BREXIT price rises

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh dear.... You're wrong again.

Eurozone July Composite PMI at 52.9 - they actually beat the forecast - while UK PMI plummeted to the worst levels since the 2008/9 crash.


http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-aftermath-european-flash-pmi-july-2016-7

It is becoming increasingly clear that it's the UK who is going to be stuffed by leaving the EU - and that the EU is far less affected.

Which is exactly what you'd expect given 45% of our trade is with the EU, but just 7% of their trade is with us.

Easy now. If you believe this how can you not also believe what I've said on the 'debate Scotland' thread?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Easy now. If you believe this how can you not also believe what I've said on the 'debate Scotland' thread?

Oh you might well be right re a short term trade impact - breaking up Union's of countries is always inadvisable and painful - but I just don't care.

Scotland's long term prospects are better in the EU than in a diminished UK that is outside of the EU.

The fact that the UK is already crashing into recession while the Eurozone economy has shrugged off the impact of Brexit simply re-enforces that perspective.

Generali

To be completely clear, the UK's economy was doing pretty well before the Brexit vote and was really mirroring the US economy on about a 6 month lag.

Any divergence between the UK and the US economy from now on is highly likely to be as a result of the Brexit vote.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh you might well be right re a short term trade impact - breaking up Union's of countries is always inadvisable and painful - but I just don't care.

Scotland's long term prospects are better in the EU than in a diminished UK that is outside of the EU.

The fact that the UK is already crashing into recession while the Eurozone economy has shrugged off the impact of Brexit simply re-enforces that perspective.

This news needs to be tempered.

Brexit hasn't happened yet. Deals are unknown and nothing has actually changed yet. It is purely uncertainty that is driving this.

I for one would like to retain single market membership, freedom of movement is not an issue for me. If that doesn't happen then we (the UK) will need to re-orient ~44% (or at least some) of our trade which will be painful.

So for Scotland breaking away from the UK in a situation where the UK gets a bad deal it is also true that Scotland will need to re-orient ~64% (or some) of its trade, and in fact as Scotland only has 15% of its trade with the EU, they'll do better out of an eventual Brexit than other areas of the UK than they would by breaking away and joining the EU.

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The fact that the UK is already crashing into recession while the Eurozone economy has shrugged off the impact of Brexit simply re-enforces that perspective.

Calm down dear. FTSE's up

Investors shrug off 'Brexit' economic warnings

http://citywire.co.uk/money/investors-shrug-off-brexit-economic-warnings/a935289

AnotherJoe

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

This news needs to be tempered.

Brexit hasn't happened yet. Deals are unknown and nothing has actually changed yet. It is purely uncertainty that is driving this.

Spot on. A lot of FUD about immediately after Brexit with many people putting plans on hold in the week or two after.

As it dawns on folk this is a multi-year journey (article 50 not even triggered in this year) then calmer heads may prevail and given our exporters are now selling at 10% cheaper, things may pick up and there may well be some economic stimuli coming to help.

Or it may go to hell in a hand basket, each is possible, but one data point is not a trend.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

setmefree2 wrote: »

Calm down dear. FTSE's up

FTSE is up because....

1) The GBP crashed again today - it now takes more pounds to buy 'stuff' - like shares...

2) Investors are counting on massive emergency state aid - another sugar rush for the stock market - with odds now on the BOE having to deploy extensive additional QE (money printing), lower rates, and extension of FLS...

Neither of those things are positive news.

Generali

setmefree2 wrote: »

Calm down dear. FTSE's up



http://citywire.co.uk/money/investors-shrug-off-brexit-economic-warnings/a935289

This is the FTSE100 by market cap:

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

market cap will be a pretty reasonable approximation for weight in the index apart from to say that the banks are likely to be overweighted by until the next reweighting.

The top 13 stocks are about 51% of the weight of the index. Of those only HSBC and National Grid make a substantial proportion of their profits in the UK. Of those, National Grid is a defensive stock whose value is unlikely to be changed up or down by Brexit.

The FTSE100 is a weighted average of the prices of the shares of the biggest 100 shares trade on the LSE. It isn't a vote on the future performance of the British economy.

The PMI is a vote on the future performance of the British economy and it just crapped its pants per HAMISH's post.

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

Calm down dear. FTSE's up



http://citywire.co.uk/money/investors-shrug-off-brexit-economic-warnings/a935289

FTSE was riding high just before the 2008 recession also.

chaostheory

mayonnaise wrote: »

FTSE was riding high just before the 2008 recession also.

That was because of oil and commodity prices. The 2008 recession was a double whammy of a serious oil price shock and a financial crisis.

Everybody needs to calm down tbh.