The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

kabayiri

elantan wrote: »

Nope ... but ask yourself this ... if you were a staunch yes or no voter and another indy ref came up would u make sure you voted ?
...

What happens if you are pro EU but anti Scottish independence, or the other way around?

It strikes me that having another referendum which bundles in the EU issue (ie pre A50 completion) just complicates the value judgement everyone will have to make.

If someone from a mythical EU state asked my advice on when to call a referendum, I would tell them to hold fire....who knows how this post-Brexit-vote, post-Trump-election world is going to pan out?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

What happens if you are pro EU but anti Scottish independence, or the other way around?

Then you have to choose.

If Theresa May is smart she'll angle for retaining full single market membership for either the whole of the UK or Scotland by exception, as that's the only way to ensure it takes the wind out of the sails of indyref2.

Otherwise she'll find herself fighting a war on two fronts at the same time - Brexit and Scottish Indyref 2 - with nowhere near enough resources or political capital to win both.

elantan

Oh I know Kabayiri, that's another part of the puzzle, I know strong indy supporters that want out of the EU and they are not sure what way they would vote in another indy ref and then we have Hamish who is a strong unionist but is considering voting yes in the next indy ref if we can't get an EU deal that meets his needs
There are so many unknowns just now which is just gonna make it more exciting

I personally don't like the idea if having an indy ref because of the EU I would have liked to have seen the two things as separate ... but we don't live in that world now ... we live in the world we live in so people will need to decide for themselves, when the time is right

I don't see another indy ref until approx September 18 ( year 18 not the date ) as I think we need at least 18 months after article 50 is triggered to have any idea of where we are headed in/out the EU ... but I think it would need to be before we leave the EU as well

We will see as it all unfolds ... which it will do

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Then you have to choose.

If Theresa May is smart she'll angle for retaining full single market membership for either the whole of the UK or Scotland by exception, as that's the only way to ensure it takes the wind out of the sails of indyref2.

Otherwise she'll find herself fighting a war on two fronts at the same time - Brexit and Scottish Indyref 2 - with nowhere near enough resources or political capital to win both.

unlikely that Theresa will have to fight an indy referendum: she will refuse to hold one until after brexit

if Nicola holds her own advisory one then she takes a huge risk of losing it but no real rewards for winning:

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Otherwise she'll find herself fighting a war on two fronts at the same time - Brexit and Scottish Indyref 2 - with nowhere near enough resources or political capital to win both.

Only in your mind.

Independence is an idea on life support. Everyone thought there was an adrenaline shot when the machiavellian manoeuvring the SNP did in their manifesto and campaigning came up trumps, they rolled the dice and their numbers came up, giving them an excuse for another referendum. They thought support for independence would grow after the EU vote, they were wrong, I think it temporarily bounced into the mid 50%'s and has since fallen away.

By lumping the EU in with the deal they have written off the support of anyone who was against the EU, and there will be pro-UK bias people in the pro-EU support too. You personally will be a small minority of people who believe the EU to be economically more important to Scotland than the UK. Absolute madness if you look at the evidence.

I've said it before, they have made the question harder to justify than it was in 2014. But you're all on here harping about it being the 2nd coming, it's going to end in failure with egg on faces.

I find it disturbing that there are so many deluded individuals on this thread. Objective, evidence based, rational thinking just isn't in fashion I guess.

elantan

Not only in his mind


For many people Indy is more essential now than it was in 2014 ... your gonna have to accept that ... even if you don't like it

TrickyTree83

elantan wrote: »

Not only in his mind


For many people Indy is more essential now than it was in 2014 ... your gonna have to accept that ... even if you don't like it

I doesn't matter if it is that way for many people if it's not the majority in a democracy. And there is nothing to indicate that is the case.

You're going to have to accept that, even if you don't like it.

elantan

I dare say it isn't the majority just now ... but that will change I reckon ... Brexit and the treatment of Scotland by WM will see to that ... I dare say Ultimately we will have the people of England and Wales to thank for our independence ... which is not a bad thing

Ultimately it's people like yourself Tricky that may have got my country it's independence ... I certainly will be thankful if you have ...

elantan

http://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/britains-eu-envoy-quits-unexpectedly-ahead-of/

Not gonna be a smooth sailing out the EU by the looks of it

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Sounds very much like you believe the SNP's tactics of smearing the Conservatives is a greater argument than that for independence and EU membership combined.

Telling...

Not telling at all. All political parties do it to each other. Unless you're a special snowflake who thinks politics is conducted using angel dust and wishes..

However, Scots voters have, even when the rest of the UK has consistently voted differently ( for example during the Thatcher years ) been very amenable to voting patterns in order to 'keep the Tories out'. And politically, during an indy ref scenario it's the one huge factor that Labour, and the entirety of Scottish media will find very difficult to counter in any way.