The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It doesn't.

An unemployed person has the same number of votes as your journalist, a millionaire, an SNP zealot, or an SNP MP.

One.

One person has written an article saying that he hates his perception of what is happening in the UK. That will not convince people to vote for independence, as evident from the polls.

I know they do but none of the people you listed live here.

I'm not posting to convince anyone to vote for independence, and KF certainly won't be writing from that position. He's a commentator and is describing his perception of what is going on in Scotland. You may disagree but he's basing it on what he sees happening around him, in real life. Maybe you should come up for a weekend yourself? I don't think you understand how angry some people are about the EU result.

wotsthat

elantan wrote: »

How is me leaving the country screwing the rest of them up? do you think I am that amazing? Yes I am flattered that you do ,, but come on... lets be realistic here ... i'm just a person doing the best they can for their country and themself I will have sacrificed a lot for my country by the time we get indy but I am ok with it as I know it will help the future generations of my countrymen and women. A sacrifice i deem worth paying. Unlike a lot of the selfish people that would keep us begging from WM for what should rightfully be ours, and asking permission for things we shouldnt need to ...

now thats what i call selfish

You're like a modern day Joan of Arc.

When you were English were you a nationalist?

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

I know they do but none of the people you listed live here.

I'm not posting to convince anyone to vote for independence, and KF certainly won't be writing from that position. He's a commentator and is describing his perception of what is going on in Scotland. You may disagree but he's basing it on what he sees happening around him, in real life. Maybe you should come up for a weekend yourself?

If it was the case it would be reflected in the statistics.

We have exactly the same journalistic writing down here with regards to Brexit. It's all just opinions based on their social groups, their ideologies, their beliefs. There appears to be very few these days who are based solely on facts, investigation and plodding the unbeaten track.

Journalistic commentary is as relevant as The Last Username's, mollycat's, islandannie's and any other Scot who lives in Scotland who doesn't agree with what he says or the independence movement. Isn't it? If they were writing that column would their opinion be representative of the majority?

beecher2

I think it is important to read commentators' views of what's going on. I don't think you know who KF is and how big a contrast this article is. As KF says, it isn't all about facts, for many people it is about sentiment. Not everyone thinks the same way and I thought reading this would help you understand that there's more to this debate than GERS.

mollycat

beecher2 wrote: »

I think it is important to read commentators' views of what's going on. I don't think you know who KF is and how big a contrast this article is. As KF says, it isn't all about facts, for many people it is about sentiment. Not everyone thinks the same way and I thought reading this would help you understand that there's more to this debate than GERS.

With respect, sentiment isn't going to put food on peolpe's tables 10 or 20 years down the line.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

I think it is important to read commentators' views of what's going on. I don't think you know who KF is and how big a contrast this article is. As KF says, it isn't all about facts, for many people it is about sentiment. Not everyone thinks the same way and I thought reading this would help you understand that there's more to this debate than GERS.

No it won't because opinions are like ar*eholes, everyone's got one.

Facts don't care about feelings or opinions.

For example, everyone I talk to on these forums who knows I voted to leave generally appears to have the opinion of me that I'd be swimmingly happy with a hard brexit because I wanted to stop those dirty migrants coming here, taking our jobs, etc...etc... Except the facts don't support that narrative. They don't like the facts of why I voted to leave, it doesn't play into their hands of being able to brand me a racist/xenophobe, little Englander, etc...

So in the debate around Scottish independence, I also want to focus on the facts. Empirical evidence of why you should or should not vote for independence. What does the empirical evidence suggest you should do? What does it suggest would happen if you did vote for independence? Is that a sensible option for you, your family, your children's family and their countrymen and women?

For me it's quite clear that the economic argument for remaining in the union is lightyears ahead of the economic argument for independence within the EU. You will no doubt have seen the myriad of reasons splattered across pages of this thread and its predecessors. The statistical evidence for Scotland remaining in the union based on Scotland's economy is a clear and simple choice. So then you (as an actual voter) need to be able to rationalise taking the fiscal punishment that will come with independence for what appears to be a whimsical dreamy eyed vision of an "independent" Scotland subservient to the EU. Because that is what is on offer right now.

Does your discomfort in being "ruled" by Westminster trump the suffering you will induce economically?

