A Brexiters view

michaels

StevieJ wrote: »

When our credit rating is reduced we certainly won't be borrowing at cheap rates anymore. So it is emergency budget or increased borrowing at higher rates I should imagine the 66 billion that the finance industry contribute to the exchequer will take a mighty hit as well.

Interesting that as of today govt borrowing is much cheaper than it was yesterday. By why let the facts get in the way of a good scare story....

westernpromise

CLAPTON wrote: »

we will need to wait a little

interesting to see how many supporters the banks/financial industry suddenly have and how few there are in favour of rebalancing the economy towards manufacturing industry etc.
But to be fair, you have always been an advocate in favour of the banks and financial industry.

I certainly don't want to see the economy "rebalanced" towards jobs like digging coal and bashing metal.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

we will need to wait a little

interesting to see how many supporters the banks/financial industry suddenly have and how few there are in favour of rebalancing the economy towards manufacturing industry etc.
But to be fair, you have always been an advocate in favour of the banks and financial industry.

I thought you were a practical person who believed in economics? Why don't we do what we're good at and let other countries do what they're good at? We do services (including finance, media, law, etc) very well and export that. Why would you try to decrease the industry that you're good at and compete against low wage countries for manufacturing industry?

HornetSaver

CLAPTON wrote: »

But maybe WW3 and the emergency budget will be happening later today.

The editorial teams at the Daily Mail, Daily Express and The Sun are perfectly capable of redrafting the tax and spending structure in half an hour.

By contrast, remotely competent organisations, such as Governments, tends not to meet after a Thursday vote until at least the following Monday. Even the least competent of our politicians have the good sense to ride out the first few days of silly season before trying to determine the medium-term lay of the land and what should be done next.

StevieJ

michaels wrote: »

Interesting that as of today govt borrowing is much cheaper than it was yesterday. By why let the facts get in the way of a good scare story....

The credit agencies need to give 24hr notice to a govt before a downgrade, But why let the facts get in the way of a good scare story?

StevieJ

CLAPTON wrote: »

we will need to wait a little

interesting to see how many supporters the banks/financial industry suddenly have and how few there are in favour of rebalancing the economy towards manufacturing industry etc.
But to be fair, you have always been an advocate in favour of the banks and financial industry.

The finance industry paid £66 billion in tax last year of course I am in favour of them

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

When our credit rating is reduced we certainly won't be borrowing at cheap rates anymore. So it is emergency budget or increased borrowing at higher rates I should imagine the 66 billion that the finance industry contribute to the exchequer will take a mighty hit as well.

The difference between borrowing at AAA and AA+ isn't huge. AA+ countries include Finland, the EU (oh the irony) and the USA.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Interesting that as of today govt borrowing is much cheaper than it was yesterday. By why let the facts get in the way of a good scare story....

Gilt 10 year yields were up earlier in the day. When the European markets started to wake up yields came sharply down again along with FX rates rising. I wonder why....

http://uk.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-cenbanks-swiss-idUKL8N19G24X

Switzerland's central bank on Friday gave rare confirmation that it had intervened in the currency market to weaken the Swiss franc in the wake of Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/central-banks-on-alert-as-brexit-vote-hammers-markets/

The Bank of England promised it would “take all necessary steps” to keep financial markets stable as a day of carnage threatened on London’s financial markets in the wake of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/central-banks-pledge-action-to-alleviate-strains-on-brexit-news

After a majority of Britons voted to end their 43-year membership of the EU in a referendum, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan issued statements stressing the availability of liquidity to keep the banking system running. The BOJ led the Swiss National Bank and the Danish central bank in displaying readiness to sell their local currencies to cap gains caused by investors seeking haven from the turmoil.

Out of interest, how long do you think the world's central banks will keep on bailing you out? I give you a week or two before you are required to come up with a Plan B if the volatility I was watching as you slept keeps up.

The polite word is volatility. The reality it was volatile rather like a rock dropped out of a window.

Generali

PS If you watch the very excellent Jane Foley interview at the Bloomie link I gave you can see the full intraday horror. GBPJPY was down 18%, GBPUSD down over 12%, GBPCHF down 10.7%.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

PS If you watch the very excellent Jane Foley interview at the Bloomie link I gave you can see the full intraday horror. GBPJPY was down 18%, GBPUSD down over 12%, GBPCHF down 10.7%.

But half of that was juast reversing the increases of earlier in the week when the markets thought remain would win - the wildness of the fluctuations are not about the fundamentals but about the unexpectedness of the result.