The EU: IN or OUT?

mrginge

jimjames wrote: »

I'd say a lot have no idea what pain will come if we leave. The economic situation here has been quite benign over the last few years with interest rates and inflation both stable. I think it is highly likely that both will rise possibly substantially if we leave and I'm not sure many leavers are expecting mortgage rates to go up.

Hello.
Can you advise on what the situation will be if we remain. I am interested in how you think the continued deterioration in the eurozone economies will impact on uk exports and also in terms of further incentivising economic migration from poorer to richer countries.

Nocto

uk1 wrote: »

I was somewhat saddened to read in this morning's times that Stephen Kinnock, a junior member of the well known Kinncok EU gravy train dynasty invoked Jo Cox's memory in pursuit of the reaminers cause. Shameful.

These were his comments which were in an article ostensibly about Jo which I find shamefully opportunist and should be condemned by both the remain and exit side.

I am a remain voter, but I agree with you that Stephen Kinnock’s comments in a national newspaper are inappropriate, as they will be seen by many to be using Jo Cox’s tragic murder to influence the outcome of next weeks referendum.

I fear that in the event of a narrow remain victory (and it’s likely to be close either way) there are those who will feel ‘cheated’ if they think the actions of a lunatic were exploited to change the result, which could also be ‘real oxygen’ to nasty groups like the BNP, EDL, Britain First, etc. etc.

I would suggest that the best way to ‘Remember Jo at the ballot box’ is simply to vote, and to vote for what YOU believe in. Then graciously accept the result even if it doesn’t go your way.

Like many I expect, I had never heard of Jo Cox until this week. From what I have seen and heard about her, it sounds like she was a superb politician who above all else would have believed in democracy and the power of the ballot box.

I personally feel that her memory would be best served by a high voter turnout, and a result that is accepted as the view of the majority.

RIP Jo Cox MP

uk1

Nocto wrote: »

I am a remain voter, but I agree with you that Stephen Kinnock’s comments in a national newspaper are inappropriate, as they will be seen by many to be using Jo Cox’s tragic murder to influence the outcome of next weeks referendum.

I fear that in the event of a narrow remain victory (and it’s likely to be close either way) there are those who will feel ‘cheated’ if they think the actions of a lunatic were exploited to change the result, which could also be ‘real oxygen’ to nasty groups like the BNP, EDL, Briton First, etc. etc.

I would suggest that the best way to ‘Remember Jo at the ballot box’ is simply to vote, and to vote for what YOU believe in. Then graciously accept the result even if it doesn’t go your way.

Like many I expect, I had never heard of Jo Cox until this week. From what I have seen and heard about her, it sounds like she was a superb politician who above all else would have believed in democracy and the power of the ballot box.

I personally feel that her memory would be best served by a high voter turnout, and a result that is accepted as the view of the majority.

RIP Jo Cox MP

I could not agree more.

I am an exiter, but I have this nagging doubt that she would have wanted her colleagues to continue to fight vigorously for the cause she felt very strongly for and that is the argument to remain. That is why I felt uncomfortable about the motives for the purdah.

With the benefit of hindsight, I think it wasn't black and white. Some clearly feel the right thing to do was to halt the debate as a genuine show of respect, misplaced or not. I do however think some saw it as a convenient moment to take the heat out of what was becoming highly destructive. In a terrible way, perhaps the halting of the nastiness would have been something she wanted.

I find it sad that you only ever hear about someone wonderful, and Jo does sound wonderful, in a tragic situation like this. Perhaps a very tiny part of her legacy will make the rest of this debate - the most important debate of our lives - a better quality debate and for that we ought to thank her. All of us. Both sides of the argument.

Thanks again for your nice post even if we disagree about the EU ....:D

Jeff

Thrugelmir

Nocto wrote: »

I am a remain voter, but I agree with you that Stephen Kinnock’s comments in a national newspaper are inappropriate, as they will be seen by many to be using Jo Cox’s tragic murder to influence the outcome of next weeks referendum.

I fear that in the event of a narrow remain victory (and it’s likely to be close either way) there are those who will feel ‘cheated’ if they think the actions of a lunatic were exploited to change the result, which could also be ‘real oxygen’ to nasty groups like the BNP, EDL, Briton First, etc. etc.

I would suggest that the best way to ‘Remember Jo at the ballot box’ is simply to vote, and to vote for what YOU believe in. Then graciously accept the result even if it doesn’t go your way.

