The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

mrginge

Seems a bit bizarre to me that the way to be independent from one union is to get foreign nationals of another to vote for it.

Of course they will all stick around to see out the massive job losses, tax rises and spending cuts because of their solidarity with their Scottish brothers and sisters.

Another example of Scottish non-independence I guess.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Yep. And Sturgeon therefore doesn't get to reinterpret questions which are UK-wide in nature.

If you disagreed fundamentally with the question, you would have demonstrated this by not selecting one of the options.

By choosing a valid option you accept the terms of the question.

She does if she puts in in her manifesto then gets voted in as First Minister of Scotland. The time for Scots to express any sort of protest about the right to call a second referendum if Scotland was taken out of the EU against it's will... was weeks before in the Scottish elections. Not the Brexit vote.

But there you go, she is First Minister and she did stand on a platform of a second ref if Scotland was taken out of the EU should Scots vote against it. A majority of Scots agreed with her and there's really nothing much else can be said on the matter.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're being to black and white and either or about the whole thing though.

You point out that Scotland's trade with the UK is more important than that with the EU, but fail to point out that the UK's trade with the EU is an equally important factor. How much of that is going to suffer when the UK leaves the EU ? Do you know ?

You all insist on viewing Scotland/rUK trade and presenting it in such a manner as if it will all stop overnight and only admit that it won't when pressed further. rUK exports 60+ bn to Scotland which is also a fact worth mentioning, but you never do.

At the end of the day trade will continue for an independent Scotland both with rUK and with the EU. Just as it will for rUK and the EU in some form. However until Article 50 is triggered and negotiations start, NONE of us have any idea as yet in which form trade will continue. So to argue now and state categorically that only Scotland is going to suffer trade wise in the next few years is just wrong. Scotland, rUK and the EU all are as whatever happens trade is going to be damaged somewhere. We just don't know by how much yet.

Sigh..

We're talking about Scotland and the impact of independence.

It will muddy the waters to talk about the UK's trading relations with the EU. But anyway...

IIRC the UK trade with the EU is about 44%, it has been falling consistently year on year. The majority of this 44% is outside of Scotland and will affect other areas of the British Isles more. The job of the government is to strike a deal with the EU that will mitigate these effects, for the good of the UK and the EU.

If as Daniel from Dundee suggests and there are WTO tariff barriers (laughably as it hurts his cause), then a lot of that 44% is going to be hampered and some definitely lost. But it's not going to hurt Scotland anywhere near as much when Scotland is only risking 11% of its trade on Brexit.

Now if Scotland became independent under Daniel's vision of the future iScotland would be behind WTO trade barriers with the rUK. So that's 64% of Scottish trade in deep trouble.

If you think that 44% is bad for the UK, why is 64% not bad for Scotland? Or are you going to argue that the figures might not be right again? Couldn't anyone say the same thing about the Brexit figures? Or shall we all be grown ups and accept that statistics invariably include margins of error, but they will be indicative of the broad picture.

For clarity, I've not said that it will stop overnight. I think you could find post after post where I used words like "risk". When, as you put it, pressed further, I point out to you the very same thing I pointed out in the previous sentence, that I've presented it as "risk". Sure, rUK exports to Scotland will be hampered too, so Scottish business will face increased costs on procurement from the rUK and rUK will lose some exports to Scotland I would think. This "whataboutery" doesn't constitute an argument. Address the points, rather than bleating "what about the UK!". You should be arguing that Scottish independence will present Scots with a fiscal bounty the likes of which they've never seen. Like Salmond tried to with the oil money (although that turned out to be fake). Arguing that they should vote for misery and poverty because you hate the Conservatives kind of makes you worse than the Conservatives. Disabled and needy people will lose out in iScotland compared to Scotland in the UK over the next decade because your fiscal position is unsound and there's no answer to resolve it. Hardly a socialists wet dream when you've got no money to help the people you promise to help as part of your ideology.

And no one is saying only Scotland will suffer either, but the pertinent question on this thread is about SCOTLAND and the choices before it. If you're determined to see Brexit as bad, then the question you must really ask yourself is why is it bad and which option is worse within that context, Brexit or independence? If you're going to use 80,000 job losses as a reason to oppose Brexit as the SNP do then you must at the same time acknowledge the job losses that will happen as a result of independence. You cannot take up that position and only recognise one outcome of the question because it suits you to do so.

