final thought, consider this: driving instructors only buy small, new cars. In about three years time a large part (most?) of the new small car market will be electric so it’s not a huge leap to see most new drivers learning in three years time learning to drive in electric cars. Young drivers coming through in the near future won’t know anything other than electric.

Here's a fun thought. Maybe nobody will learn to drive or buy a new car after 2022!

Well worth watching a presentation by Tony Seba, an expert of disruptive technologies. There are several on Youtube where he runs through what will be necessary for autonomous car-on-demand services, and all of the factors come together around 2021/22.

1. Cars that last longer, allowing for higher mileage per year, and a lower capital cost per mile. ICE cars are good for about 140,000 miles, whilst the latest EV's should be good for 500,000 soon.

2. LIDAR technology. Costs have tumbled from $100,000 per car to about $1,000 per car now, and still falling.

3. Computing ability, several terraflops will be needed. The first 1 terraflop computer cost about $40m, now there are 2.3 terraflop boards for $60.

4. Running costs need to fall about 90%. Well EV's with cheaper leccy and few moving parts, and low wear and tear are already about 10% of the cost per mile of an ICE.

5. Legislation to allow autonomous vehicles. The first country or US state to allow it will see a large increase in disposable income (not spent on car ownership), and all other states/countries will have to follow suit quickly.

The situation he lays out sounds crazy (crazy fast) but all of the jigsaw pieces make sense. A taxi firm with autonomous CoD's will have 3x the service to car cost, 1/10th the mileage cost, and no driver cost, so a taxi fare today, say to the shops 2 miles away of £5-£10 each way, would be 1/10th or 1/20th the cost.

Would you drive a car, spend time parking, and pay for parking, if the cost was £1?

Back to your point (sorry for digresing). For a new driver to get on the road they will probably spend £1k on learning, £2k on a second hand car, and £2k on insurance. So they are £5k in the hole, and that would buy a lot of CoD mileage.

Tony Seba estimates that buying a new car will cost 10x* more than using CoD, and even keeping your old car will cost 4x more.

As soon as it starts to happen, the second hand market will collapse, and more people will rush to sell their cars.

Cars currently are used for 4% of the time, whereas CoD could push this up to 40%, meaning 1/10th of the cars needed, though morning peak demand may be an issue, when around 30% of cars are in use at the same time.

*BTW, this cost includes the car, fuel, insurance, MOT, RFL, maintenance ...... and the land value of say driveways, which is an interesting point.