The EU: IN or OUT?

veryintrigued

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Looks to be around 2:1 to leave across the board and 1:3 on to stay.

maxie014

Out of interest,imagine the uk had never joined the eu,if it was a vote to enter the eu as things stand today,how many of us would be voting to join on june 23rd?

masonic

maxie014 wrote: »

Out of interest,imagine the uk had never joined the eu,if it was a vote to enter the eu as things stand today,how many of us would be voting to join on june 23rd?

Voting to join as a new member today would mean joining the single currency, so I don't think a referendum would even be needed.

Had we never joined the EU, no doubt somewhere along the way we would have negotiated access to the single market in exchange for freedom of movement, along with numerous other negotiations for things we wanted in exchange for other concessions, so we might well have been in a very similar situation, but without the club membership and dues. Perhaps with a less London-centric economy with fewer (particularly financial services) companies headquartered here.

I suppose it would be interesting to speculate what the EU might have been like without our membership and influence.

bigadaj

masonic wrote: »

Voting to join as a new member today would mean joining the single currency, so I don't think a referendum would even be needed.

Had we never joined the EU, no doubt somewhere along the way we would have negotiated access to the single market in exchange for freedom of movement, along with numerous other negotiations for things we wanted in exchange for other concessions, so we might well have been in a very similar situation, but without the club membership and dues. Perhaps with a less London-centric economy with fewer (particularly financial services) companies headquartered here.

I suppose it would be interesting to speculate what the EU might have been like without our membership and influence.

Interesting points but joining now wouldn't necessarily also mean taking on the euro, Scandinavia as well as Eastern Europe haven't joined the single currency so far.

masonic

bigadaj wrote: »

Interesting points but joining now wouldn't necessarily also mean taking on the euro, Scandinavia as well as Eastern Europe haven't joined the single currency so far.

Well, I'm not sure which country you mean by "Scandinavia", but running through all three countries, Norway is not in the EU, Sweden is required to adopt the euro once it fulfils the necessary conditions and Denmark has the same legacy opt-out that the UK does. Such an opt-out would not be granted today. Presumably the Eastern European countries are in the same position as Sweden inasmuch as they don't yet meet the requirements, but will have to join if and when they do so (meaning I'm too lazy to check them all out individually )

atush

Is it interesting (or not) that this poll is changing over time? Towards remain?

jimjames

atush wrote: »

Is it interesting (or not) that this poll is changing over time? Towards remain?

It is. Also interesting that the odds seem to be moving the other way...

bigadaj

masonic wrote: »

Well, I'm not sure which country you mean by "Scandinavia", but running through all three countries, Norway is not in the EU, Sweden is required to adopt the euro once it fulfils the necessary conditions and Denmark has the same legacy opt-out that the UK does. Such an opt-out would not be granted today. Presumably the Eastern European countries are in the same position as Sweden inasmuch as they don't yet meet the requirements, but will have to join if and when they do so (meaning I'm too lazy to check them all out individually )

thanks for that, my post was quite lazy.

I didn't realise that Sweden hadn't met the criteria, I suppose it's a bit like the gfc, credit for everyone before and tighter criteria afterwards, if Greece could met the criteria you'd expect Sweden to be able to, particularly as they are only one of 3 or 4 countries never to have defaulted on sovereign debt.

I also hadn't realised teh full implications of joining the euro when suitable, I thought that was a decision for the individual country as well as the eu.

That is one of the issues with remaining, as a country you either get in the bus or don't. Increasing federalisation and every country becoming part of a European super state is implicit in European progression. So if we remain I can't believe we'd still be allowed to be in but remaining as we are.

masonic

bigadaj wrote: »

I didn't realise that Sweden hadn't met the criteria, I suppose it's a bit like the gfc, credit for everyone before and tighter criteria afterwards, if Greece could met the criteria you'd expect Sweden to be able to, particularly as they are only one of 3 or 4 countries never to have defaulted on sovereign debt.

The main criterion that Sweden has not met is successfully participating in the new EU Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) for 2 years. Sweden joined it in 1999, but with a commitment to keep its currency fluctuation within a very narrow 2.25% (shared with Denmark) instead of the usual 15% (which was applied to Greece and all countries since). Sweden therefore appears to have deliberately manipulated its currency to ensure it doesn't meet that condition, even though this has been against its own interests economically to some extent. One could say this is an example of another member flouting an EU treaty when it sees fit, whereas the UK has a track record of being far more compliant with its obligations.

I also hadn't realised teh full implications of joining the euro when suitable, I thought that was a decision for the individual country as well as the eu.

There are no imposed timelines on joining the euro once the conditions are met and it is up to the country to draw up their own plans and timelines, but once a country has committed to joining, then the major part of that decision is made.

That is one of the issues with remaining, as a country you either get in the bus or don't. Increasing federalisation and every country becoming part of a European super state is implicit in European progression. So if we remain I can't believe we'd still be allowed to be in but remaining as we are.

Of course, we were promised a referendum should there be any need to participate in increasing federalisation. In that sense this referendum has been wasted on the issue of club membership. There is nothing the sitting Government has committed to axing if we were to leave. If we remain and such a change should come along in the future, a future Government could use the result as justification to accept it. So that is a risk.

On the other hand, not being part of the euro, and crucially having opt-outs from the area of freedom, security and justice (including the Schengen Area), somewhat precludes us from increasing federalisation if we don't want it, providing those opt-outs continue to be exercised. Should we remain in the EU, then our non-participation in these matters cannot be used against us in terms of our relations with the remainder of the EU.

Should we leave, those opt-outs become null and void and there is a risk that we could be coerced into adopting some minor treaties we currently have the pleasure of being opted-out of. The EU would decide what it required of us as an outsider in exchange for those parts of the relationship we wanted to keep. They probably won't concede as much as they've had to while we were a member of the club.

After leaving, we would have no influence in the future direction of the EU. Which is also a risk. It might be tempting to say we should just leave them to their own devices, but what happens in Europe will affect us in one way or another.

Which brings me back to the problem that it is not in the UK's interest to make a decision on EU membership at the present time.

veryintrigued

atush wrote: »

Is it interesting (or not) that this poll is changing over time? Towards remain?

Some of the remainers seem to be dismissing the poll (indeed any pro Brexit poll) - maybe until if they show in favour of remain....

The BBC seem to have them neck and neck.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589

Whilst as JJ says the bookies have the remainers lead narrowing over the last week.