The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

cells

elantan wrote: »

Actually we can


Even that idiot Darling finally admitted defeat on that subject

We can keep it in line with the rUK £

I didn't say you could not keep it, I said it would be a very very silly idea unless you literally want a cycle of deflation and depression in your country for a few generations.

Scotland needs $100 oil and gas prices and for them to get higher and higher as the resource depletes.100% not going to happen.

Or you need to devalue your currency by as much as 50%. Not likely but plausible.

Or you need to devalue your wages by as much as 50% via deflation. Impossible and not quick enough. Scots will migrate to England at a rapid rate making the position even worse for those that remain.


So the only plausible method is the Scottish pesco + devaluation or for Scotland to convert to the Euro at a very favourable rate.

With the economic plan being to draw in English businesses with the offering of 50% off wages/rents/premisses resulting in a few hundred thousand more full time jobs in Scotland decreasing the unemployment rate and increasing participation in the workforce. Also potentially with the devaluation Scotland might get more tourists from everywhere and England and more retail purchases from people outside scotland. Eg English folk might come up to scotland for a weekend and buy their stuff 30% off as the scots took a 50% paycut in £pound terms

cells

Generali wrote: »

The idiotic thing, okay one of the idiotic things, about the Yes campaign was this insistence that they use a shadow pound or the actual pound. It was like Greece or the ERM (to get closer to home) never happened.

Its far worse for Scotland due to the huge percentage of the economy that is oil and gas and the massive swings in that commodity

Scotland needs its own currency or as an alternative if oil is going to stay at this sort of level for the long term maybe maybe it might work if Scotland can bag a deal going into the Euro at a very good rate but why would the EU do this huge favour for Scotland?

Why incentivise your own businesses to leave the EU and go set up in Scotland thanks to the low Euro entry point? Back to the only option of a Scottish dollar/peso


Personally if I were Scottish and the option was independence but staying in the EU plus setting up the Scottish peco with a big devaluation (would naturally happen) I would consider it. With a devaluation Scotland could draw in a lot of business from England. Same language same legals good motorways and rail links to England but with wages/rents/premises costing 50% less. A free floating currency would surely see business flow to Scotland. It would pay its way via lower income per hour but more employed and more hours worked. Its not going to be a rich Norway but it would get by

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

TBH, with hindsight it's quite impressive that Yes got as close as it did. I mean that wasn't very close but still it should have been a shellacking rather than just a comfortable win for No.

How long do you think it will be until the penny drops with the hard core of Yes supporters that there isn't going to be another referendum for a very long time? I reckon the SNP can string them along for a decade easily. I feel quite sorry for them actually.

Boom, it'll start here. Scottish Labour really are going to have to decide soon. The penny is starting to drop, but it's been a long slow process since Johann Lamont's resignation in 2014.

Generali, I am sorry. But you have no idea of the real politics that go on within Scotland. You're still going on about 'hard core' SNP support like they're some sort of fringe party. The SNP, and independence support haven't gone anywhere, no one wants a referendum just to lose it. We're all perfectly happy to wait. What's left of Scottish Labour will start turning the turrets on their own mother party soon. Trident will make sure of that.

Oil prices are low. We know. But then again, not everything is viewed through your own oil price prism. There are other considerations to be made.





Currency and pensions will be set out clearly next time round. The SNP are not known for making the same mistakes twice. Scottish Labour won't either when it comes to it. Good luck with the Conservatives trying to sell the benefits of the union if they really do close the Clyde shipyards. They WILL need it.

zagubov

Generali wrote: »

TBH, with hindsight it's quite impressive that Yes got as close as it did. I mean that wasn't very close but still it should have been a shellacking rather than just a comfortable win for No.

How long do you think it will be until the penny drops with the hard core of Yes supporters that there isn't going to be another referendum for a very long time? I reckon the SNP can string them along for a decade easily. I feel quite sorry for them actually.

It's no credit to the Yes campaign that they got as close as they did. They were on 30% for a long time and needn't have changed.

It was the No campaign's to lose- and they very nearly did. By sheer incompetence they raised the Yes vote to 45%.

I'm completely underwhelmed by the No campaign's current handling of the UK and I'm pretty sure they've got a massive capacity to drop the union and maybe even break it.

The SNP need only produce an anodyne performance and are clearly getting good seats and supplies of popcorn to watch the westminster wondermen try to lead us all to our glorious prosperous future.

cells

Only way to go independent is with your own currency. not the pound not the euro and then to devalue that currency once in place.

That might work and were I Scottish I would look into it and consider it.