Which is an argument I cannot take on board, I cannot understand why as an Englishman I get Scottish votes on English laws, I have no say on Scottish only matters, yet you say you're ruled by Westminster, and it's so bad, you do so badly right now, that you would be willing to take fiscal punishment the likes of which are only comparable to Greece in recent memory in order to free yourself from this uncomfortable opinion.

Greek austerity caused this:



http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/761676/40000-protest-pension-reform-as-general-strike-grips-greece

What will Scottish austerity cause?

And on the journalistic note, what will journalists living in Scotland say of independence once the financial reality hits home? They will of course blame the government.

Will their pro-independence platitudes be remembered with a misty eyed fondness or will they themselves be targets of anger and vilification when thousands of people protest on the street at having their benefits cut, hospitals shut, police, fire and ambulance services eroded to a former shadow of themselves.

I understand this must be coming across as project fear. I genuinely wanted elantan and others to go away, look at it and come to the same conclusion on their own. That whilst they may want to be independent, now is not the right time to even try to make it happen. In pushing it so early, they will go off half-cocked and you will either lose a 2nd referendum and consign the movement to the rubbish bin of history for a generation or two, or you will win and endure this fiscal punishment. Along with riots, civil unrest, widespread poverty and service degradation. Perhaps even losing the NHS.

Within the EU - how well equipped will Scotland be to sort its post-independence problems out? If Scotland joins the Euro, definitely Greece v2.0.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So in the debate around Scottish independence, I also want to focus on the facts. Empirical evidence of why you should or should not vote for independence. What does the empirical evidence suggest you should do? What does it suggest would happen if you did vote for independence? Is that a sensible option for you, your family, your children's family and their countrymen and women?
.

My point is that not everyone thinks the same way. Empirical evidence is no good when you're imaging the future and many people do vote in the way KF describes. I'm not trying to convince you to think this way, just trying to explain that people aren't robots and that there are many strands to making a decision about how to vote.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

My point is that not everyone thinks the same way. Empirical evidence is no good when you're imaging the future and many people do vote in the way KF describes. I'm not trying to convince you to think this way, just trying to explain that people aren't robots and that there are many strands to making a decision about how to vote.

I understand that.

But I'm saying that consideration of the consequences must be part of that decision making process.

It's no use seceding from the UK because of an uncomfortable feeling regarding Westminster if people will then suffer financially and protest on the streets when their pensions are raided.

It's been suggested by David Comerford of University of Stirling and Jose V Rodriguez Mora of University of Edinburgh that independence will cost Scotland 5.5% of it's GDP just because you're throwing away the Union.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/kqbxjz3jhbegeye/CvsR.pdf

That is on top of a deficit of ~10% at your current GDP levels. I'm sure you're aware that as GDP decreases and the deficit stays the same or increases that the ~10% figure will rise. If you're in control of your own currency, that means massive de-valuation as a countermeasure. If you're not in control of your currency, that's going to present massive problems. Tax rises and spending cuts may not be enough if they're not savage and quick enough to arrest the problem. It would only take 5 years at 20% deficit to have a pile of debt at 100% of GDP starting from a clean slate of 0 debt only 5 years previous.

This is why I get so angry when certain posters on here are flippant about the economic consequences for Scotland. They really are quite real.

elantan

beecher2 wrote: »

I have an off topic question - why do some Yoons call Nicola Sturgeon Elsie?

do they ? Ive never heard of that one, kranky, nippy etc aye but no Elsie ... I know I should be doing my research paper but think my brain is still exhausted after my run of mental night shifts and i cant seem to concentrate today... maybe I should go make soup or something

TrickyTree83

Here's some more information about the "border effect".

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/236579/scotland_analysis_macroeconomic_and_fiscal_performance.pdf#page=52

The empirical evidence on economics points to the Union being good for Scotland. So why do you have this narrative that it's bad for Scotland?

This is where I'm making the point that you only feel the way you do because of the SNP, the pro-independence movement and the bile they spew about the English and about Westminster. It's clouding judgement and people are possibly making misinformed decisions if they have not researched and considered the economic consequences for themselves instead of reading a meme about GERS being wrong, Whiskey Export Duty paying everything, Scotland paying towards large projects in England that they don't benefit from and many other pro-independence supported myths!

By not questioning these myths, or researching these issues yourself you're falling into the same trap that UKIP followers fall into and those who believed in Judensau in Germany. Misinformation is a great weapon in political power.