Can UK veto Turkey?

cells

I dont see a big need for turkey in the free movement within the EU I am only pointing out that ideas of many millions coming are just wrong.

If they are to get full EU rights I would put the 7 year wait for new countries to 20 years. So if they get in by say 2030 it will be 2050 before the Turks can move into europe with free movement. By 2050 their country will be much richer and the need/want for migration will reduce every single year from now until then. My best guess is that by 2050 they will have ~25 million new homes and that Turkey will have surpassed Italy in wealth.

The reason migrants bypass turkey for Europe is that those migrants are the very poor who have nothing its not the same as a Turkish family in professional jobs and with a mortgage free home.

Also there are plenty of syrian migrants in Turkey probably more than the whole of Europe combined. A large number have indeed decided to make turkey their permanent home.

I guess overall I am not that concerned because I do not feel any significant number would head to the UK in any realistic view of how things might play out. Turkey is not the same as poland in 2004 already she is twice as rich per capita than poland was back in 2004 and will be at least twice as rich (maybe 3x as rich before they get in, in which case the GDP per head will be the same as Italy and close to France/UK levels) again before they are let in.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

I dont see a big need for turkey in the free movement within the EU I am only pointing out that ideas of many millions coming are just wrong.

If they are to get full EU rights I would put the 7 year wait for new countries to 20 years. So if they get in by say 2030 it will be 2050 before the Turks can move into europe with free movement. By 2050 their country will be much richer and the need/want for migration will reduce every single year from now until then. My best guess is that by 2050 they will have ~25 million new homes and that Turkey will have surpassed Italy in wealth.

The reason migrants bypass turkey for Europe is that those migrants are the very poor who have nothing its not the same as a Turkish family in professional jobs and with a mortgage free home.

Also there are plenty of syrian migrants in Turkey probably more than the whole of Europe combined. A large number have indeed decided to make turkey their permanent home.

I guess overall I am not that concerned because I do not feel any significant number would head to the UK in any realistic view of how things might play out. Turkey is not the same as poland in 2004 already she is twice as rich per capita than poland was back in 2004 and will be at least twice as rich (maybe 3x as rich before they get in, in which case the GDP per head will be the same as Italy and close to France/UK levels) again before they are let in.

If the Turks won't come then why do you want a 20 year waiting period?
is that because you don't believe your forecasts ?
Why not allow then now as they won't be coming anyway.

Your forecasts seem to be based on a couple of people you meet in London and your assessment of well off middle class Turks in professional jobs.

I await with keen anticipation your detailed facts and figures, to show that by next year, the EU will be emptying as people emigrate to Turkey.

Millions will come if they were allowed to settle here.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

If the Turks won't come then why do you want a 20 year waiting period?

well there is a 7 year waiting period for new countries anyway, I would up it to 20 years to appease the 'i hate migrants' group who will mostly be dead or senile by that point.

I think the soonest its possible will be 2023 plus the 7 year wait so 2030 that is probably sufficient time for them to develop even more (remember they are already twice as rich as poland was in 2004) so I would not object to that

is that because you don't believe your forecasts ?
Why not allow then now as they won't be coming anyway.

Right now lots will come to Europe. Maybe as many as 3 million to Germany, 1/5th to 1/10th that number to the UK. Again I dont feel that would be the worst thing in the world but you would probably burst a vein so for your sake they can wait a few more years.

Your forecasts seem to be based on a couple of people you meet in London and your assessment of well off middle class Turks in professional jobs.

Yes perhaps but also on economic data. The fact is its rapidly developing and enriching. Are more turks likely to come now vs 20 years ago? hell no. Are more turks likely to come in 20 years time v today. hell no

Millions will come if they were allowed to settle here.

Why would you expect multiple times as many turks to come than poles did? When the turks are richer already, when the turks are still at least 20 years away and getting even richer, when the turks if they get in will have not just the UK but the UK France and Germany to choose from?

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

well there is a 7 year waiting period for new countries anyway, I would up it to 20 years to appease the 'i hate migrants' group who will mostly be dead or senile by that point.

I think the soonest its possible will be 2023 plus the 7 year wait so 2030 that is probably sufficient time for them to develop even more (remember they are already twice as rich as poland was in 2004) so I would not object to that




Right now lots will come to Europe. Maybe as many as 3 million to Germany, 1/5th to 1/10th that number to the UK. Again I dont feel that would be the worst thing in the world but you would probably burst a vein so for your sake they can wait a few more years.




