If we vote to Remain what happens?

Conrad

Daily Telegraph - 'mass immigration is making reluctant racists of us all'


https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5449938




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9831912/I-feel-like-a-stranger-where-I-live.html'

'I feel like a stranger where I live’

'As new figures show 'white flight' from cities is rising, one Londoner writes a provocative personal piece about how immigration has drastically changed the borough where she has lived for 17 years'

bob_a_builder

Brexiteer rule 2. Immigrants from outside the EU are scientists and programmers, immigrants from within the EU are cleaners and builders.

Only 25% of EU migrants into UK would have qualified as 'skilled' had they had to apply via the normal route URL="http://ukandeu.ac.uk/would-leaving-the-eu-reduce-immigration-to-the-uk/"]LINK[/URL

gfplux

michaels wrote: »

A lot has been made of the Brexit campaign's inability to paint a picture of what will happen if we vote for Brexit.

Turning the question on its head, can those supporting remain claim 'It ill be just like it is now' or actually will we see a very different EU continue to emerge, perhaps even faster, as a result of a UK Remain vote?

1) The EU is by default expansionist
There are no incentives for those who run the EU to reduce the scope of its activities, only to increase them so from that we can have a pretty good idea of the direction of travel.


2) The single market requires tax harmonization
It is also fairly clear form the Tampon tax fiasco that the EU sees differential tax rates between member states as being incompatible with the single market so expect the ability to set corporation, income and other taxes to be centralised with no veto possible as it is part of the 'core single market'.


3) Monetary Union Is a stepping stone towards Fiscal union
And of course monetary union was enacted not with the belief that a common monetary policy could be maintained without a common fiscal authority but because as is self evident that is not the case and thus the common currency was seen by those who signed up for it as simply a stepping stone towards full fiscal integration (even if of course they did not dare tell their populations this). Those outside the Euro who think this will not impact them are in for a rude surprise, EU rules will make their economic life more and more difficult (why not mandate that EUR companies debt can not be traded outside or EUR countries to damage London for example), and when any country outside the EUR runs into a crisis (foreign indebtedness for the UK for example given our rising population induced balance of trade deficit) no doubt the price to be paid for a bailout will be to adopt the Euro.


4) A UK Remain vote will shift the dynamic towards integration
After all don't forget having rejected Brexit our negotiating position will be hugely weaker as we will no longer be able to threaten withdrawal if we get steam-rollered in negotiations.

1) After the rapid expansion helped by fudged financials there is no appetite (or electoral value) in further expansion.

2) It might need tax harmonisation but once again there is little or no appetite to do so.

3) Britain will NEVER join the Euro.

4) It will not. Although Politiciens might have short memory's even they have been unsettled by the referendum to leave in the UK and other rumblings of discontent in a number of other members.

Robisere

antrobus wrote: »

The Labour Party only came into existence in 1910, thus I believe they were of no relevance at all during the 19th century.

Idly wandering through this mish mash of arguments, when I saw that. COBBLERS! There has been a labour movement (not a Labour Party as constituted today) since the Peasant's Revolt led by Wat Tyler in the 14th Century. My grandfather was a member of the Independent labour Party from around 1894: he was born in 1876. He led strikes against the owners of Potteries throughout his working life, on such crusades as trying to get extractor fans installed in the Pot Banks, to prevent silica dust from killing workers. Silicosis is what brought about his own death.

The British working class has had leaders who have fought for tens of generations to get their representatives into power, eventually into Parliament, and their trades unionised. All of that almost given away now of course.

And you would be wrong to pin a political label upon me: I have no truck with Party politics, I vote for the person I believe will do what I consider is necessary. As for this debate on these pages, it is meaningless. Just as always, it descends into a few people producing "facts" and "figures" to help their inane arguing and posturing.

michaels

Oh dear - turns out that far from being the 'status quo', that staying in will gradually see Britain's largest export earner, financial services, hobbled by the EUR countries leading to job losses and London losing its position as the pre-eminent global centre.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36173263

Leave campaigners have said this is scaremongering and now 110 business figures have signed a letter to the Evening Standard, arguing that far from damaging the City of London, exiting the EU would allow it to consolidate its position as the world's largest international financial centre.

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

Oh dear - turns out that far from being the 'status quo', that staying in will gradually see Britain's largest export earner, financial services, hobbled by the EUR countries leading to job losses and London losing its position as the pre-eminent global centre...........................

But these people were all speaking in a personal capacity and not representing the views of any business.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

But these people were all speaking in a personal capacity and not representing the views of any business.

why is some-one views more worthy because they speak for an organisation rather than themselves?


anyway do you support the (official) view of OECD, IMF, CBI that UK should have joined the euro and is much worse off as a consequence of not joining ?

BobQ

The recent publication by Brexit favouring economists is worth a read.

https://issuu.com/efbkl/docs/economists_for_brexit_-_the_economy?e=24629146/35248609

One of the points about regulation that is made is that it is responsible for our low productivity. I am not sure why this should be the case. Does France and Germany suffer low productivity too?

The argument that we could just move to a WTO based trading regime and not bother about an EU free trade agreement is to a degree plausible. They argue that UK consumer prices would fall by 8% if we did this and a major structural change to the UK economy in which some industries grow and others decline. The claim that this is neutral on employment is not explained, surely it could mean that we have substantial skill shortages and unemployment from skill surpluses?

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

why is some-one views more worthy because they speak for an organisation rather than themselves?


anyway do you support the (official) view of OECD, IMF, CBI that UK should have joined the euro and is much worse off as a consequence of not joining ?

No.........................................

BobQ

What happens next? Presumably the reverse of the following:

He went on to echo this statement in The Sun recently, writing: “Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us

The quote is alleged to be from Patrick Minford the leading economist who is supporting Brexit.

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819