Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

It would appear that British business is regaining confidence post-referendum:

Morale in large British companies hit an 18-month high in the fourth quarter, bolstered by robust economic growth and recovering fully from a slump that followed the Brexit vote, a survey showed on Thursday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-deloitte-idUKKBN14I005?il=0

CKhalvashi

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The fact is less than 5% of UK companies export. Strip out the large corporations and multi-nationals that already do, and there's not a huge amount left in value terms. For the remainder of companies takes time to establish export markets. Isn't just a question of selling goods either. It's finding quality customers. After all a sale is no use if you don't get paid. Nor is anyone going to invest and tool up with new machinery etc unless there's certainty. The UK is around 70% service based industry which constrains the ability to grow exports faster as well.

Actually, it's probably easier with services than with goods.

I'm in a position where something can be set up in 2 months start to finish, with completion around 2-3 months after that. That would take us to about now.

There is possibly not that much in the pipeline, there possibly is. We will see when the next quarterly stats come out.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

It would appear that British business is regaining confidence post-referendum:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-deloitte-idUKKBN14I005?il=0

Note the word 'large'.

BobQ

http://www.ippr.org/publications/future-proof-britain-in-the-2020s

Latest think tank observations of life after Brexit, mostly stating the obvious. Seems to suggest Brexit may be good for Britain but not so good for Britons.

The economic implications of Brexit are likely to put the country on a lower growth, lower investment trajectory, worsening the public finances, with important consequences for the UK’s economy and living standards. Migration is likely to become more controlled. At the same time, politics – long subservient to a liberalising economic consensus – is likely to become increasingly assertive in seeking to reshape Brexit Britain.

The main report predicts an increasingly large and diverse UK population while France, Italy and Germany see falling populations. Sounds like a UKIP nightmare!

The UK will be the fastest growing major country in Europe, with its population overtaking France by 2030.
• Population growth will be centred in the cities – London is projected to grow to 10m people by 2030, up!from 8.5m.
The UK’s population will grow rapidly in the 2020s, relative to other European countries.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

Latest think tank observations of life after Brexit, mostly stating the obvious. Seems to suggest Brexit may be good for Britain but not so good for Britons.

The main report predicts an increasingly large and diverse UK population while France, Italy and Germany see falling populations. Sounds like a UKIP nightmare!

Western Europe as a whole faces the same challenges. Not specifically Brexit related. Germany's population is on average 4 years older than the UK's. Hence Merkels open door policy. Asia faces many challenges itself. Certainly not as clear cut as it seemed some years ago.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Latest think tank observations of life after Brexit, mostly stating the obvious. Seems to suggest Brexit may be good for Britain but not so good for Britons.



The main report predicts an increasingly large and diverse UK population while France, Italy and Germany see falling populations. Sounds like a UKIP nightmare!

always interesting to read a report about how we will have a massive 'burden ' caused by lack of workers relative to pensioners and at the same time have massive unemployment due to automation.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

always interesting to read a report about how we will have a massive 'burden ' caused by lack of workers relative to pensioners and at the same time have massive unemployment due to automation.

I did think you would probably appreciate that!

I am a little surprised to see its expectations for the relative size of the UK relative to our EU friends. Even with an averagely older population Germany seems to have a declining population where as we have an increasing one.

In fact Germany seems to be less attractive to migrants



Maybe helped by the cash incentives to leave!

fatbeetle

The IPPR was formerly run by the head of the Remain campaign Will Straw. It is funded by the EU. Probably worth mentioning…

BobQ

fatbeetle wrote: »

The IPPR was formerly run by the head of the Remain campaign Will Straw. It is funded by the EU. Probably worth mentioning…

Its very difficult to find totally independent organisations to conduct research, you always have to rely on the fact that they have a reputation to uphold as otherwise they would get no funding, so have a governance process.Of course the safest thing is to ignore all studies or only read the ones that are clearly biased.

EU funding of IPPR is about 5%, most of the funding comes from diverse range of bodies including UK Government Grants, banks, industry, unions, finacial institutions etc. But I agree its approach is left of centre.

CKhalvashi

BobQ wrote: »

Maybe helped by the cash incentives to leave!

What cash incentive? The only one I can see is foreign companies buying British ones with the occasional export, on the back of a worthless pound. That is no incentive in the long run.

BobQ wrote: »

Its very difficult to find totally independent organisations to conduct research, you always have to rely on the fact that they have a reputation to uphold as otherwise they would get no funding, so have a governance process.Of course the safest thing is to ignore all studies or only read the ones that are clearly biased.

EU funding of IPPR is about 5%, most of the funding comes from diverse range of bodies including UK Government Grants, banks, industry, unions, finacial institutions etc. But I agree its approach is left of centre.

Completely agree with this.

(The following isn't aimed at you personally) My approach is probably more left of centre than it was in 2010, too. Doesn't make me any less entitled to a valid opinion on what I think, however.

It's fine for anyone to slam predictions, however the best approach is to look at a range of info and pick what you think is most realistic. IMO it's that the UK will end up in recession and (mainly) Germany will move in to sweet the demand by improving efficiency in its own market, your opinion may differ.

I don't believe the UK will die completely, but I don't believe it will be plain sailing, and I think that it will cause the country to be poorer in the long run, largely to a few years with close to 0 net investment, but that's the nature of the gamble being taken.

If I was an MP (and I have to declare that I haven't stood in a Parliamentary election....yet) then I would be promoting a completely different way of doing things, which I believe would make the UK stronger in the long run, however I think most on this topic already know that.

BobQ

CKhalvashi wrote: »

What cash incentive? The only one I can see is foreign companies buying British ones with the occasional export, on the back of a worthless pound. That is no incentive in the long run.
.

Sory I did not post the link

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38449841

See under Cash Support