A Brexiters view

CLAPTON

mrginge wrote: »

Senior politicians from both major parties have already stated that the free movement rules need to be addressed, plus of course we have DC's renegotiation victory as well so you can be confident that post-remain the high levels of immigration will be getting reduced.

Only the greens and few remaining lib dems are now committed to free movement of labour.

total fantasy
every significant EU politician has said the free movement is absolutely fundamental to being a member of the EU

NO UK politicians that have said they could restrict EU free movement although a very small number have said they would like to ( and they are only the racist extremists).

Kohoutek

wymondham wrote: »

Thanks for detailed reply. So if we look at point 1, leaving the EU would permit the UK to decide on numbers and thus control as necessary. As the EU grows so does our automatic acceptance of greater numbers and that is the issue..

I don't think the EU is going to grow much or at all in the next 10 years.

The only realistic candidates are some of the Balkan countries: Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia etc (Turkey will not happen for reasons people have already discussed). These countries do not have very large populations at all, much smaller than Poland or Romania for example.

According to an article this week's Economist, their applications are not moving along either.

There would obviously have to be immigration from / to the EU to the UK even if we left - our economies are too intertwined. The question is how much Brexit would reduce it by - if it's only a few tens of thousands, is it really worth it?

mrginge

CLAPTON wrote: »

total fantasy
every significant EU politician has said the free movement is absolutely fundamental to being a member of the EU

NO UK politicians that have said they could restrict EU free movement although a very small number have said they would like to ( and they are only the racist extremists).

I hope you are not suggesting that these politicians are simply saying things for effect and actually have no intention of following though on.

That would be a terrible indictment and I would hope that the electorate would hold such people to account at the next GE.

Thrugelmir

Kohoutek wrote: »

I don't think the EU is going to grow much or at all in the next 10 years.

Certainly suffering from economic stagnation. Which at the very least is causing an West/East divide in Europe.

Moby

:mad:Gfplux description of free movement was a good summary and a reasonable position for a positively minded outward looking person to take. Perhaps he could have mentioned Cameron's new concessions re. labour, (no entitlement to benefit for 4 years, only allowed to look for work for six months before returning to country of origin). Corbyn today has stated that people doing the same job should be on the same pay and conditions etc. 2 million people from UK live in other countries in the EU.....blah blah. What more could the Brexiteers possibly want!

tripled

wymondham wrote: »

Thanks for detailed reply. So if we look at point 1, leaving the EU would permit the UK to decide on numbers and thus control as necessary. As the EU grows so does our automatic acceptance of greater numbers and that is the issue..

Given that non-EU migration (which we do control) is higher than EU migration, I wouldn't get your hopes up that it'll make much difference.

I went to a vote leave event and asked the question to the panelists "If successive governments have failed to reduce non-EU migration, why should we believe that you will be able to reduce EU migration if we leave"?

The answer (from a senior Tory MP) was to admit that immigration was "getting away from them" - before ducking the issue and regurgitating the standard Vote Leave lines (albeit eloquently). Another responded to a question about the NHS staffing by saying we will still allow in EU migrants where they are needed. So I really don't see it will make a lot of difference.

That's assuming we leave the EEA althogether - if we stay (over 3/4s of MP's support remaining in the EEA) that comes with the same free movement rules as we have now. Although hopefully unlikely, the EU could even demand we join Schengen as part of the negotiations (we can't stay in the EEA "by default"). We would also lose our veto as to which countries join - right now we can veto any new member, we will lose this ability (but would still have to accept their migrants).

As for the new countries in the pipeline? Turkey isn't joining any time soon. Of the remaining four, three are smaller than Wales (one not much bigger than Cardiff) and the last one has a population similar to London's. 12 million in total against an EU population of over 500 million.

So my take is that a Brexit is unlikely to bring any significant change to immigration, however any change could go either way - we could actually end up with less control!

mrginge

Moby wrote: »

Corbyn today has stated that people doing the same job should be on the same pay and conditions etc. 2 million people from UK live in other countries in the EU.....blah blah. What more could the Brexiteers possibly want!

Hi Moby,

I haven't seen this from Corbyn today but it is excellent news and a great step in the right direction.
Have any details been released of how he is planning to achieve this and which other European countries have signed up to his plan?

Finally we have some concrete policies instead of the speculative nonsense thrown around by some!

CLAPTON

mrginge wrote: »

I hope you are not suggesting that these politicians are simply saying things for effect and actually have no intention of following though on.

That would be a terrible indictment and I would hope that the electorate would hold such people to account at the next GE.

which politicians are you accusing of being untruthful?

mrginge

CLAPTON wrote: »

which politicians are you accusing of being untruthful?

None of them. I am simply saying that when politicians such as Theresa May or Tom Watson make comment on future possibilities of restricting free movement of labour, then I would expect them to back those claims up if they achieve their goal of remain.

StevieJ

Kohoutek wrote: »

I don't think the EU is going to grow much or at all in the next 10 years.

The only realistic candidates are some of the Balkan countries: Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia etc (Turkey will not happen for reasons people have already discussed). These countries do not have very large populations at all, much smaller than Poland or Romania for example.

According to an article this week's Economist, their applications are not moving along either.

There would obviously have to be immigration from / to the EU to the UK even if we left - our economies are too intertwined. The question is how much Brexit would reduce it by - if it's only a few tens of thousands, is it really worth it?

It seems to me that most EU immigration has already happened and the out campaigners seem to imply they can stay. Turkey joining the EU :rotfl:No chance, the others new applicants I agree are small beer.