The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Thrugelmir

zagubov wrote: »

C'mon even I can remember that Spain's lead by Rajoy, who's three times refused to say he'll object to Scotland joining.

Doesn't even garner the support of the Spanish parliament. 2 votes of no confidence.

Actually I was thinking of Catalonia's independence referendum scheduled for September 2017.

zagubov

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Doesn't even garner the support of the Spanish parliament. 2 votes of no confidence.

Actually I was thinking of Catalonia's independence referendum scheduled for September 2017.

Long over before any Scottish indyref then.;)

.string.

I thought I'd chip in with the rather obvious remark (so sorry for that) that in SNP eyes, the need for their increasingly ridiculous arguments, whereby Scotland would be able to able to "remain" in the EU, being true is of no significance compared with whether they can persuade enough Scottish Voters that is true. All the SNP discussion here is just to practice the argument rather than actually believing it. No-one can surely be that daft.

It's a bit like the oil thing which was touted as being the financial pot at the end of the rainbow long after it was crystal clear that it was not. A means to an end, no more.

I would be interested to know what the SNP Plan B would be for Scotland if they find their Natland paradise separated from both the EU and the UK. Presumably all the previous arguments about the ability of the SNP Natland to do very well thank you with its new magic levers etc.; The trouble now for them is that all those arguments would apply for a Brexited UK which would have the additional advantages of much larger resources and having by then a set of agreed trade relations with the EU; so they do not sit comfortably with rubbishing Brexit.

Thrugelmir

zagubov wrote: »

Long over before any Scottish indyref then.;)

Agreed. :cool2:

Which means that SNP leadership is walking a fine line. The electorate is unforgiving if promises are broken. Many variables and outcomes. Assuming that it's pro and eU membership is desired. Then will set a precursor for Scotland. Though kicks the timeline well into the long grass.

Shakethedisease

The_Last_Username wrote: »

Oh boy, that is some wishful thinking with I note lots of "if's" - so here's an alternative train of thought which is much more likely than the above:

I said Hard Brexit = Scottish referendum. No buts about it.

The "end game of the union" as it has been so succinctly put is by no means the certainty some imagine, as has been repeatedly explained in this very thread.
Just to refresh memories, explain please how a Scottish budget would work - and what currency would be used?

Scottish pound pegged to sterling for a short time most likely. Unless it crashes through the floor much more.

Does anyone really think that a majority of us canny Scots are really going to want to live with the drastic cuts which would by necessity result from independence?

Cuts either way with Brexit. This way we avoid Tory governments at the same time.. which is politically very tempting for Scots who vote SNP/Labour or Green. The Conservatives are on 22%.

As for this only going one way politically, that may be correct - though it will most likely NOT be heading in the direction stated above.

The evidence is straight in front of your face. Scottish Labour is in it's death throes, with some in UK Labour openly talking about discounting them altogether in future in order to ally with the SNP.

Not unless the SNP drastically change tack. Their lack of real planning is already far too evident for many Scots.
We have seen the collapse of Labour - are we about to see similar with the SNP?

It took 50 years for Labour to decline. They dominated for decades. Incidentally, espousing the same sorts of polices the SNP do now. Labour changed a lot during the Blair/Brown years. The Scottish voting public didn't, and simply changed to another party offering more or less the same slightly left of centre social democratic policies as they used to ( before tuition fees etc etc ). In the process following the 2011 election independence has been normalised.

It is quite possible if they insist upon their current tactics; no, I'm not suggesting immediately but it is nonetheless looking increasingly possible.

Their current tactics are giving them polling numbers and election results that all other political parties in the UK can only dream of.

These "younger voters" upon which it is said the SNP rely will begin to see the SNP for what they truly are; liars and dreamers with no solid plans. Many Scots are already well aware of this fact - hence (again as has been said before) why turnouts in Scottish elections are not higher.

Wishful thinking. Labour and the Conservatives rely on older and more traditional voters. This has been the case since 2007. The demographics of ever single poll taken in Scotland shows younger voters flocking to the SNP or Greens. Being into politics for younger voters, has also been normalised since 2011.

Of course, should EITHER Brexit prove to be a success or even to have little real impact on Scots, OR (as increasingly seems possible) if the Eurozone undergoes dramatic change then Scots will have even more to consider should independence be proposed.
The obvious outcome being uncertainty over the future and a "better the devil you know" stance rather than a leap into the unknown.

Conservative policies are very well known, both the horrific current path they are going down and historically. They are not 'better the devil you know' in most areas of Scotland and probably never will be. Is likely a second referendum will be pitched as strongly about having to put up with Conservatives in Westminster for a very long time as much as Brexit consequences are.

Again, there is absolutely no way that an independence vote for Scotland will happen before the UK leaves the EU.
As has been explained in great detail many times before in this thread.
Dreams of another indyref before Brexit are therefore just that; dreams.
The foolish proverbial stamping of feet over this issue and at this time is doing nothing to further the cause of independence.

The SNP pass the motion at conference, so do the Greens at theirs. Legislation presented at Holyrood.... voted through since the SNP and the Greens have a majority. Et voila, a referendum. You're trying to make this sound far more complicated than it is. In Holyrood a simple SNP/Greens vote will do it. Who's going to stop that happening at Holyrood ? You've never said.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Brexit will finish the independence argument for the foreseeable future, purely because of the hard brexit and the economic impact of splitting away from the Union and being hamstrung by EU trade policy.

