The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Former Scottish First Minister says that there will be no independence vote for at least five years "because Nicola won't win".

McLeish, a professional soccer player before becoming a politician, dismissed an SNP campaign launched last week to survey Scots' desire for independence as a "delaying" ruse to win the SNP time while Britain's new trading and political partnerships are worked out,

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-scotland-independence-idUKKCN11F16V

.string.

mrginge wrote: »

Remember though Tromking, that the EU are going to simply guarantee Scottish EU membership without bothering to discuss it with their members or work out any numbers beforehand.
They are going to do this to !!!! off the UK government and to put their own economies at risk.
They are going to do this before they know what assets their new member will be in control of after they leave the UK.
They will do this despite not knowing what currency is going to be used and what debts that country will have.
They will do this despite historically never taking such an approach before.

But of course I could be wrong, after all Nicola did go and meet a handful of random EU people for tea and scones one afternoon in July :rotfl:

You parody it well, although it seems that the tea and scones plan convinced a lot of the SNP Collective!

I'm tempted to amuse myself by adding to the list, but will just mention the consequences of an illegal referendum legally challenged at several levels and declared invalid by the UK. A UDI afterwards? Would the SNP really do that to the Scottish people, cast adrift with no funding for Westminster, civil unrest and so on?

I can only imagine that the whole story is part of a super whinge strategy, mixed with an infantile (apparently that word is allowable, but deluded is not) hope that May will cave in to Sturgeon's wish list.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Still not following what polls have to do with people who voted to remain because of the SNP manifesto pledge or the actual question that was asked in the 2016 EU referendum. Sorry.


Since the UK government would not change the format of the referendum to one the SNP supported, they put that 'material change' pledge in their manifesto. You say there was no narrative, I say it would have been near to impossible to have kept such a narrative down given the height of publicity of the EU referendum, plus the Scottish government elections just prior. People would have been well aware of the option to vote to remain for a chance at indy2. A vote to leave the EU sure as hell wouldn't have granted a new referendum would it?

You're saying most voters in Scotland voted to Remain for the sole reason of another referendum ? Not just because they, like 48% of combined UK voters, just wanted the UK to stay as part of the EU ?

I don't think Scots voted without being aware of the SNP manifesto pledge. Therefore we cannot rule out its influence on the outcome of an individuals vote. There is - I want to use the word testimony but it's only in a newspaper - evidence, regarding a pro-independence & anti-EU voter in Lossiemouth if you recall. He went on record to say that although he wanted to leave the EU, he was torn because as a pro-indy supporter he felt he should vote to remain to have another crack at independence.

See above. You're trying to punt an assumption that Scots voters only voted to Remain based on the premise of another referendum. While completely missing that voters from all other parties in Scotland also voted as a majority to remain. In fact SNP voters had the highest Leave vote share amongst them. Doesn't stack up.

You believe that YouGov are weighting polls for a pro-Union/right wing stance? Do you have any evidence that I can look at that demonstrates this?

I believe they are re weighting towards likelyhood to vote taking into account age and previous voting behaviours. They vastly overestimated the number of young Labour voters during the last GE who would actually turnout to vote on the day. Possibly the same in the EU referendum too. So are now in my opinion quite rightly giving more weight now to older and non-Labour/right voters in England. But are using the same model in Scotland barring a few tweaks where the same weightings would skew their previous excellent performances in both the Scottish referendum and the GE more towards older, non-SNP/Green voters. I think the last survey they did 50% of respondents were over 50 ( happy to be corrected ) and the other age groups weighted up or down accordingly.

Polling has been in flux since the GE. The EU ref result has exacerbated matters. Folly to take any of them at face value at the present time. Though I agree they are the best rough guide we have.

It'll rile up some people. I wouldn't have thought it would be enough to translate into large percentage swings.

However - there's no evidence for this backlash. It's just a hypothesis, one shared by Ruth.

Based on the polling data I would suggest that Scots would breath a sigh of relief that yet another referendum will not be taking place.