Yes perhaps but also on economic data. The fact is its rapidly developing and enriching. Are more turks likely to come now vs 20 years ago? hell no. Are more turks likely to come in 20 years time v today. hell no






Why would you expect multiple times as many turks to come than poles did? When the turks are richer already, when the turks are still at least 20 years away and getting even richer, when the turks if they get in will have not just the UK but the UK France and Germany to choose from?

so you believe we should allow Turks to come in unlimited numbers right now, as few will come all because your assessment of a few 'professional' Turks?

It seems amasing a country so rich isn't being welcomed with open arms.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Taking it step by step, what are the benefits to the UK (and other EU countries) of Turkey joining the EU?

Strategic. Would be a disaster if fell under Russian influence.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

so you believe we should allow Turks to come in unlimited numbers right now, as few will come all because you assessment of a few 'professional' Turks?
.

trying to project that fear Clapton?

Much fewer turks will come than did poles no conceivable outcome points to more.

It seems amasing a country so rich isn't being welcomed with open arms.

maybe that is the reason they are not welcomed with open arms. Its probably easier for Germany/France to admit a bunch of small poor countries than to admit a country the size of Germany and the wealth of italy which might actually have political power within the EU of a scale which might make Germany dominance a little harder.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But if the government does materially reduce immigration the electorate will vote them out anyway because of the economic damage such a reduction would cause.

Have to disagree there.

It is simple to understand the argument that uncontrolled migration does compress wages. It comes down to simple supply and demand. If there are more workers than jobs then wages will remain low. If you struggle to fill your position then you will need to increase the wage to attract potential employees.

That is of course very different to skilled migrant workers. Nurses, doctors, architects, IT professionals, the list goes on. Where there is a business demand the visa restrictions are lifted. You can see that using the tiered points system we currently have in place for non-EU migrants.

On a very basic level those are the two systems we have at the moment and EU migration has access to the same systems as the native British public. Then compare the average national wage in the Eastern European countries and it's no surprise that they choose to come here to work for minimum wage rather than earn even less in their home country. The subsequent increase in our national minimum wage to circa £9 will only serve to exacerbate this issue.

cells

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Have to disagree there.

It is simple to understand the argument that uncontrolled migration does compress wages. It comes down to simple supply and demand. If there are more workers than jobs then wages will remain low. If you struggle to fill your position then you will need to increase the wage to attract potential employees.

That is of course very different to skilled migrant workers. Nurses, doctors, architects, IT professionals, the list goes on. Where there is a business demand the visa restrictions are lifted. You can see that using the tiered points system we currently have in place for non-EU migrants.

On a very basic level those are the two systems we have at the moment and EU migration has access to the same systems as the native British public. Then compare the average national wage in the Eastern European countries and it's no surprise that they choose to come here to work for minimum wage rather than earn even less in their home country. The subsequent increase in our national minimum wage to circa £9 will only serve to exacerbate this issue.

migrants do not just add to supply of labor they add to demand of goods and services. Its unlikely they have much of a net surplus to supply than to demand. Very few people native or migrant have a big surplus of labor v demands.

also unemployment in the UK is low, about 5% and much lower yet if you look at those unemployed for 6 months or more (something like 2%). So if unemployment is about 2% and the migrants are doing all the low paid crap jobs that must mean the locals who would be doing those jobs if there were no migrants are instead doing higher paid better jobs.

Ed-P

Despite what the quitters say, Turkey is a long, long way from being allowed to join the European Union. As others have said, the EU is stringing them along in order to try and get a grip on the refugee crisis.

Sadly now that those who want a Brexit are quickly losing the economic arguments, they have resorted to what they do best, racism. Apparently Turks are a threat to us more civilised Western Europeans. I also had the misfortune of watching the 'Brexit Movie', I was surprised to see them representing the Italians as lazy and a Frenchman with onions around his neck.

Sadly, it wasn't exactly a surprise- hopefully they will soon be silenced once the country votes to remain. Oh, there seems to be little chance of that now http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681 - it is funny that Farage is now ignoring democracy.

Oh, and good luck with keeping the NHS going after Brexit, I can't see many of the foreign NHS workers wanting to stay in such a narrow-minded and xenophobic country.

mayonnaise

Ed-P wrote: »

Oh, and good luck with keeping the NHS going after Brexit, I can't see many of the foreign NHS workers wanting to stay in such a narrow-minded and xenophobic country.

Yup. Deporting a few millions of young, healthy and economically active EU workers and exchanging them for a few million geriatric costa des sollers will do miracles for the NHS. Hey, at least we'll have control over our borders.