The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Enterprise_1701C

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes it certainly made me laugh. But you didn't answer the question. If Scotland voted to leave the UK.. and the rUK is leaving the EU. Why wouldn't the EU want to hold talks with Scotland ?

Any advance on flippancy and any chance of a coherent answer from you ? Even if it's hypothetical. I'm expected to detail macro/micro economic policy and currency options A,B,C and D for an independent Scotland for the short and medium term on a referendum that hasn't been called yet, or even won just about daily here from some posters.

Hypothetically if Scotland votes to leave the UK, and Article 50 has been invoked. Scotland no longer part of talks ( independence ). Would the EU want to talk to Scotland in that case ? How could Scotland 'leave' the EU if it's no longer part of Article 50 ?

Any insight from you would be good. Hypothetically speaking.

Until Scotland actually votes for independence they are still part of the UK and therefore the EU could not talk to them under their own rules, and even if Scotland voted for independence it would take considerable time to untangle them from the UK, they would have to sort out their currency and whatever else goes with breaking away from the UK, they would need to sort out the border, passports etc etc. So basically I find it very unlikely that Scotland would actually BE independent before the UK actually leaves the EU.

mollycat

As ever on this thread, legitimate points, concerns requiring proper discussion and a narrative that is tending towards logic are quickly shuffled of the current page(s) so they are less likely to be seen by new/neutral posters, by a torrent of posting.

I counted 6 consecutive,unanswered posts of a fulsome nature from the same poster, all in the space of less than an hour, (bulked out with quotes) which have unfortunately relegated excellent points made by both Tricky Tree and .string. to lesser pages.

Of course, people will reserve the right to post when and as often as they choose, (as I do), but lets be absolutely clear about what we are seeing here.

I suppose a management of what people read is a legitimate part of propaganda; so we shouldn't be surprised.

Tricky Tree in particular has quite (un)subtly had his motives for posting here questioned; other posters have been accused of being the same person, (on the basis that someone used to moderate a forum !!!!!!) , and others have been accused of all manner of negative attributes, (boring, limited understanding of politics), for daring to present their point of view.

I think that's the difficulty with starting a thread like this with a clear agenda; it's NOT possible to control exactly what you get, no matter how orchestrated the posting is, and I think at present the pro-indy posters are getting more than they bargained for in terms of a dismantling of their "politics".

Must be driving some people mad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

beecher2 wrote: »

Hamish can I ask if you know others who feel the same way as you, that is to say were no voters but would now vote yes?.

I do indeed know some... And a lot more who have moved to 'Don't Know' from a fairly firm No last time.

And the polls show the same thing.

Following the Brexit vote - around 12% of No voters have swung to Yes, however around 12% of Yes voters have also swung to No (fishermen etc) - which is why the polls have barely moved.

kabayiri wrote: »

Hamish is a dubious SNP supporter, in that he does sometimes answer questions.

Just to be clear - I am not and will never be an "SNP supporter" - in that I'd rather chew my own arm off than use it to vote for the SNP.

He believes the Euro is the end goal currency.

Indeed it is.

He believes the SNP should push for a referendum before A50.

Actually immediately after - however the UK govt can take the wind out of those sails at any time by simply agreeing to join the EEA/EFTA as full single market members.

At least he recognises the pragmatic issues surrounding timing.

Has to be sooner rather than later if an iScotland is to be classed as the residual state for EU membership.

Only those committed to the Union should be involved in negotiations about the future relationship between the Union and the EU.

That's entirely up to you lot.

A 2nd IndyRef is completely redundant if Westminster agrees to either stay in the single market or find an exception for Scotland to do so - if they do that then Sturgeon will lose the referendum vote by a large margin - Theresa May can stop the threat from Indyref2 at any time - or Westminster can try to tell Scotland what to do and exclude their concerns and only watch Indy support grow.

As I said - entirely up to you....

Enterprise_1701C

So what you are saying Hamish is that you want us to ignore the majority of the population of the UK (and if Scotland had not had a vote that majority would have been bigger) and allow the toddler throwing the toys out of the pram to have the final say?

If we manage to remain within the single market then it will be because May managed to negotiate it for the whole of the UK, not to stop Scotland's tantrum. We will not stay in the single market and compromise the other ideals we voted for.

The single market is not the be all and end all, we have countries queuing up to do trade deals with us, and Scotland has far more trade with the rest of the UK than with the EU, so as far as I can see Sturgeon is longing to cut her nose off to spite her face.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A 2nd IndyRef is completely redundant if Westminster agrees to either stay in the single market or find an exception for Scotland to do so - if they do that then Sturgeon will lose the referendum vote by a large margin - Theresa May can stop the threat from Indyref2 at any time - or Westminster can try to tell Scotland what to do and exclude their concerns and only watch Indy support grow.