God damn. Stop the whataboutery, address the salient points with evidence and facts, change your opinion where required based on the evidence and argue the case. No doubt I'll get someone say I don't change mine - well I've looked at the evidence over 100's of pages of this thread and it's grim economic reading for iScotland. So much so the topic on the economics forum on MSE has changed from the economics to how you hate the Conservatives.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Seems a bit bizarre to me that the way to be independent from one union is to get foreign nationals of another to vote for it.

Of course they will all stick around to see out the massive job losses, tax rises and spending cuts because of their solidarity with their Scottish brothers and sisters.

Another example of Scottish non-independence I guess.

They got the vote in the last referendum and were played like fiddles over the EU and Scotland being kicked out of it overnight if independence happened. This group of voters was the one for which the EU question is the most important. They voted No overwhelmingly as a result. However there was never any question, not a peep nor the slightest objection from the Yes side or anyone else for that matter about them having a say and rightly so.

Is only right they have the same say as last time.

Seems I was right about current polling.

14/2/17

Incidentally, Panelbase are blazing a trail with this poll - as far as I'm aware, this is the first Scottish poll from any firm to put people born in other EU countries into their own distinct category, and presumably weight them separately.

That doesn't seem to make much difference in a party political poll like this one, but it should lead to greater accuracy in future independence polls - because we know anecdotally that there has been a particularly strong swing to Yes among EU citizens. Hopefully other polling firms will now follow Panelbase's good practice.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

Most that post on this board already have their mind set and that applies to both sides. That is no excuse for name calling.

TT likes to bang on about hard "facts" about Scotland when all the Brexit hard facts were that the UK would be a basket case.

That doesn't add up either.

Lets assume you're correct, it doesn't make me incorrect about iScotland.

Can you educate me on the hard facts surrounding Brexit that point out the UK would be a basket case please?

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

She does if she puts in in her manifesto then gets voted in as First Minister of Scotland.
...

She put the wrong thing in the manifesto then.

She should have pledged to not cooperate or participate in any UK-wide referendum. They undermine her authority.

I wonder if the third who didn't bother voting are also unlikely to read manifesto details?

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Sigh..

We're talking about Scotland and the impact of independence.

It will muddy the waters to talk about the UK's trading relations with the EU. But anyway...

IIRC the UK trade with the EU is about 44%, it has been falling consistently year on year. The majority of this 44% is outside of Scotland and will affect other areas of the British Isles more. The job of the government is to strike a deal with the EU that will mitigate these effects, for the good of the UK and the EU.

If as Daniel from Aberdeen suggests and there are WTO tariff barriers (laughably as it hurts his cause), then a lot of that 44% is going to be hampered and some definitely lost. But it's not going to hurt Scotland anywhere near as much when Scotland is only risking 11% of its trade on Brexit.

It's Theresa May that's talking about leaving the EU with no deal rather than a bad deal. So Daniel is right to bring it up, plenty more will be should it happen.

Now if Scotland became independent under Daniel's vision of the future iScotland would be behind WTO trade barriers with the rUK. So that's 64% of Scottish trade in deep trouble.

If you think that 44% is bad for the UK, why is 64% not bad for Scotland? Or are you going to argue that the figures might not be right again? Couldn't anyone say the same thing about the Brexit figures? Or shall we all be grown ups and accept that statistics invariably include margins of error, but they will be indicative of the broad picture.

Scotland still has possible EFTA/EEA and EU options and could potentially end up having to go with the former if trade ( ie rUK get a really bad deal or none at all ) in order to preserve as much trade with both the EU and rUK as possible. It needn't be one or the other. I suspect Sturgeon will wait and see which way negotiations are going before presenting what she and the SNP feel is the best course of action for Scotland's future trade options. Other pro indy groups will of course have differing opinions on the matter.

