Will Brexit lead to mass deportations?

[Deleted User]

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I read a little of it. At the end the article basically says the same thing I said earlier.

Whilst the UK government would be legally able to deport EU nationals in the UK after a leave vote the likelihood of that actually happening are probably similar to that of you winning the Euromillions, especially when you consider we're unable to deport terrorist sympathisers because of the ECHR.

So you agree that the UK can deport EU immigrants, or at least impose the same status of the current non-EU citizens.

So you appear to agree that this is a fact.

TrickyTree83

HornetSaver wrote: »

I would expect everyone to vote for rational reasons on the 23rd of June, whichever way they ultimately decide we should go down.

They won't.



It's a club that Tories are somewhat more united about leaving than the European Union.



As far as their right to remain is concerned I'd expect them to be treated the same way as any other citizen of their country. Whether they'd be entitled to benefits is another matter.



Common sense told everyone that we'd have a hung parliament last year, that the SNP would have a significant majority despite the Scottish electoral system, and that Welsh people would vote for someone other than Neil Hamilton. That said, I agree with you, that does seem like a common sense outcome.



In an effort to get the immigration figures down, the government truly have clamped down on family visas in recent years. Post-Brexit I doubt there would suddently be a great appetite to start liberalizing the immigration system for non-workers.

I would find it odd (and offensive) if the UK government was to deport these groups of people. Not least because of the possible reciprocal treatment UK expats would be subjected to but because I just don't think that is who we are as a country, some of us are but then every society has people with extreme views.

I'll concede that I'm aware the Conservatives want out of the ECHR, it's not quite at the same stage as the possible vote to leave the EU on the 23rd (less than a month away now).

With regard to the family visa system, we haven't experienced a crackdown. My wifes family are still allowed to come on family visit visas. They have a track record of having a reason to return to their home country (Ukraine) and have done so each time their visit here has ended so I guess that counts in their favour.

TrickyTree83

ciaccino wrote: »

So you agree that the UK can deport EU immigrants, or at least impose the same status of the current non-EU citizens.

So you appear to agree that this is a fact.

I would have thought it was quite obvious that EU nationals would lose the legal right to reside if the UK voted to leave, but rather than arranging thousands of coaches to pick everyone up, take them to a ferry (as it's cheaper than an air fare) and drop them all off in Calais I think they could expect to be treated well, perhaps a visa amnesty where they can all apply and be automatically granted a visa and the government would then manage it from that point onwards.

CLAPTON

ciaccino wrote: »

So you agree that the UK can deport EU immigrants, or at least impose the same status of the current non-EU citizens.

So you appear to agree that this is a fact.

The UK can 'legally' deport these people now.
It however chooses to abide by various conventions and treaties but it can chose to disregard them by changing UK law.
so basically no change.

[Deleted User]

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I would have thought it was quite obvious that EU nationals would lose the legal right to reside if the UK voted to leave

Good. So we agree that the Home Office was right in saying so and that vote leave were wrong in denying it.

CLAPTON wrote: »

The UK can 'legally' deport these people now.

So you are saying the UK can legally deport EU citizens even without a referendum? I hear this for the first time.

CLAPTON

ciaccino wrote: »

Good. So we agree that the Home Office was right in saying so and that vote leave were wrong in denying it.


So you are saying the UK can legally deport EU citizens even without a referendum? I hear this for the first time.

Who do you think makes the laws in the UK?
Who do you think can change the laws in the UK


Many things are possible but many are extremely unlikely: like throwing people out after brexit.

TrickyTree83

ciaccino wrote: »

Good. So we agree that the Home Office was right in saying so and that vote leave were wrong in denying it.

You have to accept that there is no precedent for this within EU or UK law. However I would draw your attention to what happened during the breakup of the USSR.

Millions of Russians found themselves in countries where they were not citizens. That status of quasi-citizen still exists today for Russian speakers in some Eastern European EU states!!

