The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Tromking

The subject of an early snap GE being mooted again. Any Scottish resident willing to predict the ramifications for the SNP as regards seats if the election is fought as it would be on a Brexit/independence battleground.
With the Scots propensity to vote tactically I predict a nett 15-20 seat loss for the SNP.

beecher2

Tromking wrote: »

The subject of an early snap GE being mooted again. Any Scottish resident willing to predict the ramifications for the SNP as regards seats if the election is fought as it would be on a Brexit/independence battleground.
With the Scots propensity to vote tactically I predict a nett 15-20 seat loss for the SNP.

Latest poll on Westminster voting preferences has SNP on 49%. I don't think the figures stack up for tactical voting to be a success - it only worked in Edinburgh South last time, and much of that was probably to do with Ian Murray's constituency work. There was lots of work going on producing tactical wheels and all sorts, and it was a bit of a disaster
http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/wheeloflolz.jpg

Glasgow East is obviously one which would be worth looking at, but the SNP MPs I've had contact with through home and work seem to be to be doing more to earn votes than their predecessors did (not saying mucht there...)

Electoral Calculus is sticking with 56
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

wotsthat

It's hard to see the SNP being overly excited about a GE just 18 months after they won a record number of seats.

beecher2

wotsthat wrote: »

It's hard to see the SNP being overly excited about a GE just 18 months after they won a record number of seats.

Or the Scottish electorate as we've voted in 2 elections and 2 referendum in 2 years. We've got local elections next year too so I think turnout would be fairly low. Labour wouldn't be too keen either.

elantan

Aye were a bit voted out for a while ... hope May behaves herself so that we can have a wee rest for a bit

zagubov

Tromking wrote: »

The subject of an early snap GE being mooted again. Any Scottish resident willing to predict the ramifications for the SNP as regards seats if the election is fought as it would be on a Brexit/independence battleground.
With the Scots propensity to vote tactically I predict a nett 15-20 seat loss for the SNP.

It's the only Scottish party that could lose 15-20 seats there and still have a thumping majority any other party would give their eye teeth for. The others would love to have enough seats so that they could afford to lose even one.

Maggie Thatcher once said (back when Scotland had 72 Westminster seats) that the moment the 37th SNP was elected, the government had the moral duty to open independence negotiations with them.

Tromking

zagubov wrote: »

It's the only Scottish party that could lose 15-20 seats there and still have a thumping majority any other party would give their eye teeth for. The others would love to have enough seats so that they could afford to lose even one.

Maggie Thatcher once said (back when Scotland had 72 Westminster seats) that the moment the 37th SNP was elected, the government had the moral duty to open independence negotiations with them.

So the SNP would lose seats in your view?
Interesting conundrum for Sturgeon and the SNP, carry out her avowed threat to block, delay and generally try and thwart Brexit and she runs the risk of a GE where she may lose MP`s on a campaign that would be seen as an unofficial vote on independence.

elantan

Just catching up with today's news ... ohhh this Brexit is sure gonna be fun to watch ... Interesting times ahead people ... get yersels comfy it's gonna be twisty and turny

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

The subject of an early snap GE being mooted again. Any Scottish resident willing to predict the ramifications for the SNP as regards seats if the election is fought as it would be on a Brexit/independence battleground.
With the Scots propensity to vote tactically I predict a nett 15-20 seat loss for the SNP.

There are no 'snap' elections anymore. Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 would need to be repealed both in the HOC and Lords. Otherwise the Conservative Govt would need to bring forward a no confidence vote in itself. And 2/3rds of parliament vote for it.

Under the act, an early general election can only occur if the Commons votes for it by a majority of two to one. Introducing the bill on 22 July 2010, Nick Clegg, Farron’s predecessor as Lib Dem leader, grandly declared that it would remove a Prime Minister’s right to call an election ‘for pure political gain’ and that henceforth elections would cease to be the ‘plaything of governments’.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/fixed-term-parliaments-act-come-back-haunt-lib-dems/

Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:[2]

• If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
• If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".

In either of these two cases, the Monarch (on the recommendation of the prime minister) appoints the date of the new election by proclamation. Parliament is then dissolved 25 working days before that date.

So loads more faffing about even before a GE could even be called and nothing 'snap' about it. Everyone seems to have forgotten about this FTPA thing insisted upon by the Lib Dems, so the Conservative's couldn't get rid of them if the polls started turning the Tories way between 2010-2015.

Remember this the next time you're getting carried away about the SNP losing loads of seats in a snap election.

skintmacflint

Moby wrote: »

To me your position is contradictory. You say you voted remain but are fine with Brexit and would vote Brexit given another chance. I think thats confused

You're fully entitled to ur opinion. I just don't agree with it. No confusion here. I considered Independence, particularly when initially taken in by SNP spinning the lie this was our chance to start from scratch and build a fair country.

A tactic they won't be using next time round as everyone now knows it will be the EU dictating the rules for an iScotland. By the time I voted No I was pretty definite on it. Since then the lowbrow activities of SNP have hardened my opinion. My Remain vote was less decisive, More status quo than anything else. Since then and it could be age related, the ill wishes of some EU higher echelons towards the UK, (which went to war on behalf of these countries), the changes happening across the Europe, the definite moves toward further and final integrations and the poor reaction of many of my fellow remainers again to a democratic has flipped my opinion. .

You clearly dont like the SNP. I dont have dog in the fight being Welsh but their support is clearly massive whether you like it or not and whatever you think of their White Paper.

Neither would you, if you had to watch and listen to them pretend they represent all of Scotland instead of less than half of it. Watch Scotland reduced to a laughing stock in Westminster and the world stage, by their politicians. Taken time to make an important decision in referendum, only to see the decision completely ignored the next day. Listen to their divisive non stop hypocritical virtue signalling.

My point was that what was a hard sell in 2014 has been made instantly easier by Brexit. I repeat.... the SNP got the result they wanted on June 23rd and they'll bide their time for another referendum and they'll make sure the result is different this time.

Don't agree. Will be harder for them, for all the reasons outline on this thread. And people are at saturation point with politics these days.

We are clearly moving towards economic hard times. The SNP will be all over that and the reasons for it.

At the moment all the public service cuts in Scotland are directly as a result of SNP decisions not Westminster. We have no idea how hard things will be. I'm sure we'll manage.

The Brexiteers who are surely Unionists as well have ensured the Union will die Im afraid. You cant logically believe in the Union and be a Brexiteer.

You certainly can. The U.K. has operated as a successful Union for over 300 years. We know and live what we have. The EU started as a trade deal, has been around 40 odd years, and all this political integration todate has been carried out under the radar. We have no idea how it will pan out with the acceleration planned. And that integration is necessary to stop it imploding into one big almighty mess. Big difference.
!

At least that's how I view it. And like you I'm also entitled to my opinion. At least for now, until SNP or some other virtue signalling parties finally succeed in prohibiting free speech and thought with more regulations which 'they ' deem necessary for our own good.