The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

ash28

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/711517/European-Union-members-block-independent-scotland-bid
Yes I know it's The Express but this is being so widely reported, & the only links so far point to either that or the Daily Star.

Meanwhile, I note that the Tories are campaigning on the streets against another referendum whilst only 200 "supporters" attend the George Square rally I mentioned earlier in this thread.
Far from the numbers expected to attend, and given "George Square has been a focal point for grass roots Yes campaigners since the 2014 poll" it does seem that support for another independence referendum is waning.
http://stv.tv/news/politics/1367364-independence-rally-to-mark-referendum-anniversary-held/
Ruth Davidson's comment:

Spain, Belgium, Italy and Romania have privately told the UK Government "they will not accept" a breakaway country joining the international club.And a senior Whitehall source revealed Hungary could also kill off the First Minister's dream of strolling seamlessly into the bloc.

The countries you mention all have independence movements of their own to contend with. Spain with Catalonia and the Basque region an ongoing issue, Belgium with Flanders an ongoing issue, Italy with the Venetian region (the old Republic of Venice) an ongoing issue. Romania has the Transalvanian problem, Hungary is part of that problem and it is an onging issue.

Most of those countries have more independence issues than I have listed but they are the main ones. I think the Spanish and Belgian movements are probably the most reported here. In Italy there is more than one region advocating independence, but Italy as we know it is a relatively new country, formed in the 1860s by the unification of the republican and city states. As D'Azeglio said; we have made Italy now we must make Italians.

The Romanian issue stems from the break up of the Austria-Hungarian empire post WW1, Transalvania became part of Romania in 1918, it had been part of Hungary. Most Hungarians will tell you Transalvania belongs to Hungary. From around 2011 Hungary has been dishing out Hungarian citizenship to ethnic Hungarians in other countries, Romania is one of those countries.

I suppose it depends on what happens here. If Scotland has another referendum and the outcome is a yes to independence which is recognised by the UK government then it will depend on what agreement Scotland will try to reach with the EU. If Scotland has to apply as a new member then any one of those countries could block Scottish accession. Would they? I have no idea.

Independence supporters will say no one will block Scottish entry as everyone in the EU is their friend and keen to have them join - is that true? In reality, probably not.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ash28 wrote: »

I suppose it depends on what happens here. If Scotland has another referendum and the outcome is a yes to independence which is recognised by the UK government then it will depend on what agreement Scotland will try to reach with the EU. If Scotland has to apply as a new member then any one of those countries could block Scottish accession. Would they? I have no idea.

Independence supporters will say no one will block Scottish entry as everyone in the EU is their friend and keen to have them join - is that true? In reality, probably not.

I generally agree even with the above; you clearly state some of the many unknowns there are.

Another unknown however is how Europe and the EU will look by the time this could happen, assuming a timeline of two years or more.
A number of EU member countries are soon to have elections and/or referendums of one sort or another - including the "major players" of both Germany and France.
Both of which are looking increasingly-likely to lead to substantial change in those countries and therefore within the EU as an organisation.
The EU two years hence may be a very different place to the EU of today, which can only make today's predictions (frankly) impossible.
No-one realistically predicted that the UK would vote to leave the EU; now at least some are saying that Le Pen has a chance in France and that Merkel will be "outed" in Germany for example.

Whatever happens, we are living in interesting times.
Let us hope that "interesting" does not turn into "disastrous" - which is indeed a possibility for the Eurozone.
Since "disastrous" would benefit neither ourselves or Europe.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Writing books is not the same as negotiation.

As for Salmond's remarks they are no more than one would expect but I'll comment on the second paragraph. He wrote " ... there is no sign at all that the Westminster Government has even the vaguest notion of its own overall strategy, never mind summoning the statecraft and the flexibility to meet Scotland’s

Just the normal spin - "there is no sign" --- has he not realised the amount of work that is being done? Of course he does, he has been in the HoC and knows the huge effort that is underway. He just chooses to sneer and peddle untruths.

The rest is the normal navel gazing stuff but I'm curious about one thing, what is the currency proposal that he made in the "second television debate"?

They were in the White Paper, several of them. However once the currency issue was seized on like a death grip it became increasingly difficult for anyone appearing in the media to present a 'Plan B'. Salmond crashed and burned the first debate for exactly this reason... but in the second one managed to reel off the other options.

I suspect next time round instead of sticking to just one preferred option for anything pertinent to independence and what comes next.. There will be several options for each, and from many different contributors. Overriding message being 'you choose' because that's the point of independence. At least, imo I think that's what Salmond was hinting at the other day.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Again?
Really?
Look, as I say in my original post:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=71308294&postcount=2967

After finally depositing my grandson with his parents I've been catching up properly. Apparently yesterday was a Tommy Sheridan 'Hope over Fear' type rally. The main one is today.

You were equating attendance at rallies with 'support for independence falling' and I'm still not really sure why anyone would ?

