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The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

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Comments

  • Shakethedisease
    Shakethedisease Posts: 7,006 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Photogenic
    edited 9 September 2016 at 1:37AM
    I don't feel polls have a bearing on what I'm saying regarding the correct context of the EU referendum question that the people were asked. I'm not following where you're going with that I'm afraid.
    You were talking of 2014, where for an entire three years Scots were told 24/7 in every conversation and every single media report going BBC/SKY all the newspapers etc. That a Yes vote would have Scotland out of the EU. And here we are two years later anyway after a No vote.
    And i was referring primarily to the situation people in Scotland now face rather than what they had faced, we know how they voted
    Most people assumed a Remain vote UK wide. The bookies, the polls, Cameron, even Brexit voters truth be told. There was no narrative fed to the Scots any more than the rest of the UK that Leave might win. In fact we were all a little bored with it all since all party leaders in Scotland were for Remain. Sturgeon's position however, hadn't changed since the EU ref was announced back in 2015. Scots voters endorsed it in 2016.

    Scots voted how they voted despite thinking it would be a Remain vote anyway. The situation facing them now is one not of their making. I think that might irk a bit.
    Regarding the people of Scotland and another referendum, neither you or I can possibly claim to know the intentions of voters, the closest we can get is polls. They show a very poor appetite for another referendum.
    The polls are flawed and keep getting it wrong. It would be folly to put too much faith in them. Especially when YouGov are missing out eligible voters (16/17 year olds ) and possibly EU nationals. My personal opinon is that YouGov in an attempt to counter how much they got the GE and the EU ref wrong, have started weighting in the right direction for England. Where for the GE/EU vote they put too much weight on left leaning voters who didn't turn out to vote in the end. But the wrong one in Scotland... because there are far more in the way of left leaning voters who do who actually turn out to vote ( right wing voters over represented ). Ruth Davidson's approval ratings being a case in point. But that's only my own view.

    Def time for a Scottish only polling company which focuses on Scottish particular voting patterns. However, hand on heart, if there's a refusal from Westminster over a second referendum..it will only serve to potentially boost independence support off the charts . Even Ruth Davidson knows that to be the case.

    3 July 2016
    Ruth Davidson has said that she would advise the next Prime Minister not to block a request by Nicola Sturgeon for a second independence referendum in the wake of the vote for Brexit..
    Sources close to the Scottish Tory leader argued that doing so would provoke a massive public backlash in Scotland that could further drive up support for separation.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/ruth-davidson-next-pm-should-not-block-scottish-independence-ref/
    It all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
    But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?
  • You were talking of 2014, where for an entire three years Scots were told 24/7 in every conversation and every single media report going BBC/SKY all the newspapers etc. That a Yes vote would have Scotland out of the EU. And here we are two years later anyway after a No vote.

    Still not following what polls have to do with people who voted to remain because of the SNP manifesto pledge or the actual question that was asked in the 2016 EU referendum. Sorry.
    Most people assumed a Remain vote UK wide. The bookies, the polls, Cameron, even Brexit voters truth be told. There was no narrative fed to the Scots any more than the rest of the UK that Leave might win. In fact we were all a little bored with it all since all party leaders in Scotland were for Remain. Sturgeon's position however, hadn't changed since the EU ref was announced back in 2015. Scots voters endorsed it in 2016.

    Since the UK government would not change the format of the referendum to one the SNP supported, they put that 'material change' pledge in their manifesto. You say there was no narrative, I say it would have been near to impossible to have kept such a narrative down given the height of publicity of the EU referendum, plus the Scottish government elections just prior. People would have been well aware of the option to vote to remain for a chance at indy2. A vote to leave the EU sure as hell wouldn't have granted a new referendum would it?
    Scots voted how they voted despite thinking it would be a Remain vote anyway. The situation facing them now is one not of their making. I think that might irk a bit.
    The polls are flawed and keep getting it wrong. It would be folly to put too much faith in them. Especially when YouGov are missing out eligible voters (16/17 year olds ) and possibly EU nationals. My personal opinon is that YouGov in an attempt to counter how much they got the GE and the EU ref wrong, have started weighting in the right direction for England. Where for the GE/EU vote they put too much weight on left leaning voters who didn't turn out to vote in the end. But the wrong one in Scotland... because there are far more in the way of left leaning voters who do who actually turn out to vote ( right wing voters over represented ). Ruth Davidson's approval ratings being a case in point. But that's only my own view.

    Def time for a Scottish only polling company which focuses on Scottish particular voting patterns.