For clarity, I've not said that it will stop overnight. I think you could find post after post where I used words like "risk". When, as you put it, pressed further, I point out to you the very same thing I pointed out in the previous sentence, that I've presented it as "risk". Sure, rUK exports to Scotland will be hampered too, so Scottish business will face increased costs on procurement from the rUK and rUK will lose some exports to Scotland I would think. This "whataboutery" doesn't constitute an argument. Address the points, rather than bleating "what about the UK!". You should be arguing that Scottish independence will present Scots with a fiscal bounty the likes of which they've never seen. Like Salmond tried to with the oil money (although that turned out to be fake). Arguing that they should vote for misery and poverty because you hate the Conservatives kind of makes you worse than the Conservatives. Disabled and needy people will lose out in iScotland compared to Scotland in the UK over the next decade because your fiscal position is unsound and there's no answer to resolve it. Hardly a socialists wet dream when you've got no money to help the people you promise to help as part of your ideology.

It's not whatabouttery to point out that whatever deal the UK leaves the EU with in two years time will have a profound effect on Scotland whatever that deal, or no deal ends up being.

Sturgeon is trying to mange the risk and wants BOTH markets. She'll accept whatever is likely to cause the least initial damage and shock to the Scottish economy as it is. Staying within the UK, outwith the Single Market is a real risk to the Scottish economy too.

And no one is saying only Scotland will suffer either, but the pertinent question on this thread is about SCOTLAND and the choices before it. If you're determined to see Brexit as bad, then the question you must really ask yourself is why is it bad and which option is worse within that context, Brexit or independence? If you're going to use 80,000 job losses as a reason to oppose Brexit as the SNP do then you must at the same time acknowledge the job losses that will happen as a result of independence. You cannot take up that position and only recognise one outcome of the question because it suits you to do so.

God damn. Stop the whataboutery, address the salient points with evidence and facts, change your opinion where required based on the evidence and argue the case. No doubt I'll get someone say I don't change mine - well I've looked at the evidence over 100's of pages of this thread and it's grim economic reading for iScotland. So much so the topic on the economics forum on MSE has changed from the economics to how you hate the Conservatives.

No, just like you don't accept that it's not ok to call people idiots, then I don't accept that Scotland at the present time can be discussed without discussing the UK and the consequences ( both political and economic ) which stem from Scotland's current status within the UK.

There has been a Scottish thread in this particular area of the forum for as long as I've been here. I didn't start any of them apart from this one and I didn't choose it's placement within this forum. But it does seem sensible however to keep threads on particular niche interests ( Scottish politics/economics ) in one place. So that those will little interest can scroll past without having to endure 20 or 30 different threads discussing the same issues in other areas of the forum.

ps where's Clapton gone ? Hope he's ok ???

Moto2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's not abuse.

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/idiot



If you refuse to acknowledge the truth and evidence, and you consign your country to economic ruin, it's not abuse it's merely an observation.

You yourself have demonstrated on many occasions in this thread and now others that you have little understanding of Barnett consequentials. I've tried to put the information in front of you many times as best I can and you persist in believing that Scotland is a net tax payer to the UK Treasury and due to projects like HS2 Scotland loses out. The truth, and the evidence shows that's not the case and that Scotland is a fiscal beneficiary of the UK and projects like HS2. Yet you refuse to change your opinion, is that the behaviour of an idiot?

It isn't always about the bottom line though.
I've just (18 months ago) taken a job on half the salary I was on, despite offers of even more because I thought I'd be happier.
Every sum I did told me it was a poor decision but you know what?
It's the best thing I've ever done with work, yes, we're poorer now and have to make savings but we're much happier.
If the Scots want indy on the strength of gut feeling, good luck to them, it just a pity for them that the woeful SNP are driving it.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They got the vote in the last referendum and were played like fiddles over the EU and Scotland being kicked out of it overnight if independence happened. This group of voters was the one for which the EU question is the most important. They voted No overwhelmingly as a result. However there was never any question, not a peep nor the slightest objection from the Yes side or anyone else for that matter about them having a say and rightly so.

Is only right they have the same say as last time.

Seems I was right about current polling.

14/2/17

Yes I know.
Be a serious injustice to not let them vote second time around.

They will, as you suggest, vote for independence in their droves now. Purely based on sticking it to the tories and with absolutely no need to worry about the consequences.

A truly great day in Scottish history.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Yes I know.
Be a serious injustice to not let them vote second time around.

They will, as you suggest, vote for independence in their droves now. Purely based on sticking it to the tories and with absolutely no need to worry about the consequences.

A truly great day in Scottish history.

Them's the breaks I suppose.