As I said - entirely up to you....

I guess it will certainly give May a lot to ponder on.

Nicola Sturgeon is expected to publish plans within the next few weeks for Scotland to become the official successor state to the UK and take its place within the European Union.The blueprint will feature plans for Scotland to forge a soft Brexit on its own within the UK. But it is also expected to include plans for Scotland to remain part of the EU if a separate Scottish Brexit deal cannot be negotiated, not just as an independent nation but as the UK’s “successor state”.


A Scottish government spokesman refused to say whether the plans would call for an independent Scotland to inherit the UK’s position within the EU.
A source inside the SNP administration said: “We will bring forward specific proposals in the coming weeks to protect Scotland’s place in Europe and in the single market.”


He added: “In terms of how Europe looks at the situation, there is clearly a huge amount of goodwill towards Scotland from our friends and neighbours, and there are a number of senior and influential people across the continent who have made clear they are keen on keeping Scotland in Europe”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/sturgeon-could-ask-for-scotland-to-take-uks-eu-membership-6kkhf66dm


It does look like Sturgeon has been given a bit of encouragement from 'somewhere' in terms of this successor state status story that's currently doing the rounds. Either that or she's truly chancing her arm if she actually goes ahead and publishes plans based on it in the next few weeks. She's normally very cautious, certainly compared to Salmond. Time will tell.

Shakethedisease

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Until Scotland actually votes for independence they are still part of the UK and therefore the EU could not talk to them under their own rules, and even if Scotland voted for independence it would take considerable time to untangle them from the UK, they would have to sort out their currency and whatever else goes with breaking away from the UK, they would need to sort out the border, passports etc etc. So basically I find it very unlikely that Scotland would actually BE independent before the UK actually leaves the EU.

Yes, I think people are already anticipating this.

Dr Kirsty Hughes has been told Scotland could be placed in a “transitional holding pen” after Article 50 TEU is triggered which could could prevent the country having to re-apply for membership in the event it becomes independent.

Dr Hughes, a former political adviser to the European Commission and an associate fellow at think tank Friends of Europe said it would be “logical” to call a referendum by next Summer so the result is within the UK’s two-year exit period from the EU.

Speaking to Holyrood’s Europe Committee, she said: “I talk to people in Brussels, off the record, who are talking about Scotland being in some sort of transitional holding pen. It wouldn’t have a seat in the Council of Ministers until ratification of the treaties, but it wouldn’t have to go through an absurd out and then in process.”

http://www.scottishlegal.com/2016/07/01/brussels-insiders-reveal-plans-to-preserve-scotlands-eu-membership-in-event-of-independence/

*bolding not mine.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...
A 2nd IndyRef is completely redundant if Westminster agrees to either stay in the single market or find an exception for Scotland to do so - if they do that then Sturgeon will lose the referendum vote by a large margin - Theresa May can stop the threat from Indyref2 at any time - or Westminster can try to tell Scotland what to do and exclude their concerns and only watch Indy support grow.

As I said - entirely up to you....

Tail wagging the dog then !

Well, if you believe in opportunistic; politically motivated timing; you can also see why it might exist within the Tory party.

There will be people inside the party looking at any sign of weakness from PM May, particularly towards a Separatist party.

She is going to string Sturgeon along, saying the 'right sort of things in public' whilst following her own tactical plan with the EU.

It's not like she will lose many political seats in Scotland. The SNP have effectively castrated the main opponent to the Tory party down here.

Somewhat ironic really

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...
Just to be clear - I am not and will never be an "SNP supporter" - in that I'd rather chew my own arm off than use it to vote for the SNP.
...

Okay, so we can rule out SNP supporter.

That leaves a couple of choices left.

"Splitter", in the grand Pythonesque tradition.

"Mercenary", classic Western [STRIKE]gun[/STRIKE] vote for hire.

You were getting Shakey and Elantan so excited too.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

Tail wagging the dog then !

Or as some of us prefer to call it - local democracy in action.;)

Well, if you believe in opportunistic; politically motivated timing; you can also see why it might exist within the Tory party.

I believe in fighting fire with fire.

If that's the game Westminster want to play I've got no issues with Scotgov playing the same game right back...

Conrad

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

If we manage to remain within the single market then it will be because May managed to negotiate it for the whole of the UK, not to stop Scotland's tantrum. We will not stay in the single market and compromise the other ideals we voted for.

The single market is not the be all and end all, we have countries queuing up to do trade deals with us,

We will almost certainly leave the SM, but like other successful trading nations, trade perfectly happy with it, although we will enjoy a hybrid UK deal of course as it would harm EU citizens in core exporting nations if they were to hamper their own trade.


Nissan knows trade will never be hampered, end of.