Like many I expect, I had never heard of Jo Cox until this week. From what I have seen and heard about her, it sounds like she was a superb politician who above all else would have believed in democracy and the power of the ballot box.

I personally feel that her memory would be best served by a high voter turnout, and a result that is accepted as the view of the majority.

RIP Jo Cox MP

At least both campaigns had the common decency to postpone the debate. Not to feel it necessary to raise it in a political manner which many seem to feel the urge to do. MP's of all parties enter Parliament in a belief to do common good in the name of democracy.

uk1

Thrugelmir wrote: »

At least both campaigns had the common decency to postpone the debate. Not to feel it necessary to raise it in a political manner which many seem to feel the urge to do. MP's of all parties enter Parliament in a belief to do common good in the name of democracy.

I agree ... the only person I have seen that broke the agreed line was Stephen Kinnock.

Jeff

BananaRepublic

jimjames wrote: »

I'd say a lot have no idea what pain will come if we leave. The economic situation here has been quite benign over the last few years with interest rates and inflation both stable. I think it is highly likely that both will rise possibly substantially if we leave and I'm not sure many leavers are expecting mortgage rates to go up.

The economic situation was far from benign around 2008 and in the following few years. The UK coalition government took some difficult decisions which in my view helped stabilise the UK economy which is why it is today stable, albeit not yet in the clear as we still have a large deficit. This was nothing to do with the EU. Indeed countries which took more 'humane' routes post the great crash have not done so well, and some EU countries are still in deep doo doo. The IMF predicted that our cuts would cause a crisis in the UK economy, which did not happen, and yet many believe their predictions that a Brexit would be catastrophic. The IMF is a busted flush.

If we leave, there are two years of transition before we exit properly. The main problem is uncertainty, which the markets do not like. But they tend to factor that in quickly, so we might have a stock market dip of 10-20% (a figure taken out of thin air based on no knowledge), but then things will pick up, as they see that the sun still rises. Companies might delay investment, since they will not know what is happening, so it would be important for the government to allay fears. So yes there probably would be a hit on growth, I think I read 1% of GDP, but it is the long term we need to focus on, just as Germany had a huge hit from unification.

uk1

BananaRepublic wrote: »

The economic situation was far from benign around 2008 and in the following few years. The UK coalition government took some difficult decisions which in my view helped stabilise the UK economy which is why it is today stable, albeit not yet in the clear as we still have a large deficit. This was nothing to do with the EU. Indeed countries which took more 'humane' routes post the great crash have not done so well, and some EU countries are still in deep doo doo. The IMF predicted that our cuts would cause a crisis in the UK economy, which did not happen, and yet many believe their predictions that a Brexit would be catastrophic. The IMF is a busted flush.

If we leave, there are two years of transition before we exit properly. The main problem is uncertainty, which the markets do not like. But they tend to factor that in quickly, so we might have a stock market dip of 10-20% (a figure taken out of thin air based on no knowledge), but then things will pick up, as they see that the sun still rises. Companies might delay investment, since they will not know what is happening, so it would be important for the government to allay fears. So yes there probably would be a hit on growth, I think I read 1% of GDP, but it is the long term we need to focus on, just as Germany had a huge hit from unification.

The mid-point hit on GDP used by the chancellor was 0.5%. Most of the hit on markets has taken place in contemplation. So most of that hit has been already arrived.

Jeff

BananaRepublic

uk1 wrote: »

The mid-point hit on GDP used by the chancellor was 0.5%. Most of the hit on markets has taken place in contemplation. So most of that hit has been already arrived.

Jeff

GDP and markets are not of course the same thing. The hit to GDP has not arrived.

Interestingly David Smith of the Sunday Times is against Brexit. I normally respect him, but he is very partisan which is a shame.

uk1

BananaRepublic wrote: »

GDP and markets are not of course the same thing. The hit to GDP has not arrived.

Interestingly David Smith of the Sunday Times is against Brexit. I normally respect him, but he is very partisan which is a shame.

With respect, the hit to GDP starts when people stop investing and when people slow down their spending. If you do not believe that this has already happened in contemplation of a possible Brexit you are disagreeing with the main argument of the remainers and all of the economists they claim supports them.

Jeff

Paul_1977

Voting OUT, everyone I know is as well.