So in that respect we can draw parallels, whilst the UK government would have the ability to do so, it's highly unlikely that they will do so like the Third Reich did when cleansing the ghettos of Poland. It's not going to be as straight forward as the way both campaigns are putting it forward. Remain are correct in that the legal right to reside will no longer be there. I've not seen what Leave said on the matter but I imagine it would be something along the lines of what I've been trying to explain.

robin_banks

Generali wrote: »

You think?

A good chunk of Brexit votes are from people that don't like immigration to the UK. Surely it's not beyond the realms of possibility that some idiot is going to make migrants from the EU apply for a right to remain in the UK. Otherwise what's the point?

Look at the threads we get on here about the possibility of Turkey joining the EU and the fears of millions of 'fit young men' (yeah, we all know they mean 'Islamic terrorists') coming to Britain and the hand wringing about school places and the low paid.

For many, not all by any means but for many, Brexit is about stopping Piotr and Mohammed coming to Britain. If 51% of Brits see immigration as a major problem it's hard to see how that wouldn't be driving the Brexit vote:

http://www.politico.eu/article/immigration-brexit-uk-survey-poll-health-service-finances-economy-leave-remain/

According to Com Res, the biggest driver of votes regarding the referendum is controlling immigration:

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/ITV-News-Daily-Mail_EU-Referendum-Poll_May-2016-7251.pdf

If Brexit does win I suspect the next step will be for the UK people to look at some sort of attempt to secure the borders. I'd be surprised if that didn't include booting out foreigners.

Isn't part of the anti EU argument 'red tape'?


They'd be creating an almighty amount of red tape for an anti 'red tape' line of thinking......


And there will inevitably be a counter requirement from the remaining EU states for the same. Those 1.5 million-ish Brits in Europe left to live in Spain etc for a reason.


Stanley for example left Accrington for Alicante. He might want back for a triple heart by-pass. But not to see out his days here.


And I don't think somehow border controls in South Armagh are going to be entirely without creating a fearful kip of the reel as my mum would've once said.

HornetSaver

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Not least because of the possible reciprocal treatment UK expats would be subjected to but because I just don't think that is who we are as a country, some of us are but then every society has people with extreme views.

The majority of whom will be voting leave, albeit for very different reasons to most of those that vote leave.

I'll concede that I'm aware the Conservatives want out of the ECHR, it's not quite at the same stage as the possible vote to leave the EU on the 23rd (less than a month away now).

The difference being that the Tories are pretty united on leaving the ECHR, whereas they're pretty much 50/50 over Brexit.

I'll put it out there that a single political party deciding to end the UK's observance of the ECHR could create a constitutional crisis, because I can't see the Queen giving Royal Assent to that.

With regard to the family visa system, we haven't experienced a crackdown. My wifes family are still allowed to come on family visit visas.

I don't know how anyone could have possibly read your previous comment and thought you were referring to anything other than family of a settled person visas (the ones that allow you to live here long term on the basis of having family here).

TrickyTree83

HornetSaver wrote: »

The majority of whom will be voting leave, albeit for very different reasons to most of those that vote leave.



The difference being that the Tories are pretty united on leaving the ECHR, whereas they're pretty much 50/50 over Brexit.

I'll put it out there that a single political party deciding to end the UK's observance of the ECHR could create a constitutional crisis, because I can't see the Queen giving Royal Assent to that.



I don't know how anyone could have possibly read your previous comment and thought you were referring to anything other than family of a settled person visas (the ones that allow you to live here long term on the basis of having family here).

Sorry I should have been clearer. We did actually look into the family settlement visas when the civil war broke out in Eastern Ukraine just in case. At the time the UK government was in my opinion quite relaxed about such a visa. If my wifes family were in danger (being Russian speaking in a Russo-phobic country) that we would have grounds to apply for them to settle here with us on the grounds that they had family here (i.e. me and my wife) and they were in danger in their home country. Perhaps the example I'm giving is far too fine a grain of detail to make a statement on the governments position on such visas in general. But that was our experience of it.