However how many normal Scots will vote to have their wages their savings their pensions and even the value of their homes transferred from £1 to 1 Scottish Peso where the Peso would devalue instantly by as much as 50%

Also how does the Scottish Government or the UK government force Scottish institutions (pension funds) to convert their £pounds gilts to ScottishPesos bonds when they know full well it will lose half its value on day 1?

Shakethedisease

cells wrote: »

Only way to go independent is with your own currency. not the pound not the euro and then to devalue that currency once in place.

That might work and were I Scottish I would look into it and consider it.

However how many normal Scots will vote to have their wages their savings their pensions and even the value of their homes transferred from £1 to 1 Scottish Peso where the Peso would devalue instantly by as much as 50%

Also how does the Scottish Government or the UK government force Scottish institutions (pension funds) to convert their £pounds gilts to ScottishPesos bonds when they know full well it will lose half its value on day 1?

They'll use the £ for a while to keep things on par and stable for Scotland and the rest of the UK. No one knows what Scotland will keep/take or get in negotiations on leaving the UK in terms of assets/debts.

Once the dust settles and when/if the two enconomies start diverging markedly due to differing economic policies then things will be looked at again. But there's no point in assuming that on a minute past midnight after a Yes vote currency will be an absolute immediate issue to be dealt with. Scotland can and probably will use the £ and match it as it has been regarding mortgages, interest rates, pensions etc until it needs to change in Scotland's best interests.

cells

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They'll use the £ for a while to keep things on par and stable for Scotland and the rest of the UK. No one knows what Scotland will keep/take or get in negotiations on leaving the UK in terms of assets/debts.

Once the dust settles and when/if the two enconomies start diverging markedly due to differing economic policies then things will be looked at again. But there's no point in assuming that on a minute past midnight after a Yes vote currency will be an absolute immediate issue to be dealt with. Scotland can and probably will use the £ and match it as it has been regarding mortgages, interest rates, pensions etc until it needs to change in Scotland's best interests.

so your view is that the current Barnet formula will keep on going post out vote for a number of years for Scotland to get its house in order?

Although it will be a slap in the face of the English to ask us to pay your bills for a few years while you move out slowly, we like you lot enough to possibly accept

But still a day will come when the English credit card will have to be cut up and independence put in place. When that day comes 2-3-4 years after the out vote what choice will you have but to move onto the Scot-Peso?


I am not sure going to the voters and saying dont worry we will sort out a new currency in 3 years time during which time the english will let us use their credit card will fill scots with a lot of confidence. You will still come up with the problem of having to convert 1 minute after midnight at some stage.

Generali

zagubov wrote: »

It's no credit to the Yes campaign that they got as close as they did. They were on 30% for a long time and needn't have changed.

It was the No campaign's to lose- and they very nearly did. By sheer incompetence they raised the Yes vote to 45%.

I'm completely underwhelmed by the No campaign's current handling of the UK and I'm pretty sure they've got a massive capacity to drop the union and maybe even break it.

The SNP need only produce an anodyne performance and are clearly getting good seats and supplies of popcorn to watch the westminster wondermen try to lead us all to our glorious prosperous future.

20% more Scots voted no than Yes in the best economic circumstances there are ever likely to be for Scotland to leave the Union. That was the chance and it's never coming back.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They'll use the £ for a while to keep things on par and stable for Scotland and the rest of the UK. No one knows what Scotland will keep/take or get in negotiations on leaving the UK in terms of assets/debts.

Once the dust settles and when/if the two enconomies start diverging markedly due to differing economic policies then things will be looked at again. But there's no point in assuming that on a minute past midnight after a Yes vote currency will be an absolute immediate issue to be dealt with. Scotland can and probably will use the £ and match it as it has been regarding mortgages, interest rates, pensions etc until it needs to change in Scotland's best interests.

If Scotland votes Yes, which won't happen because economics, but let's assume for a moment that they do, what on earth do you imagine are the circumstances where English voters say, "Ah yes MP representing me, the Scots have decided to quit the country, I would like a large part of my tax pounds spent on making sure that they leave as happily as possible"?

Personally, my attitude would be to tell my representative that if she wanted my vote next time around to make sure that the money was spent on educating my kids and keeping my family well not on paying for a bunch of free parking spaces in soon to be foreign hospitals and buying boxes for foreign babies.

HornetSaver

cells wrote: »

Scots will migrate to England at a rapid rate making the position even worse for those that remain.

Illegally, of course. The English politicians responsible for screwing up the UK would not be stupid enough to keep that border open on unfavourable terms.