The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're saying most voters in Scotland voted to Remain for the sole reason of another referendum ? Not just because they, like 48% of combined UK voters, just wanted the UK to stay as part of the EU ?

See above. You're trying to punt an assumption that Scots voters only voted to Remain based on the premise of another referendum. While completely missing that voters from all other parties in Scotland also voted as a majority to remain. In fact SNP voters had the highest Leave vote share amongst them. Doesn't stack up.

I believe they are re weighting towards likelyhood to vote taking into account age and previous voting behaviours. They vastly overestimated the number of young Labour voters during the last GE who would actually turnout to vote on the day. Possibly the same in the EU referendum too. So are now in my opinion quite rightly giving more weight now to older and non-Labour/right voters in England. But are using the same model in Scotland barring a few tweaks where the same weightings would skew their previous excellent performances in both the Scottish referendum and the GE more towards older, non-SNP/Green voters. I think the last survey they did 50% of respondents were over 50 ( happy to be corrected ) and the other age groups weighted up or down accordingly.

Polling has been in flux since the GE. The EU ref result has exacerbated matters. Folly to take any of them at face value at the present time. Though I agree they are the best rough guide we have.

At least 45% would be happy to go to the polls tomorrow. So we'll have to agree to differ on both that, and any backlash that Ruth Davidson thinks would arise from a Westminster refusal. New referendum legislation is some months away yet.

I'm not putting the assumption across that all voters who voted remain in Scotland did so to gain another independence referendum.

You've interpreted that from what I actually said. Which is basically to not discount that these people exist.

I'm not arguing or attacking, I just wanted to be clear that what you've interpreted isn't what I said (in my view) or intended (in general).

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Certainly if it was a large majority of a high turnout in a legal referendum, but not for the 50.1% (I think it was) that you mentioned some posts back. But things would not be that simplistic.

A majority is a majority. There will be no rerun of 1979.

During the passage of the Scotland Act 1978 through Parliament, an amendment introduced by Labour MP George Cunningham added a requirement that the approval at the referendum be by 40% of Scotland's total registered electorate, rather than by a majority.[2]

The result was a narrow majority in favour of devolution. A total of 1,230,937 (51.6%)[2] voted at the referendum in favour of an Assembly, a majority of about 77,400 over those voting against. However, this total represented only 32.9% of the registered electorate as a whole.[2] The Labour government accepted that the Act's requirements had not been met, and that devolution would therefore not be introduced for Scotland.

Long memories, especially for the SNP on this one.

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

A majority is a majority. There will be no rerun of 1979.

Long memories, especially for the SNP on this one.

Selective memory you mean. Remember the last "for a generation" Referendum.

Things are not as simple as you seem to think, but keep going up that hill.

TrickyTree83

.string. wrote: »

Selective memory you mean. Remember the last "for a generation" Referendum.

Things are not as simple as you seem to think, but keep going up that hill.

If there was a referendum, legal or no, it genuinely is more difficult this time round than in 2014.

I struggle to see how if a majority wasn't possible under reasonable to favourable conditions that anyone would expect the opposite result under unfavourable to dangerous conditions.

Something that was said earlier about the demographics being on the side of independence, if that is true, why the rush? Eventually you'll get what you wish for.

If you have another referendum so soon the channels that the pro-independence movement have to navigate now are fraught with dangerous unknowns and possible catastrophe that you could well lose and consign your movement to the doldrums for 50 years or more. By which time the tide of opinion could well be against you even more so than now as your demographic bonus will be in retirement, or worse.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

It seems that the SNP have yet to formalise the local authority boundaries, ready for next year's council elections.
The review started February 2014 & wards/seats were formally tabled earlier this year ........... but still have not been formalised.
http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2016/09/snp-running-out-of-time-to-sort-council-boundaries/

So all this talk of another iScotland vote could take how long to organise based on the above?
Another two years or more, then?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

A good piece here on the SNP's National Survey.

You will see what a sophisticated political party can do with the information you unknowingly donate to them.

https://mercinon.wordpress.com/

TrickyTree83

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

A good piece here on the SNP's National Survey.

https://mercinon.wordpress.com/

That is SHOCKING, I should move to California and get paid a wedge to teach them how to make surveys that aren't open to fraudulent submission.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

If there was a referendum, legal or no, it genuinely is more difficult this time round than in 2014.

I struggle to see how if a majority wasn't possible under reasonable to favourable conditions that anyone would expect the opposite result under unfavourable to dangerous conditions.

Something that was said earlier about the demographics being on the side of independence, if that is true, why the rush? Eventually you'll get what you wish for.

If you have another referendum so soon the channels that the pro-independence movement have to navigate now are fraught with dangerous unknowns and possible catastrophe that you could well lose and consign your movement to the doldrums for 50 years or more. By which time the tide of opinion could well be against you even more so than now as your demographic bonus will be in retirement, or worse.

I disagree. The start off point last time was about 28-30%.

There is an argument to be made that going too soon would have another referendum off the table for possibly decades. I would argue on the other hand that not going for it now could result in the same. If we look at the situation now..

1) There is no guarantee of a pro independence majority of in 2021.
2) The polls are hovering around 50/50 and within margin of error territory.
3) Support for independence hasn't tailed off as expected after 2014
4) 62% voted to remain in the EU
5) There is a Conservative govt looking like being around for a long time.
6) Labour won't touch any part in any BetterTogether type activities next time round with a bargepole.
7) No last minute Vow's possible and the last one fell far short of expectations raised at the time.
8) During the latter stages of the last referendum No managed to lose a 20 point lead.
9) The EU haven't said No.
10) The Yes campaign is already up and preparing for a referendum not even announced yet or certain to occur.

The above are a pretty favourable set of circumstances for any second referendum, held before 2021 but after Article 50 is triggered. Last pieces in the puzzle will be down to the EU and whatever Theresa May goes for concerning rUK's Brexit stance. It's former Labour No voters who voted remain and can't stomach the thought of the next 10 years of Conservative governance, as well as EU nationals who will tip the balance either way. Those are the people the SNP are trying to reach with their survey. Not already convinced No or Yes voters.

There were 514,000 voters still voting Labour in May 2016 and 170,000+ EU nationals living in Scotland. The Yes campaign needs 200,000 to change their minds.

.string.

There were 514,000 voters still voting Labour in May 2016 and 170,000+ EU nationals living in Scotland. The Yes campaign needs 200,000 to change their minds.

It is, of course, monstrous that EU Nationals should get to vote on matters affecting either the UK or Scotland.

This was challenged before but fizzled out for some reason, so this question is to the Unionists here : is there any action in Scotland to stop this outrage?

Come to that, is there any activity in Scotland to allow Scots in the rest of the UK to vote?

If there is not, then there should be, in my opinion.

CLAPTON

seems OK to me that foreigners can vote for iscotland : after all they won't have the best interests of scotland as their main concern