The single market is not important to Scotland, not now, not in the medium term future....

I think we'll have to stop you right there with this sort of nonsense.

80,000 jobs depend on it the last report a few days ago said. 30,00 with a soft Brexit. Glad you're fine with airily waving folks livelyhoods away like that.

The Scottish economy would suffer a severe shock if the UK has a “hard Brexit”, losing up to 80,000 jobs and seeing wages fall by £2,000 a head per year, an economics thinktank has warned.

The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) has told the Scottish parliament that entirely leaving the EU single market – known as a hard Brexit – would see the Scottish economy decline by 5% overall, or by £8bn within a decade

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/06/hard-brexit-could-see-scotland-lose-80000-jobs-and-cost-2000-a-head

To be fair they did say rUk could come off a lot worse. Not that you'll be bothering with any of that listening to experts malarkey I should imagine.

Scotland's in for a tough time whatever happens in the next few years. Might as well at least 'take back control' of some of it rather than leave it it Liam Fox or David Davies.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

I would be interested to know what the SNP Plan B would be for Scotland if they find their Natland paradise separated from both the EU and the UK. Presumably all the previous arguments about the ability of the SNP Natland to do very well thank you with its new magic levers etc.; The trouble now for them is that all those arguments would apply for a Brexited UK which would have the additional advantages of much larger resources and having by then a set of agreed trade relations with the EU; so they do not sit comfortably with rubbishing Brexit.

EFTA most likely is Plan B, warmly welcomed as well. Sturgeon was in Iceland the other day. After independence the SNP are unlikely to be in charge for very long, they're only the vehicle to get there. Most of us understand that.

What was it Tommy Sheppard said ? 'Nothing changes the day after independence except the the power to change everything'. Powerful and succinct. They should use that in the next ref.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think we'll have to stop you right there with this sort of nonsense.

80,000 jobs depend on it the last report a few days ago said. 30,00 with a soft Brexit. Glad you're fine with airily waving folks livelyhoods away like that.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/06/hard-brexit-could-see-scotland-lose-80000-jobs-and-cost-2000-a-head

To be fair they did say rUk could come off a lot worse. Not that you'll be bothering with any of that listening to experts malarkey I should imagine.

Scotland's in for a tough time whatever happens in the next few years. Might as well at least 'take back control' of some of it rather than leave it it Liam Fox or David Davies.

So, you want to say that I'm spouting malarkey because experts have warned that risking 11% of Scottish trade risks 80,000 jobs. Right?

Then please explain to me why you would be happier risking almost 6 times that amount to realise your ideological goal?

I'm pretty sure everyone on here would be eager to hear that rationale. Have at it, the reasoning behind risking 6 times as many livelihoods must be logical dynamite.

Edit:

Thought I'd put it into focus, I did post the above quite late.

So...

Risking 11% of Scottish trade with the EU will risk 80,000 jobs.

80,000 / 11 = 7,273 (rounded) this gives you 1% of 'trade', I know it's inaccurate but it's just for a hypothetical number.

So if the rUK accounts for 64% of Scottish trade, and 1% of Scottish trade accounts for 7,273 jobs. We can extrapolate that risking 64% of trade with the rUK, Scottish people will be risking a whopping 465,472 jobs by splitting from the Union.

I feel we definitely need an answer from you as you seem to support - and I quote:

airily waving folks livelyhoods away

For approximately up to 465,472 people. Whilst claiming I'm bad in some way for believing that taking the view that 80,000 jobs are less important than nearly half a million. Surely it's you and the pro-independence supporters who are bad for advocating jeopardising the jobs of much of country, and with it the tax base of most of the country.

skintmacflint

Shakethedisease wrote: »

After independence the SNP are unlikely to be in charge for very long, they're only the vehicle to get there. Most of us understand that.

Sorry got to stop you right there with what appears to me to be just more SNP driven propoganda , to mislead voters into voting for Independence who dislike SNP. We've already witnessed that SNP with just 1 million votes won the majority of Holyrood seats in a proportional representative election which isn't easy. During the 2015 election they practically wiped the board with 1.4 million out of a total electorate of around 4 million.

Are you suggesting all these SNP voters are just going to magically switch to other parties. And if so which other political parties are you talking about. Are you suggesting all these new political parties are going to suddenly appear out of nowhere. And which other parties will have sufficient funds and efficient spin machines to compete against the party who would claim they won Independence, and are the only party with any experience of government.

Albeit it might not matter , because if Sturgeon gets her way to rejoin the EU, in 10 years time as the EU project advances, Scotland will be totally governed by the EU at all levels.

kabayiri

Politicians are amongst the most self centred of us.

Tory politicians are amongst the most self centred of politicians.

May's entire term in office will be defined by the success of the Brexit process.

I'm not sure any recent UK PM has faced such a big challenge.

Why would she risk this to be derailed for 8.5% of the population?

I'm all for Scottish independence if the majority want it, but I don't want it to hinder Brexit. There is plenty of time and political space after Brexit to resolve Scottish independence.