Electric cars

Jackmydad

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Here's a fun thought. Maybe nobody will learn to drive or buy a new car after 2022! - - -

Very good write up that! It did just occur to me though that having all the vehicles out of private ownership would give a government of the time greater control (if it wanted it) over where and when it's citizens travelled.
Just a thought really.

Strider590

Jackmydad wrote: »

Very good write up that! It did just occur to me though that having all the vehicles out of private ownership would give a government of the time greater control (if it wanted it) over where and when it's citizens travelled.
Just a thought really.

In a real emergency I guess it's possible, but I think they'd be more interested in keeping tabs on peoples movements.

The authorities have control, it's called debt, the more you owe, the more control you hand to them and the corporate sponsors. It used to be religion, but science and the internet freedom of information put pay to that, although they're trying desperately to curb that too.

As for EVs (on topic) i'm convinced they're just this decades diesels, give it 10 years and they'll be demonised in favour of something else.

Ectophile

NineDeuce wrote: »

Petrol-fuelled cars will exist as long as there is a petrol supply i.e. decades

You can still buy coal, and there are still a few steam-powered cars registered for use on the road.

But that doesn't mean that anyone would want to buy a new steam car any more.

newtonflotman

So if we all go to electric cars where are we all going to charge them?
Anyone living in a flat/high-rise is going to have problems. Most new builds often have just a parking space which is often not next to house. How many people park at least one car on the road. You can't have cables from your property across pavement to charge your car. Then most cities have lots of terraced streets where people struggle to park as it is. Think it will be more like 30-40 years before we go predominantly electric.

vman

People in flats don’t have petrol pumps in their car parks and yet they still buy cars. Charging at home is practical now while the entry level models have a range of 100-ish miles, but it’s less important when the range is 300+ miles like petrol cars.

Also, compared to opening a petrol station, the entry to market on EV charge points is negligible – you just need 3-phase. That’s why they are popping up everywhere like shopping centres, libraries, parks, etc. Milton Keynes council have installed over 230 charge points alone, plus there are all the ecotricity, etc ones around town. Petrol car drivers fill up after they finish shopping, EV car drivers just plug whilst they are shopping.

vman

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Here's a fun thought. Maybe nobody will learn to drive or buy a new car after 2022!

Yeah, driverless cars can’t be far off, we easily have the tech now and have done for a while (it’s not hard) – it’s rolling it out in a mixed driver/driverless environment which is hard.

BeenThroughItAll

vman wrote: »

People in flats don’t have petrol pumps in their car parks and yet they still buy cars. Charging at home is practical now while the entry level models have a range of 100-ish miles, but it’s less important when the range is 300+ miles like petrol cars.

Also, compared to opening a petrol station, the entry to market on EV charge points is negligible – you just need 3-phase. That’s why they are popping up everywhere like shopping centres, libraries, parks, etc. Milton Keynes council have installed over 230 charge points alone, plus there are all the ecotricity, etc ones around town. Petrol car drivers fill up after they finish shopping, EV car drivers just plug whilst they are shopping.

The problem is still charge rate though. People in flats can own petrol cars because it takes less than five minutes to fill them up, making it a convenience that they can afford to undertake miles from home. A 300mi range EV needs much more planning.

Martyn1981

newtonflotman wrote: »

So if we all go to electric cars where are we all going to charge them?

vman has answered most of the is. The point is, that if you have a car, then it has to be parked somewhere, and there's a good chance that in an EV dominate future that parking location will have a charger.

Ubitricity offer a service where they install charge points into lamposts as a retro-fit.

And vman's point about charging at the supermarket is interesting. The big chains use/used petrol pricing to attract shoppers to their stores, so EV charging would be a logical evolution from there.

As a side issue, UK carparks cover a huge amount of area, and PV carpark canopies are a great way to dual use this land for stores. So they have a car park, they also get to generate leccy for their business, plus they can promote 'solar car charging' for green points, and offer shaded spaces for cars, or more likely in the UK, keep shoppers dry whilst loading up.

Stageshoot

Once the cost of second hand 1st Gen EVs start to fall people will pick them up as second cars and once they do and see the cost benefits they will move to first car EV ownership..

Need to get rid of the stupid battery leases that are muddying the waters with cars like the Zoe, look so cheap second hand then you get the battery lease on top and it all seems like salesman snake oil. The batteries are reliable and the lease is just another way for a finance company to get its hands in your pocket long terms.

Already starting to see the 1st Gen Leafs in prominent positions on the back lot dealershipsl

We (Self and OH) moved to EVs just to cut down on work fuel costs. (We get the same mileage allowance no matter what we drive)

Being a spreadsheet geek I keep very detailed costings of home and public charging, and can compare it very easily to my old car (Volvo V40 Diesel)

Since I bought my EV (BMW i3 ExDemo in October 2016) I have covered 31000 miles.

A Fuel Saving alone of £3329 over the Volvo (After Electric Costs Taken into account), That excludes the servicing costs savings with nothing to service compared to the same in a Diesel

Its working out at 1.91p a mile overall.

Plus free parking in Central London saving over £30 a day 3 days a week for me and No £11.50 Congestion Charge.

Apodemus

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Here's a fun thought...

Well argued, and I agree that change will come, be more rapid than we can now imagine and run in ways that we are probably still not thinking about.

But, I'm afraid that I am a bit more cynical about the costs and the business model that will deliver all this. A number of your points could have applied to current technology were it not for commercial considerations. Cars could be cheaper, have longer lives and work with simplified servicing procedures, but commercial considerations (and consumer considerations) mean that no manufacturer is going to kill off the cash cow.

I would predict that these same considerations will transfer across to newer generation technology and current servicing costs will be replaced by necessary software licensing costs and essential upgrades. Vehicle life-cycle may even be shorter than at present (admittedly with a greater recycling of components) - as seems to be the case with all current electrical goods. As self-driving cars gain the upper hand, industry will be able to aggressively drive out the remaining old technology and have a bigger captive market. Bangernomics will no longer be an option and everyone will be brought into a newer higher cost structure.

Sadly, I think that the scenario where costs fall sharply is as realistic as earlier optimism that "electricity will be too cheap to meter" and "the NHS will ensure that people are so healthy that after a few years we won't need so many doctors and nurses".