An Evening With... Jeremy Corbyn

westernpromise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'm a life long Conservative voter - but Labour's current dire situation gives me no pleasure.

I fully understand that our political system needs credible parties of opposition to keep the government with a healthy fear of losing the next election if they veer too far from the majority of voters.

Because in politics that's the only thing that prevents absolute power from corrupting absolutely...

I'm pretty sure there are a whole host of fringe parties with no real chance of electoral success that (quite rightly) act as a loud noise bringing attention to issues that may then go on to be adopted by the major parties of government.

But Labour shouldn't be one of them.

This country needs an effective, credible, and most importantly electable opposition to hold the the party of government to account.

An opposition that is capable of representing the views of the majority and winning elections should the party of government fail to deliver on it's promises or mess up on big issues like the economy.

Without that - our democracy, and our society, is in real trouble.

We have fringe parties aplenty to perform the role of loud but unelectable entities which draw attention to issues.

We need an effective and electable opposition.... And we don't have it with Corbyn in charge of Labour.

I get tired of hearing this.

If it were true that governments need an effective opposition then the most competent governments we'd have had would have been John Major's and James Callaghan 's, and the least effective would have been Thatcher and the Coalition. The opposite is the case.

An effective opposition makes for possibly years of inept poll-watching headline-chasing government.

The ineffectiveness of Labour will make the government better, not worse.

westernpromise

Moby wrote: »

Of course no two situations are the same but Theresa May called you the nasty party for a reason. Im saying the emergence of UKIP helped the Tories shed that image.

More precisely, Cameron detoxified hid party via "exitism". By insulting the right as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists he ensured that Ukip vocally loathed him. This sent a very clear message to the voters that Ukip were wholly unconnected and at odds with the Tories. Ukippers are so dumb they quit a party that wins elections in favour of one that has only ever won one Westminster seat.

Thrugelmir

westernpromise wrote: »

Ukippers are so dumb they quit a party that wins elections in favour of one that has only ever won one Westminster seat.

I knew UK politics was degenerating to new lows. Resorting to personal insults simply takes it a step lower.

BobQ

Moby wrote: »

Agree to some extent but two things to give you cause for optimism. The first past the post system makes it very difficult for a third party to break through and replace Labour. If the tories therefore run out of steam simply because of the electoral system we have Labour will be the alternative. Also remember Corbyn is 67 and there is no-one credible to pick up his legacy and run with it when he goes. I think we can wear him down, stay in the party and fight. 172 deselections are never going to happen!

Moby I hope you are right but fear that hoping for the Tories to fail and relying on Corbyn becoming too old are rather negative approaches.

Provided Labour stay above about 28% nationally you are right that the system works in their favour against third parties, but there is a tipping point where a credible third party will break through. At present there is not one but even 50 de-selections might be enough to create one.

Remember that in 1983 the SDP and Liberals took 25% of the vote only 3% less than Labour. Suppose a similar Alliance reached 30% with Labour on 20%. who knows what will happen? I accept that de-selections might be limited but only to avoid triggering the formation of a centre left party.

westernpromise

there is a tipping point where a credible third party will break through.

That hasn't happened in 100 years and even then Labour was able to gain ground chiefly because millions of new voters were enfranchised and joined the electoral roll with no previous allegiance from which they had to be persuaded.

The only exception is the SNP but that's a very doubtful precedent because 1/ they've been around for 70 years so they are not new, and 2/ they are regional not national.

BobQ

westernpromise wrote: »

there is a tipping point where a credible third party will break through.

That hasn't happened in 100 years and even then Labour was able to gain ground chiefly because millions of new voters were enfranchised and joined the electoral roll with no previous allegiance from which they had to be persuaded.

The only exception is the SNP but that's a very doubtful precedent because 1/ they've been around for 70 years so they are not new, and 2/ they are regional not national.

How low do you think Labour's share of the national vote would need to fall before a third party could break through? Suppose Labour's vote fell to 15% or 10%? You are not seriously suggesting they would still be the second largest party are you?

As I noted in 1983 the Alliance came close to overtaking Labour's popular vote. That was not enough, but there is a tipping point.

As to new voters, there are many disillusioned Labour supporters who have voted Tory, UKIP, Green or abstained. I accept they will not come back just because someone created a third party, but with the right leadership we did see what Blair achieved, and a new party would certainly take votes from Labour itself.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

How low do you think Labour's share of the national vote would need to fall before a third party could break through?

What if the deselected MP's formed an independent Labour party?

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What if the deselected MP's formed an independent Labour party?

I think I suggested this above, but I agree that if a significant number of MPs are deselected they have nothing to lose (but will gain allowances if defeated at the next election). Forming a new party (Independent LP, Real LP whatever) or even a parliamentary party is an option as is cooperating with the Lib Dems as the SDP did.

Interesting times. Can Corbyn stop deselections? They will just force the issue.

westernpromise

They would not last 10 minutes if they formed an independent party because they would be doing so in instances where the local constituency party has or will deselect them. Basically, any Labour MP who decides to become an independent or to form a new party of others like himself will be someone with no local established organization. This means that their career as an MP is likely to end next election. The odd one is likely to be able to hang on but most won't, and in many cases will achieve no more than to split the vote and let a Tory through the middle.

Labour 's vote share could fall to 22% or so without their seat tally going much below 150-odd. We've seen in Scotland though that the locals eventually work out that Labour 's done nothing for them in 70-odd years and they choose something else, but that something else had itself been around for 70 years - it hasn't flowered overnight.

I can see the left dissolving into a People's Front of Judaea shambles for the next 20 years.

seven-day-weekend

westernpromise wrote: »

They would not last 10 minutes if they formed an independent party because they would be doing so in instances where the local constituency party has or will deselect them. Basically, any Labour MP who decides to become an independent or to form a new party of others like himself will be someone with no local established organization. This means that their career as an MP is likely to end next election. The odd one is likely to be able to hang on but most won't, and in many cases will achieve no more than to split the vote and let a Tory through the middle.

Labour 's vote share could fall to 22% or so without their seat tally going much below 150-odd. We've seen in Scotland though that the locals eventually work out that Labour 's done nothing for them in 70-odd years and they choose something else, but that something else had itself been around for 70 years - it hasn't flowered overnight.

I can see the left dissolving into a People's Front of Judaea shambles for the next 20 years.

Good post .I too see the scenario I have underlined.

But who will form the official Opposition? One of the criterion for this is that they should be able to form a Government in the case of the official Government going base over apex.
Do you think theat either Corbyn's Labour or Refreshed Labour will be able to do that?