A Brexiters view

dktreesea

It's all well and good the government saying long term migration is "only" 333,000 for the latest year figures are available. But what's to stop the short term migrants (those who come for one to twelve months) - that's 1.2 million of them for the year to June 2014 (latest figures available, according to this article:


http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/26/long-term-migrant-numbers-swell-to-333000/


from deciding the UK will suit them just fine, or going back for a few weeks, realising they were doing a lot better in the UK than they had previously thought, and hightailing it back here, complete with wife and children?

CLAPTON

dktreesea wrote: »

It's all well and good the government saying long term migration is "only" 333,000 for the latest year figures are available. But what's to stop the short term migrants (those who come for one to twelve months) - that's 1.2 million of them for the year to June 2014 (latest figures available, according to this article:


http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/26/long-term-migrant-numbers-swell-to-333000/


from deciding the UK will suit them just fine, or going back for a few weeks, realising they were doing a lot better in the UK than they had previously thought, and hightailing it back here, complete with wife and children?

as I understand it and I'm happy to be corrected,
the number of 'short term' migrant is a 'correction factor'

they add up the number of NI numbers issued and then see in 12 months see how many are still 'active' (presumably paying tax)
the difference they assume have returned home : obviously there are other possible explanations

wymondham

We'll, I'm well chuffed with the results and couldn't have hoped for a better outcome - it would have been awful if we'd won by a small number.

Sure the markets are haywire at the moment, but these will settle, and as people appear giving reassurance things will soon calm - it was a surprise result, which the markets hate, and they got it wrong in their predictions. Already the BoE has made a statement and manufacturers etc are starting to announce business as usual. The headless chickens will eventually quieten.

Cameron is off soon which will bring in a fresh face and new direction. I have real optimism and look forward to seeing how this pans out.

I have no regrets about my vote and am pleased to have contributed to making a change, as more of the same would have been awful... who knows this may be the start of REAL change in the EU, and if not then it really does deserve to fall apart.

To all the brave people out there who ignored the establishment, money markets and 'experts', what a day! I was gripped by this all through the night and now feel numb..

chucknorris

wymondham wrote: »

it would have been awful if we'd won by a small number.

You did win by a small number, the final result was 51.9% to 48.1%.

wymondham

chucknorris wrote: »

You did win by a small number, the final result was 51.9% to 48.1%.

more than a million is a lot of people..... I was think about recount demands etc..

chucknorris

wymondham wrote: »

more than a million is a lot of people.....

On the scale of the total number of voters it is not, the result was 51.9% to 48.1%. It isn't about the nominal numbers, e.g. if you had a voting population of only 10 people, and the result was 8:2, the winning margin of (only) 6 would be a large number.

wymondham

chucknorris wrote: »

On the scale of the total number of voters it is not, the result was 51.9% to 48.1%. It isn't about the nominal numbers, e.g. if you had a voting population of only 10 people, and the result was 8:2, the winning margin of (only) 6 would be a large number.

Granted, but by a million plus it avoids doubt as to count accuracy etc.

chucknorris

wymondham wrote: »

Granted, but by a million plus it avoids doubt as to count accuracy etc.

Yes, but you added references to recounting after I had posted. Your original post implied a significant margin victory, which was not the case.

wymondham

chucknorris wrote: »

Yes, but you added references to recounting after I had posted. Your original post implied a significant margin victory, which was not the case.

I'm a slow thinker and you're too fast for a Friday morning...

wotsthat

I bet anyone that layed off their 1.66 remain bet at 1.19 before they went to bed is glad they did.