    I don't think Scots voted without being aware of the SNP manifesto pledge. Therefore we cannot rule out its influence on the outcome of an individuals vote. There is - I want to use the word testimony but it's only in a newspaper - evidence, regarding a pro-independence & anti-EU voter in Lossiemouth if you recall. He went on record to say that although he wanted to leave the EU, he was torn because as a pro-indy supporter he felt he should vote to remain to have another crack at independence.

    You believe that YouGov are weighting polls for a pro-Union/right wing stance? Do you have any evidence that I can look at that demonstrates this?
    However, hand on heart, if there's a refusal from Westminster over a second referendum..it will only serve to potentially boost independence support off the charts . Even Ruth Davidson knows that to be the case.

    3 July 2016 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/ruth-davidson-next-pm-should-not-block-scottish-independence-ref/

    It'll rile up some people. I wouldn't have thought it would be enough to translate into large percentage swings.

    However - there's no evidence for this backlash. It's just a hypothesis, one shared by Ruth.

    Based on the polling data I would suggest that Scots would breath a sigh of relief that yet another referendum will not be taking place.
  • Tromking
    Tromking Posts: 2,691 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    “Britain- A friend to all, beholden to none”. 🇬🇧
  • mrginge
    mrginge Posts: 4,843 Forumite
    Remember though Tromking, that the EU are going to simply guarantee Scottish EU membership without bothering to discuss it with their members or work out any numbers beforehand.
    They are going to do this to !!!! off the UK government and to put their own economies at risk.
    They are going to do this before they know what assets their new member will be in control of after they leave the UK.
    They will do this despite not knowing what currency is going to be used and what debts that country will have.
    They will do this despite historically never taking such an approach before.

    But of course I could be wrong, after all Nicola did go and meet a handful of random EU people for tea and scones one afternoon in July :rotfl:
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    mrginge wrote: »
    Remember though Tromking, that the EU are going to simply guarantee Scottish EU membership without bothering to discuss it with their members or work out any numbers beforehand.
    They are going to do this to !!!! off the UK government and to put their own economies at risk.
    They are going to do this before they know what assets their new member will be in control of after they leave the UK.
    They will do this despite not knowing what currency is going to be used and what debts that country will have.
    They will do this despite historically never taking such an approach before.

    But of course I could be wrong, after all Nicola did go and meet a handful of random EU people for tea and scones one afternoon in July :rotfl:

    well, given the way the EU has corruptly welcomed Greece, Romania, Bulgaria etc and frequently breaks its own economic rules for political ends, Nicola is being entirely realistic.
  • CLAPTON wrote: »
    well, given the way the EU has corruptly welcomed Greece, Romania, Bulgaria etc and frequently breaks its own economic rules for political ends, Nicola is being entirely realistic.

    It's her moment in the spotlight.

    After leaving the EU has been concluded she'll be relegated back down to an important person in Scotland rather than a geopolitical player in Europe.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    It's her moment in the spotlight.

    After leaving the EU has been concluded she'll be relegated back down to an important person in Scotland rather than a geopolitical player in Europe.

    possibly, but look what happened to the PM of Luxenbourg
  • CLAPTON wrote: »
    possibly, but look what happened to the PM of Luxenbourg

    That's a case of 'jobs for the boys'. The EU has ever been thus.
  • Herzlos
    Herzlos Posts: 16,063 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    Given we had a 'remain' government that forbad the civil service etc to work on brexit proposal until after 23th JUne, what would you realistically expect a well argued brexit position to take to formulate?

    Some time before the referendum, just like the SNP managed. Ideally by someone who was campaigning for Brexit. Why have those opposed to it write up the plans?
    Remember that Scotland still doesn't have a view on what currency to use after 30 years of planning.
    It does. I've linked you to it twice.
    Or consider that the UK asked the EU to allow us to reduce the tampon tax about 9 months ago without any result so far.
    What's that got to do with anything?
    My personal view is that a reasonably comprehensive position will take a year or so, assuming full co-operation of the EU.

    Why?

    What progress have we made so far? We still know nothing.

    At this stage, plan wise, I'd settle for some doodles on a napkin.
  • .string.
    .string. Posts: 2,733 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 9 September 2016 at 1:48PM
    We already know Westminster won't sanction a second referendum, that's taken as read. Won't stop the SNP/Greens asking for it though... being refused.. independence support shooting up markedly as a consequence.. then an advisory one like the EU referendum being held anyway. Be careful what you wish for.

    Oooh I remember that being said a lot in 2014 too. Labour really bought into that concept back then.
    Refusing a referendum can take different forms Shakey, there are good reasons for refusal, as Sturgeon would find out if she marches her wee army up to the top of the hill. As for there being an ibounce as a result, that would be at the bottom of the hill afterwards.
    Union, not Disunion

    I have a Right Wing and a Left Wing.
    It's the only way to fly straight.
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