BREXIT - Why?

uk1

lessavyfav wrote: »

I look at the people who are for Brexit and whether I align with their values.

Rupert Murdoch, Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Nick Griffin, Marine Le Pen?

No thanks.

Would I wish to align with someone who is going to make such an important decision on this dumb basis?

No thanks.

bowlhead99

uk1 wrote: »

You posted that on the day we leave manufactuters will decide not to locate in the UK but Poland instead. For the benefit of less well informed people like me could you name a few manufacturers considering opening up in the UK that we will possibly lose? I haven't read of any.

There a thousands of UK business that export to the EU, or are part of the supply chain to a business that exports to the EU, or imports from the EU for that matter. And there are thousands of overseas companies who have business interests here or production facilities here or include this country in their considerations for new things they're planning.

This means that probably on an hourly basis someone is making a strategic decision (on allocation of capital, assets, resources, people) which is wholly or partially driven by business confidence/certainty around the UK's political, economic or regulatory relationship with its European neighbours. So, I am not going to sit here and try to type in the names of all the people who might be considering opening up in the UK, investing more in the UK, or at least not investing less in the UK, just because you haven't heard of any.

However, as an example, Microsoft wrote a letter to more than 5000 of its UK staff, saying that EU membership was one of several key criteria which made UK one of "the most attractive places in Europe for the range of investments we have made; at key moments we have specifically chosen to invest here". For example they are starting cloud services out of UK-based data centres this year, and put their first non US R&D lab here (Cambridge) because you can get great British scientists and also EU scientists all employed by the same entity in the same place without faffing about with visas.

Last Thursday the heads of 15 major multinationals including GE, Cisco, Mars, Airbus, Hitachi, Ford Europe, IBM UK/Eire, signed a letter to the FT calling for UK to remain in the EU, claiming that, "if there is one thing we as investors do not like, it is economic uncertainty". Representatives from some of the companies (employing 170k people in the UK) met Cameron later that day, several of them made the point that they had located their European headquarters in Britain knowing they would have access to the single market. It's a massive piece of what Britain has to offer to foreign direct investors.

Now, there are some UK business that are happy to leave, and some that are not happy to leave, and some that are not bothered. But it is absolutely laughable to say that if we vote to leave it is just business as usual and nobody minds a bit of uncertainty because there's always some uncertainty.

People are already deferring investment and recruitment decisions waiting for June 23. If the answer is "we're leaving", and our politicians are going to then have to spend a couple of years trying to negotiate better trade deals than currently exist anywhere in the world - with the EU, with the 50 countries currently covered by EU trade deals, and with countries like the US with which the EU is currently negotiating - then that will not exactly get those investment and recruitment plans accelerated favourably from a UK GDP and jobs perspective.

But sure, if you like, keep on thinking that no investor is going to build a factory in the UK on June 24th anyway so it doesn't matter.

jimjames

Yet again a well reasoned and balanced post from bowlhead. I really do wonder how people can have their heads so far in the sand and blaming everyone for being biased and to not realise the impact that this decision could cause.

jimjames

LHW99 wrote: »

Markets won't like the uncertainty beforehand, but rather like during elections, once the result is decided they will steady - whichever way it goes.

Problem is if it's an out vote the uncertainty continues for many years into the future

CLAPTON

jimjames wrote: »

Problem is if it's an out vote the uncertainty continues for many years into the future

never been any uncertainty before ?

uk1

jimjames wrote: »

Yet again a well reasoned and balanced post from bowlhead. I really do wonder how people can have their heads so far in the sand and blaming everyone for being biased and to not realise the impact that this decision could cause.

since when has "balanced" meant the same as "one sided"?

Jeff

Fabio79

What's everyone's view on investing money with Brexit looming? Got 20K to invest and was thinking about Peer 2 Peer lending but may hold off until the Referendum is done. Thinking all this may be a storm in a teacup?

uk1

jimjames wrote: »

Problem is if it's an out vote the uncertainty continues for many years into the future

Perhaps us people with our head in the sands prefer "uncertainty" than the certainty of continuous adverse certainty?

BananaRepublic

bowlhead99 wrote: »

There a thousands of UK business that export to the EU, or are part of the supply chain to a business that exports to the EU, or imports from the EU for that matter. And there are thousands of overseas companies who have business interests here or production facilities here or include this country in their considerations for new things they're planning.

This means that probably on an hourly basis someone is making a strategic decision (on allocation of capital, assets, resources, people) which is wholly or partially driven by business confidence/certainty around the UK's political, economic or regulatory relationship with its European neighbours. So, I am not going to sit here and try to type in the names of all the people who might be considering opening up in the UK, investing more in the UK, or at least not investing less in the UK, just because you haven't heard of any.

However, as an example, Microsoft wrote a letter to more than 5000 of its UK staff, saying that EU membership was one of several key criteria which made UK one of "the most attractive places in Europe for the range of investments we have made; at key moments we have specifically chosen to invest here". For example they are starting cloud services out of UK-based data centres this year, and put their first non US R&D lab here (Cambridge) because you can get great British scientists and also EU scientists all employed by the same entity in the same place without faffing about with visas.

Last Thursday the heads of 15 major multinationals including GE, Cisco, Mars, Airbus, Hitachi, Ford Europe, IBM UK/Eire, signed a letter to the FT calling for UK to remain in the EU, claiming that, "if there is one thing we as investors do not like, it is economic uncertainty". Representatives from some of the companies (employing 170k people in the UK) met Cameron later that day, several of them made the point that they had located their European headquarters in Britain knowing they would have access to the single market. It's a massive piece of what Britain has to offer to foreign direct investors.

Now, there are some UK business that are happy to leave, and some that are not happy to leave, and some that are not bothered. But it is absolutely laughable to say that if we vote to leave it is just business as usual and nobody minds a bit of uncertainty because there's always some uncertainty.

People are already deferring investment and recruitment decisions waiting for June 23. If the answer is "we're leaving", and our politicians are going to then have to spend a couple of years trying to negotiate better trade deals than currently exist anywhere in the world - with the EU, with the 50 countries correctly covered by EU trade deals, and with countries like the US with which the EU is currently negotiating - then that will not exactly get those investment and recruitment plans accelerated favourably from a UK GDP and jobs perspective.

But sure, if you like, keep on thinking that no investor is going to build a factory in the UK on June 24th anyway so it doesn't matter.

So in short, we shoud stay because companies do not like uncertainty. That, to be honest, is the most pathetic reason for a decision. We should stay, or leave, because we think that it is in our best long term interests. And not because some American multinational does not like uncertainty.

By the way, the attraction of Cambridge is that it is one of the world's top universities, attracting some of the world's greatest minds. It won most of its Nobel prizes prior to our entry to the EU.

Sadly there are arguments to be made for and against membership, but the stay camp have adopted the apocalyptic zombie scenario, rather than focusing on the benefits. I seem to recall the Treasury or the Bank of England, I forget which, arguing that leaving the ERM would be disastrous. It was the opposite Many argued passionately for entering the Euro. Most seem to now agree that staying out was the right decision. The IMF argued that the Tory polies post crash would lead to economic chaos, the opposite was the case, as they later admitted. Economic forecasts are largely useless, apart from as a means to generate income for those who make them.

maxie014

Why is the uk so great to invest in,we dont have the euro,we are across the channel,weve got the brexit vote coming.
So why did those companies still choose to locate in the uk,not germany,belgium,france? the epicentre of the european dream.