At least 45% would be happy to go to the polls tomorrow. So we'll have to agree to differ on both that, and any backlash that Ruth Davidson thinks would arise from a Westminster refusal. New referendum legislation is some months away yet.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

The conundrum for Sturgeon and the SNP neatly summed up.
http://reaction.life/nicola-sturgeon-sensibly-runs-away-second-scottish-independence-referendum/?ts

She hasn't changed her stance at all. Referendum legislation is being drawn up as stated in Holyrood in front of all Scottish MSP's the other day. If that's running away, I don't know what going for it would mean.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Former Scottish First Minister says that there will be no independence vote for at least five years "because Nicola won't win".

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-scotland-independence-idUKKCN11F16V

Henry McLeish, former Labour First Minister ? I think he might want to check his predictions with the SNP and the Greens first. He has no inside knowledge.. though it seems he will possibly vote for independence when it comes to it.

Henry McLeish: Any lingering sense of Britishness, still held by many Scots, is being severely tested

Scotland also has to factor in the very complex web of issues and thinking that led to the Brexit victory. Much of the toxic Euro debate had very little to do with the EU but more to do with the diverging politics of Scotland and England, growing populism and a Trump like embrace of trickle down racism, zenophobia and English nationalism.

The politics of Scotland and England are diverging at an accelerating rate. This is an important new reality.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/comment/henry-mcleish-any-lingering-sense-britishness-still-held-many-scots-being-severely

He's a bit of a professional flip flopper and fence sitter these days.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

You parody it well, although it seems that the tea and scones plan convinced a lot of the SNP Collective!

I'm tempted to amuse myself by adding to the list, but will just mention the consequences of an illegal referendum legally challenged at several levels and declared invalid by the UK. A UDI afterwards? Would the SNP really do that to the Scottish people, cast adrift with no funding for Westminster, civil unrest and so on?

I can only imagine that the whole story is part of a super whinge strategy, mixed with an infantile (apparently that word is allowable, but deluded is not) hope that May will cave in to Sturgeon's wish list.

There is very little sense or ultimate purpose in Westminster trying to cling on to a Scotland where a majority of voters have expressed a will to leave. By the time we get to a second referendum, the SNP/Greens will only have been the vehicle to get to that point, after which it's the voters who will have their say.

If it does turn out to be a vote to leave the UK, realistically there's little Theresa May or Westminster could do but accept it.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I believe they are re weighting towards likelyhood to vote taking into account age and previous voting behaviours. They vastly overestimated the number of young Labour voters during the last GE who would actually turnout to vote on the day. Possibly the same in the EU referendum too. So are now in my opinion quite rightly giving more weight now to older and non-Labour/right voters in England. But are using the same model in Scotland barring a few tweaks where the same weightings would skew their previous excellent performances in both the Scottish referendum and the GE more towards older, non-SNP/Green voters. I think the last survey they did 50% of respondents were over 50 ( happy to be corrected ) and the other age groups weighted up or down accordingly.

Polling has been in flux since the GE. The EU ref result has exacerbated matters. Folly to take any of them at face value at the present time. Though I agree they are the best rough guide we have.

At least 45% would be happy to go to the polls tomorrow. So we'll have to agree to differ on both that, and any backlash that Ruth Davidson thinks would arise from a Westminster refusal. New referendum legislation is some months away yet.

That's a brilliant analysis however, as someone once said to me ....

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Do you have any actual evidence for that, or are you just taking wild stabs in the dark with your own opinion ? Genuine question.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Some time before the referendum, just like the SNP managed. Ideally by someone who was campaigning for Brexit. Why have those opposed to it write up the plans?


It does. I've linked you to it twice.


What's that got to do with anything?



Why?

What progress have we made so far? We still know nothing.

At this stage, plan wise, I'd settle for some doodles on a napkin.

what currency will scotland use after iscotland

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

That's a brilliant analysis however, as someone once said to me ....

I said in my own view in the post concerned. In my own view, means it's only my own view and I've provided my own take which led me to my own view. Geddit ?

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There is very little sense or ultimate purpose in Westminster trying to cling on to a Scotland where a majority of voters have expressed a will to leave. By the time we get to a second referendum, the SNP/Greens will only have been the vehicle to get to that point, after which it's the voters who will have their say.

If it does turn out to be a vote to leave the UK, realistically there's little Theresa May or Westminster could do but accept it.

Certainly if it was a large majority of a high turnout in a legal referendum, but not for the 50.1% (I think it was) that you mentioned some posts back. But things would not be that simplistic.