The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Generali

elantan wrote: »

Keep the faith ? If you think indy in Scotland comes down to pure finances for everyone your sadly mistaken

Haha. What do you think will be the Yes clincher? The promise to close the NHS to pay for independence or to end the welfare state? That's the level of cuts that'll be needed with the oil price as it is.

I know that you lot "reject GERS" but most Scots don't seem to be as stupid.

cells

Generali wrote: »

Basing your entire future on the price of a "volitile" commodity always reaching record price highs was always going to be hiding to nothing.

I wonder how long this lot will keep the faith as year after year grinds past without a sniff of another referendum? The SNP is getting comfy with a share of power now and the perks that come with it. There's no pressure for a referendum from that side.

It seems so funny now. Not only was oil going to go from $100 to $300 as the wells depleted but the scots were going to set up a trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund like Norway :T

Generali

cells wrote: »

It seems so funny now. Not only was oil going to go from $100 to $300 as the wells depleted but the scots were going to set up a trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund like Norway :T

TBH, with hindsight it's quite impressive that Yes got as close as it did. I mean that wasn't very close but still it should have been a shellacking rather than just a comfortable win for No.

How long do you think it will be until the penny drops with the hard core of Yes supporters that there isn't going to be another referendum for a very long time? I reckon the SNP can string them along for a decade easily. I feel quite sorry for them actually.

elantan

Generali wrote: »

Haha. What do you think will be the Yes clincher? The promise to close the NHS to pay for independence or to end the welfare state? That's the level of cuts that'll be needed with the oil price as it is.

I know that you lot "reject GERS" but most Scots don't seem to be as stupid.

I will be honest I don't know what the clincher will be ... but to paraphrase my hero

It will be like an elephant in your living room, your not quite sure what it is but you know it has arrived

cells

elantan wrote: »

Keep the faith ? If you think indy in Scotland comes down to pure finances for everyone your sadly mistaken

If Scotland adopted its own currency you would have more of a chance.

The Scottish dollar would fall against the pound until your exports and imports were about equal.

There would be a bout of inflation and a crash in the value of your Scottish dollars. in real terms scots would be poorer (you could always blame that on the English) but things would more or less function.

if you adopted the euro at some favourable level that too might work. Something like £1 to 1Euro. So someone earning £30,000 would the day after independence get paid 30,000 Euros.
That would be a 20% devaluation and encourage more exports and less imports. Again you would get a burst of inflation and people would be poorer but it would be easier to do that than ask people to take a pay cut of 20%. Actually I think you might need closer to £1 to 0.8 Euro but that would be a lot harder than convincing the scots to go for a 1:1 switch.

With a 40% devaluation Scotland could possibly export more and import less. Maybe the economy could grow from that point as businesses go up to scotland to make use of the 40% cheaper labour and rents

cells

Generali wrote: »

How long do you think it will be until the penny drops with the hard core of Yes supporters that there isn't going to be another referendum for a very long time? I reckon the SNP can string them along for a decade easily. I feel quite sorry for them actually.

I recall listening to or reading Alex Samon saying that if England played hard ball post leave vote he would turn the scottish wind mills powering England off. That told me that the man and his advisors are total idiots and they may well be advised by similar loony toons on economic policy


I think they can make a go of independence. But instead of a socialist high tax high spend the oil will pay for everything dream they would need to devalue and work hard to earn a living and perhaps swing right with low taxes low spending. Join the Euro at a very favourable rate or introduce a scottish peso. If the English are good enough to allow a free trade zone with Scotland then the 50% (or whatever) devaluation can draw some businesses up north to make use of the 50% cheaper labour and rents and premises.

Even if that will work is debatable because companies can at the moment go to a low wage EU nation like Bulgaria but they dont. I think it would work for the scots since England and Scotland are so interconnected and a number of English businesses will go north post devaluation.

elantan

From memory we plan on having smackaroonis


Nae need for a dollar

I think the plan was always to have our own currency through time, not straight away as the £ would suffer, but eventually after maybe 5 or 10 years our own currency, till then though we could accept the £

cells

elantan wrote: »

From memory we plan on having smackaroonis


Nae need for a dollar

I think the plan was always to have our own currency through time, not straight away as the £ would suffer, but eventually after maybe 5 or 10 years our own currency, till then though we could accept the £

you cant accept or use the pound for 10 years because if oil falls from $110 to $30 as it did that would result in the government having to make a very quick large cuts in spending and big increases in taxation to make up the difference.

Not that I have spent a lot of time thinking it through but all I can see as plausible is that you convert very quickly (within months) to the Euro or the Peso at a very advantageous rate effectively a big devaluation.

with the devaluation and given time the Scottish economy should boom as English and some EU businesses set up in Scotland to make use of the 50% cheaper labour/rent/premises.

Of course as businesses come to Scotland the pesco would rise or if the Euro was adpoted wages in euros will rise but it will be below the current level but above the 50% devaluation.

would that idea work?
I am not sure
But it seems plausible
Keeping the pound or entering the Euro at 1.3 on the other hand will cause you guys lots of job losses lots of pain and higher taxes and lower services a proposition no one would want to vote for

elantan

Actually we can


Even that idiot Darling finally admitted defeat on that subject

We can keep it in line with the rUK £

Generali

cells wrote: »

you cant accept or use the pound for 10 years because if oil falls from $110 to $30 as it did that would result in the government having to make a very quick large cuts in spending and big increases in taxation to make up the difference.

Not that I have spent a lot of time thinking it through but all I can see as plausible is that you convert very quickly (within months) to the Euro or the Peso at a very advantageous rate effectively a big devaluation.

with the devaluation and given time the Scottish economy should boom as English and some EU businesses set up in Scotland to make use of the 50% cheaper labour/rent/premises.

Of course as businesses come to Scotland the pesco would rise or if the Euro was adpoted wages in euros will rise but it will be below the current level but above the 50% devaluation.

would that idea work?
I am not sure
But it seems plausible
Keeping the pound or entering the Euro at 1.3 on the other hand will cause you guys lots of job losses lots of pain and higher taxes and lower services a proposition no one would want to vote for

The idiotic thing, okay one of the idiotic things, about the Yes campaign was this insistence that they use a shadow pound or the actual pound. It was like Greece or the ERM (to get closer to home) never happened.