Will Brexit lead to mass deportations?

[Deleted User]

I'm not sure if I have understood it correctly, but according to this article:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-brexit-lead-mass-deportations/22942

which I don't bother quoting as you're all capable of clicking on a link, the moment the UK informs the EU of its intention to leave the club, both EU citizens in UK and UK expats in the EU will lose all acquired rights.

According to the article the Vienna convention doesn't apply to the EU law.

Do they have a point? And, if so, is it a good thing?

Will there be deportations in case of Brexit?

I think this is something that the government should make clear before the referendum is held, not after.

I'm not eligible to vote, but those who are should be told in advance what could happen and not just left to play with ifs, buts, maybes.

michaels

Project fear

CLAPTON

ciaccino wrote: »

I'm not sure if I have understood it correctly, but according to this article:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-brexit-lead-mass-deportations/22942

which I don't bother quoting as you're all capable of clicking on a link, the moment the UK informs the EU of its intention to leave the club, both EU citizens in UK and UK expats in the EU will lose all acquired rights.

According to the article the Vienna convention doesn't apply to the EU law.

Do they have a point? And, if so, is it a good thing?

Will there be deportations in case of Brexit?

I think this is something that the government should make clear before the referendum is held, not after.

I'm not eligible to vote, but those who are should be told in advance what could happen and not just left to play with ifs, buts, maybes.

only a rather desperate 'remainder' would consider this nonsense.

mayonnaise

michaels wrote: »

Project fear

If Britain withdraws, Brits will no longer be EU citizens, and EU citizens will lose their right to live in the UK based on the EU treaties.

Not so much project fear, more like project fact.
Although I don't expect mass deportations, the fact remains a new bilateral agreement will need to be set up. (which will most likely contain continuing free movement of labour )

TrickyTree83

I would expect that EU nationals with families or owned homes or jobs would be entitled to remain at the very least. Deporting people in these situations would be a violation of human rights which is governed by the ECHR, a totally separate body to the EU, and one which we will remain a member of for the near future.

I would also expect that EU nationals who are in the country claiming state aid (i.e. housing benefit, job seekers allowance, possibly disability benefit?) may be told that they need to move back home if they have none of the above anchors (family, home ownership, job). That would be reciprocated to UK expats living in the EU claiming state aid I would think, again depending on the anchors they have in the country of residence.

Common sense tells me that although the UK government would have the right to attempt to send EU nationals back to the EU I sincerely doubt it would happen in practice. I believe that all that would happen is that no more would be allowed to enter, which would in turn lead to family members of EU nationals allowed to live in the UK being allowed in on the family visa, much like non-EU nationals at the moment.

But that's my opinion, not fact.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

Not so much project fear, more like project fact.
Although I don't expect mass deportations, the fact remains a new bilateral agreement will need to be set up. (which will most likely contain continuing free movement of labour )

so you think its fact
but it won't happen
and actually immigration will continue as now

almost beyond absurdity.

but you still are massively afraid of all those non white non christians coming.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Project fear

You think?

A good chunk of Brexit votes are from people that don't like immigration to the UK. Surely it's not beyond the realms of possibility that some idiot is going to make migrants from the EU apply for a right to remain in the UK. Otherwise what's the point?

Look at the threads we get on here about the possibility of Turkey joining the EU and the fears of millions of 'fit young men' (yeah, we all know they mean 'Islamic terrorists') coming to Britain and the hand wringing about school places and the low paid.

For many, not all by any means but for many, Brexit is about stopping Piotr and Mohammed coming to Britain. If 51% of Brits see immigration as a major problem it's hard to see how that wouldn't be driving the Brexit vote:

http://www.politico.eu/article/immigration-brexit-uk-survey-poll-health-service-finances-economy-leave-remain/

According to Com Res, the biggest driver of votes regarding the referendum is controlling immigration:

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/ITV-News-Daily-Mail_EU-Referendum-Poll_May-2016-7251.pdf

If Brexit does win I suspect the next step will be for the UK people to look at some sort of attempt to secure the borders. I'd be surprised if that didn't include booting out foreigners.

