BREXIT - Why?

uk1

bowlhead99 wrote: »

Imagine you are a business or investor from overseas deciding whether to establish or maintain production capacity or major facilities in the UK, which is going to need investment of a few (or few hundred) million.

All of a sudden the electorate decide they want to get out of the market of 500m customers and employees to which you'd have access today. And the timescale for replacing the current status quo is unknown but the final implications for your business plan in terms of tariffs /import costs and access to people and markets won't be finalised for a couple of years.

Do you blindly invest your money anyway in the hope that it all works out fine and simply write "unknown" in key parts of the business plan? Or do you stick the factory in somewhere like Poland instead where you'll be pretty certain that you have access to the markets.

If you're wondering where in Europe to build a new Nissan or something, it would be a bit of a blind leap of faith to stick another factory in the North East of England when you don't even know what trade rules, tariffs or regulations will be in place once England is no longer politically or economically part of Europe. So, while patriots will say England is great, doesn't matter if we are in or out because we'll always be awesome - most commercial decisions are driven by more than blind patriotism.

You seem to misunderstand what would be happening.

We will not be getting out of the market.

Jeff

libra10

jimjames wrote: »

What did he say?

Martin gave an interview here


http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/24/martin-lewis-eu-referendum-expert_n_9306736.html

jimjames

uk1 wrote: »

You seem to misunderstand what would be happening.

We will not be getting out of the market.

Jeff

I'm confused. Are you suggesting that leaving will mean nothing changes? How is that possible? We cannot leave and still be part of the single market unless some agreement is made. The uncertainty comes from not knowing what that agreement will be, when it will be made or what terms it will have.

BucksLady wrote: »

That depends upon whether you believe that leaving would create the chaos which so many envisage. Personally, I don't buy into the mayhem theory.

It doesn't have to be mayhem to cause massive uncertainty. Not knowing if you have the same trading rights as now would be enough to stop a lot of decisions being made if access to the single market was important part of that decision.

uk1

jimjames wrote: »

I'm confused. Are you suggesting that leaving will mean nothing changes? How is that possible? We cannot leave and still be part of the single market unless some agreement is made. The uncertainty comes from not knowing what that agreement will be, when it will be made or what terms it will have.

You posted that on the day we leave manufactuters will decide not to locate in the UK but Poland instead. For the benefit of less well informed people like me could you name a few manufacturers considering opening up in the UK that we will possibly lose? I haven't read of any.

If you genuinely believe this to be true, I'd vote to stay in if I were you.

BucksLady

jimjames wrote: »

It doesn't have to be mayhem to cause massive uncertainty. Not knowing if you have the same trading rights as now would be enough to stop a lot of decisions being made if access to the single market was important part of that decision.

I understand the issues and my opinion is that the problems put forward by the government are widely exaggerated.

typistretired

jimjames wrote: »

What did he say?

He said

"On balance of probability, it is more likely we'll have less money in our pockets if we vote to leave"

Quoted from The Agenda 18/04/2016

jimjames

uk1 wrote: »

You posted that on the day we leave manufactuters will decide not to locate in the UK but Poland instead.

I think you're confusing posts. I've not mentioned Poland at all.

atush

BucksLady wrote: »

That depends upon whether you believe that leaving would create the chaos which so many envisage. Personally, I don't buy into the mayhem theory.

It doesnt have to create chaos for it to have an effect on the economy. the markets wont like it for sure.

LHW99

Markets won't like the uncertainty beforehand, but rather like during elections, once the result is decided they will steady - whichever way it goes.

lessavyfav

I look at the people who are for Brexit and whether I align with their values.

Rupert Murdoch, Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Nick Griffin, Marine Le Pen?

No thanks.