Shakethedisease

ash28 wrote: »

The countries you mention all have independence movements of their own to contend with. Spain with Catalonia and the Basque region an ongoing issue, Belgium with Flanders an ongoing issue, Italy with the Venetian region (the old Republic of Venice) an ongoing issue. Romania has the Transalvanian problem, Hungary is part of that problem and it is an onging issue.

Most of those countries have more independence issues than I have listed but they are the main ones. I think the Spanish and Belgian movements are probably the most reported here. In Italy there is more than one region advocating independence, but Italy as we know it is a relatively new country, formed in the 1860s by the unification of the republican and city states. As D'Azeglio said; we have made Italy now we must make Italians.

The Romanian issue stems from the break up of the Austria-Hungarian empire post WW1, Transalvania became part of Romania in 1918, it had been part of Hungary. Most Hungarians will tell you Transalvania belongs to Hungary. From around 2011 Hungary has been dishing out Hungarian citizenship to ethnic Hungarians in other countries, Romania is one of those countries.

I suppose it depends on what happens here. If Scotland has another referendum and the outcome is a yes to independence which is recognised by the UK government then it will depend on what agreement Scotland will try to reach with the EU. If Scotland has to apply as a new member then any one of those countries could block Scottish accession. Would they? I have no idea.

Independence supporters will say no one will block Scottish entry as everyone in the EU is their friend and keen to have them join - is that true? In reality, probably not.

Interesting from that 48 Yes/52 No % poll today in the Scottish Sunday Times.



I guess at the end of the day if there is a vote, it's a Yes and the EU say 'No way'.. in many respects it will be too late and the deed will be done anyway. EFTA would more than likely be the next port of call.

Imo the EU is only one factor which will dominate a future ref. Future Conservative governments is also going to be way up there regarding political concerns. There are many Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems who are having to grit their teeth at the moment, from the voters upwards. The below comment can't be comfortable for them to agree with. Certainly not in Scotland.

Deeply depressing that Scottish Labour and Lib Dems are talking up the governing of Scotland by English Tories of the right.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shakethedisease; "You were equating attendance at rallies with 'support for independence falling' and I'm still not really sure why anyone would ?"

You really can't see the relationship between numbers at a rally and support for the cause to which a rally relates?
Do you think the Chinese people considered this during their ill-fated democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in June 1989? Where hundreds (maybe above a thousand) were killed by Chinese Army tanks and rifles in a protest asking for more freedoms - freedoms which we in the UK incidentally take for granted.

From Wikipedia, just for one source amongst many:

Demonstrations are a form of activism, usually taking the form of a public gathering of people in a rally or walking in a march. Thus, the opinion is demonstrated to be significant by gathering in a crowd associated with that opinion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstration_(protest)

ash28

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Interesting from that 48 Yes/52 No % poll today in the Scottish Sunday Times.



I guess at the end of the day if there is a vote, it's a Yes and the EU say 'No way'.. in many respects it will be too late and the deed will be done anyway. EFTA would more than likely be the next port of call.

Imo the EU is only one factor which will dominate a future ref. Future Conservative governments is also going to be way up there regarding political concerns. There are many Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems who are having to grit their teeth at the moment, from the voters upwards. The below comment can't be comfortable for them to agree with. Certainly not in Scotland.

Interesting today that Ms Sturgeon has said:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14749853.Nicola_Sturgeon__Independence__transcends__Brexit__oil_and_the_economy/#comments-anchor

The case for full self-government ultimately transcends the issues of Brexit, of oil, of national wealth and balance sheets and of passing political fads and trends.”

I guess making the case that ultimately independence is ideological - which it is of course but you have to admire her for saying it, as it will probably scare a lot of people but on the other hand it will probably fire up a lot of others.

Obviously it's not die hard independence supporters she needs to galvanise but the no's and the don't knows and those independence supporters where that support doesn't transcend national wealth and balance sheets etc. As Medium Size Jock says interesting times.

islandannie

Here,s he rally in Glasgow Green in all it,s glory if you have some time to waste.
There are thous er hundr oh a good few dozen i suppose.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9366/yes-movement-rally-glasgow-green

A_Medium_Size_Jock

islandannie wrote: »

Here,s he rally in Glasgow Green in all it,s glory if you have some time to waste.
There are thous er hundr oh a good few dozen i suppose.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9366/yes-movement-rally-glasgow-green

Steady on ................. we'll be told soon that the angles were wrong & REALLY there were tens of thousands!
Heh, and this on a reasonably dry day - if it were the usual driech & drookit mid-September weekend how many would there be?

(I still note all the EU flags ............ not.)

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You really can't see the relationship between numbers at a rally and support for the cause to which a rally relates?
Do you think the Chinese people considered this during their ill-fated democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in June 1989? Where hundreds (maybe above a thousand) were killed by Chinese Army tanks and rifles in a protest asking for more freedoms - freedoms which we in the UK incidentally take for granted.

From Wikipedia, just for one source amongst many:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstration_(protest)

We'll have to agree to disagree there. I prefer, however flawed to base measurements on voting intentions on polling. I actually thought in the closing stages of the last campaign that time might've been better spent knocking doors than on gatherings like rallies.

Nice though they are to see happening.