TrickyTree83

Generali wrote: »

You think?

A good chunk of Brexit votes are from people that don't like immigration to the UK. Surely it's not beyond the realms of possibility that some idiot is going to make migrants from the EU apply for a right to remain in the UK. Otherwise what's the point?

Look at the threads we get on here about the possibility of Turkey joining the EU and the fears of millions of 'fit young men' (yeah, we all know they mean 'Islamic terrorists') coming to Britain and the hand wringing about school places and the low paid.

For many, not all by any means but for many, Brexit is about stopping Piotr and Mohammed coming to Britain. If 51% of Brits see immigration as a major problem it's hard to see how that wouldn't be driving the Brexit vote:

http://www.politico.eu/article/immigration-brexit-uk-survey-poll-health-service-finances-economy-leave-remain/

According to Com Res, the biggest driver of votes regarding the referendum is controlling immigration:

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/ITV-News-Daily-Mail_EU-Referendum-Poll_May-2016-7251.pdf

If Brexit does win I suspect the next step will be for the UK people to look at some sort of attempt to secure the borders. I'd be surprised if that didn't include booting out foreigners.

I'm voting to leave.

My wife is Ukrainian. A result of that is many of our friends are also immigrants. I don't want to stop Piotr and Mohammed.

I would like our democratic rights back.

I would like mass deregulation and dynamic innovative industry.

I would like to buy food from around the world and not from France and Germany because of EU protectionism.

I would like to cease giving money to the EU project that we could use in the UK.

I would like to strike trade deals with the rest of the world, something the EU has failed to achieve in the vast majority of cases where we're already trading with that nation (see China, USA, India).

I would like to give the fisherman back their territory that we ceded to Brussels.

And my wife feels the same as do many of her EU national friends. They are so very confused why there is a case for remain after they have experienced the collapse of their national industries after joining the EU. Declining wages and living standards in countries like Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania. Causing them to emigrate to the UK. What a bizarre set of circumstances.

[Deleted User]

Can anybody provide a factual evidence that what was written in the article is wrong? Has anybody bothered reading it?

HornetSaver

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I would expect that EU nationals with families or owned homes or jobs would be entitled to remain at the very least.

I would expect everyone to vote for rational reasons on the 23rd of June, whichever way they ultimately decide we should go down.

They won't.

Deporting people in these situations would be a violation of human rights which is governed by the ECHR, a totally separate body to the EU, and one which we will remain a member of for the near future.

It's a club that Tories are somewhat more united about leaving than the European Union.

I would also expect that EU nationals who are in the country claiming state aid (i.e. housing benefit, job seekers allowance, possibly disability benefit?) may be told that they need to move back home if they have none of the above anchors (family, home ownership, job). That would be reciprocated to UK expats living in the EU claiming state aid I would think, again depending on the anchors they have in the country of residence.

As far as their right to remain is concerned I'd expect them to be treated the same way as any other citizen of their country. Whether they'd be entitled to benefits is another matter.

Common sense tells me that although the UK government would have the right to attempt to send EU nationals back to the EU I sincerely doubt it would happen in practice.

Common sense told everyone that we'd have a hung parliament last year, that the SNP would have a significant majority despite the Scottish electoral system, and that Welsh people would vote for someone other than Neil Hamilton. That said, I agree with you, that does seem like a common sense outcome.

I believe that all that would happen is that no more would be allowed to enter, which would in turn lead to family members of EU nationals allowed to live in the UK being allowed in on the family visa, much like non-EU nationals at the moment.

In an effort to get the immigration figures down, the government truly have clamped down on family visas in recent years. Post-Brexit I doubt there would suddently be a great appetite to start liberalizing the immigration system for non-workers.

TrickyTree83

I read a little of it. At the end the article basically says the same thing I said earlier.

Whilst the UK government would be legally able to deport EU nationals in the UK after a leave vote the likelihood of that actually happening are probably similar to that of you winning the Euromillions, especially when you consider we're unable to deport terrorist sympathisers because of the ECHR.