The EU: IN or OUT?

Superscrooge

veryintrigued wrote: »

Slightly off thread but for those of us who are

a) Looking to have a bet on this
b) Have no wish to have further bets on other stuff afterwards

Can anyone recommend any offers as the betting world is a completely alien one to me.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Looking at the odds quoted, Most people are betting on a victory for the 'Remain' campaign.

maxie014

I cant see how anyone is in support of unlimited immigration,how can that be sane?
Obviously most of those in favour it only affects them positively.
I cant see how we needed accordion players,big issue sellers,the same lady has been doing this job for years!
Im a working class fella myself,probably uneducated to a lot on here,but common sense can go a long way but there seems a lack of it sometimes.
I know a firm who have a load of bulgarians working for them for peanuts no wives,families etc over here,they also rent them out their accomodation,70-80 hours a week no problem.Win win for the employer,cheap labour plus they get rent money back,they love them
Compare that to the uk lads working for the same firm,wages kept low by the cheap labour,the bosses want them to work the same crazy hours,but they have wives,families etc,they hate the bulgarians.
Now these working class uk lads born and bred didnt ask to be in competition with these lads,they were forced into it by some utopian dream,they are still hard workers but need a life in this country as well.
Would any of you pro "mass" immigration people like to be told you were going on 70 hour weeks,in a hard physical job,i dont think so.

And before anyone shouts racist! im not,i just happen to live in the real world.

masonic

maxie014 wrote: »

I cant see how anyone is in support of unlimited immigration,how can that be sane?
Obviously most of those in favour it only affects them positively.
I cant see how we needed accordion players,big issue sellers,the same lady has been doing this job for years!

Net migration figures for the year to September 2015:

From EU: 172,000
From outside EU: 191,000

The majority of migrants currently come from outside the EU and we do have control over that. If the Government really wanted to do something about immigration, then that figure would have been lower.

It's worth remembering this referendum is about club membership only. There are no guarantees any specific EU legislation we are currently following will be dropped should we vote to leave. Non-EU countries like Norway and Switzerland are fully integrated into the EU free movement rules in practice because they have determined access to the single market is more important, so why would we expect the UK Goverment to decide differently?

SimonBlake

Haha - just saw this on Twitter: fundsandshares.co.uk/interesting/562-top-economists-says-brexit-will-harm-economy-poll/ - 562 economists (supposedly 'top') think a Brexit would be bad, reduce our income and increase unemployment.

These 562 are enough to tip the MSE poll to the majority to remain in .

Over to you, 'outers'...

Dird

masonic wrote: »

If the Government really wanted to do something about immigration, then that figure would have been lower.

Not really because they are people that are actually needed to help boost the economy and improve society by filling skilled roles. The government can't just say that because thousands of Poles are coming to stock our shelves that we can stop importing Philippine nurses and Indian doctors

jimjames

masonic wrote: »

It's worth remembering this referendum is about club membership only. There are no guarantees any specific EU legislation we are currently following will be dropped should we vote to leave. Non-EU countries like Norway and Switzerland are fully integrated into the EU free movement rules in practice because they have determined access to the single market is more important, so why would we expect the UK Goverment to decide differently?

I find it really bizarre when most people are relatively risk averse, for example the average person seems to think that S&S are too risky for them, that people are perfectly happy to be voting for something that they have absolutely no idea about how it will affect us and what might happen in future.

People on the Out campaign like Nigel Farage may make certain promises yet aren't in government and have no way to fulfill them. It appears to me that the most likely outcome in the event of a Leave vote is up to 10 years disruption to the economy finishing with an agreement very similar to what we have now but on the lines of Norway. So we still have free movement of people and still are paying money into the EU.

Not exactly what some people seem to be imagining

masonic

Dird wrote: »

Not really because they are people that are actually needed to help boost the economy and improve society by filling skilled roles. The government can't just say that because thousands of Poles are coming to stock our shelves that we can stop importing Philippine nurses and Indian doctors

Do you have any evidence to support your assertion that all non-EU migrants are needed, while all EU migrants are not? I think you'll find there is plenty of fat that could be trimmed from the non-EU figure, and that much of the EU figure consists of work that is needed.

I'd have thought that the hallmark of a highly developed society is many of the immigrants come to work in lesser-skilled roles because the country's own workforce is highly educated and skilled and thus otherwise engaged doing more skilled work.

If, as you say "thousands of Poles are coming to stock our shelves", then these jobs must exist and must not be filled, otherwise you would have said "thousands of Poles are coming here and not working". I don't personally believe Polish shelf-stackers are a threat or competition for the work-willing UK citizen, so I can only conclude that in your example, these "thousands of Poles" "coming to stock our shelves" are needed because the work is beneath the typical UK jobseeker or the typical UK jobseeker is unwilling to relocate to the locations in which these jobs reside.

But clearly not all EU immigrants are unskilled workers. For example, about a third of my work colleagues are highly skilled workers, all educated to PhD level. Many of whom were able to join us at relatively short notice largely as a result of having the right to work in the UK and without them my employer would have had to turn away revenue streams that have turned out to be worth tens of millions over the past 3-4 years. In contrast, trying to bring in people who do not have right to work has been so slow and arduous we almost never do so.

masonic

jimjames wrote: »

I find it really bizarre when most people are relatively risk averse, for example the average person seems to think that S&S are too risky for them, that people are perfectly happy to be voting for something that they have absolutely no idea about how it will affect us and what might happen in future.

People on the Out campaign like Nigel Farage may make certain promises yet aren't in government and have no way to fulfill them. It appears to me that the most likely outcome in the event of a Leave vote is up to 10 years disruption to the economy finishing with an agreement very similar to what we have now but on the lines of Norway. So we still have free movement of people and still are paying money into the EU.

Not exactly what some people seem to be imagining

Well, quite. It could be no clearer that the sitting Government wants to retain our current level of ingration and it has plenty of time before the next election to see to it that we do. From there, successive Governments can pay lip service to these things having been a bad idea, but can simply blame it on the previous Government instead of doing anything about it (which of course is the best option for them politically as there is a risk associated with changing things).

So yes, I think people are expecting a lot of things that will not be delivered. I think it is wrong put such a complex issue to a public referendum with so much unknown. If there were a choice to "Invalidate this referendum and try again later", that's the box I'd tick.

maxie014

Your talking about the top of the food chain masonic,im talking about the bottom.
Lads who do hard graft for not much more than minimum wage,there is no incentive for the employers to pay any more with an unlimited cheap workforce.
Some of these people would be as well off not working on benefits etc,but want to work.
Tell me what mass immigration has done for them?

Dird

masonic wrote: »

Do you have any evidence to support your assertion that all non-EU migrants are needed, while all EU migrants are not? I think you'll find there is plenty of fat that could be trimmed from the non-EU figure, and that much of the EU figure consists of work that is needed.

The majority that come here on a work visa are needed, for the exact example that you yourself gave. To offset the strain that uncontrolled, low-skilled Europeans puts on the system the acceptance of non-EU workers is much stricter so most employees don't see it worth their time and money unless they're exceptional or it's a role difficult to fill with Europeans.
The non-EU exception are the foreigners from Bangladesh/India who arrive simply after marrying their cousins or the 50 year old Brit bringing over his Thai bride.

The government, hopefully and almost surely, will continue to reduce the large number of benefits that Brits receive; this will force uneducated Brits to seek work against their will. The drawback to this is that many of those shelves are already being stocked by Polish people and the vacancies still available, and created with future growth, will be contended against more Poles and the accession of Turkey.