The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Sometimes I'm not sure we're having the same converstation.

So for a plan to be credible from the SNP, it needs to be ratified by everyone, and for a plan to be credible from Brexit, it doesn't even need to exist? Good to know there's no double standard going on.

If that's not what you're saying, then I've no idea what you're saying.

In what was, if any, is Brexit proceeding? That we might trigger A50 some time next year?

clearly you have never negotiated a half pint of lager in an alcohol manufacturering plant.

Given we had a 'remain' government that forbad the civil service etc to work on brexit proposal until after 23th JUne, what would you realistically expect a well argued brexit position to take to formulate?
Remember that Scotland still doesn't have a view on what currency to use after 30 years of planning.
Or consider that the UK asked the EU to allow us to reduce the tampon tax about 9 months ago without any result so far.

My personal view is that a reasonably comprehensive position will take a year or so, assuming full co-operation of the EU.

kabayiri

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

...
Just to go over it again, Scotland voted for the UK to remain in the EU, not for Scotland to be in the EU. So shouldn't the SNP be asking the people of Scotland if they consider the single market more important than the UK market before they take such a stance?

It was clearly a UK wide referendum.

There weren't separate referendums, by region, by age demographic, by gender, by income class, etc.

Scottish yes/no votes were pooled in absolutely the same way as London votes.

If the local question were "should Scotland leave the EU?" then I could understand it, but it wasn't.

Leanne1812

kabayiri wrote: »

It was clearly a UK wide referendum.

There weren't separate referendums, by region, by age demographic, by gender, by income class, etc.

Scottish yes/no votes were pooled in absolutely the same way as London votes.

If the local question were "should Scotland leave the EU?" then I could understand it, but it wasn't.

If the tables were turned and Scotland's vote had changed the outcome to a Remain win would the brexiteers in the rest of the U.K. quietly accept defeat even if their individual nations chose Leave?

Any brexiteers care to answer that honestly?

Without wishing to rake up old ground already covered, exhausted & ultimately not resolved Scotland chose a gov that had in its manifesto if material change such as brexit were to arise then a 2nd indyref could be on the cards. Add to that the threat of expulsion in 2014 from a Yes vote leaves quite a bitter taste for those who based their vote around that threat.

Tromking

kabayiri wrote: »

It was clearly a UK wide referendum.

There weren't separate referendums, by region, by age demographic, by gender, by income class, etc.

Scottish yes/no votes were pooled in absolutely the same way as London votes.

If the local question were "should Scotland leave the EU?" then I could understand it, but it wasn't.

I feel sorry for the 30/40% of UK citizens resident in Scotland who voted in good faith to leave the EU, and yet face the prospect of being dragged back in against their will.
Nicola Sturgeon really is the Queen of the people who agree with her.

Leanne1812

Tromking wrote: »

I feel sorry for the 30/40% of UK citizens resident in Scotland who voted in good faith to leave the EU, and yet face the prospect of being dragged back in against their will.
Nicola Sturgeon really is the Queen of the people who agree with her.

I do believe her government have a much greater % of supporters & voters than the current uk government.

kabayiri

Leanne1812 wrote: »

If the tables were turned and Scotland's vote had changed the outcome to a Remain win would the brexiteers in the rest of the U.K. quietly accept defeat even if their individual nations chose Leave?

Any brexiteers care to answer that honestly?
...

Yes. It would have to be accepted.

The Conservative manifesto commitment was to an UK wide referendum, just as the SNP manifesto committed to a Scottish referendum.

We got what we voted for in the GE.

TrickyTree83

Leanne1812 wrote: »

If the tables were turned and Scotland's vote had changed the outcome to a Remain win would the brexiteers in the rest of the U.K. quietly accept defeat even if their individual nations chose Leave?

Any brexiteers care to answer that honestly?

Honestly for me, yes. I was always teetering on the edge, 51%/49%, ultimately the thing that tipped me over it was their inability to reform and not allowing us to open up trade to the world without punishment.

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Without wishing to rake up old ground already covered, exhausted & ultimately not resolved Scotland chose a gov that had in its manifesto if material change such as brexit were to arise then a 2nd indyref could be on the cards. Add to that the threat of expulsion in 2014 from a Yes vote leaves quite a bitter taste for those who based their vote around that threat.

You've claimed that people voted in 2014 around the threat that Scotland would lose their status in the EU.

Could the same not also be said that people in Scotland voted for the UK to remain in the EU because in the SNP manifesto stated it would trigger another independence referendum? (there is evidence to support this which I posted previously)

The SNP, by putting that clause in their manifesto for the Scottish parliament elections gave themselves the ability to attempt to hold another independence referendum for sure. However what I said about the 2016 EU referendum question still stands.

The people of Scotland were asked if the UK should remain in or leave the EU. They voted for the UK to remain in the EU. All of the people who voted to remain in the EU did not automatically vote for independence because of this SNP manifesto. Nor did their vote indicate that they would be willing to put 64% of their trade at risk to the benefit of 11% of their trade.

These questions really should be ironed out before the SNP takes a stance, yet they have already done so, claiming the single market is of utmost importance when in reality that clearly is not the case.

Many of you have given them credit for taking an early stance, I say and I would think many in Scotland who didn't vote to remain in the EU to become independent would share the same view, obviously those who voted to leave the EU would have no problem with what I'm saying.

i.e. those people in Scotland who voted to leave the EU are getting what they want. So out of the 1.6m people who voted to for the UK to remain in the EU, how many of them are willing to sacrifice/put at risk the 64% of trade for the sake of the 11% with the EU? Not many I imagine.

Which would mean that the proportion of the vote that supports independence at the cost of remaining in the EU and risking 64% of Scottish trade is substantially lower than the 1.6m who voted for the UK to remain in the EU, and consequently substantially lower than required to win another independence referendum. The SNP have to hope that some of those who voted to leave the EU support independence more and don't mind risking 64% of their trade, and those that voted to remain in the EU also support independence and don't mind risking 64% of their trade.

That's a big ask.

As I said earlier, 2014 was a walk in the park for the independence movement compared to current circumstances. If Westminster says no referendum I don't think there will be a bounce in support for independence, since those who want independence already want it. Saying no to a referendum, according to the polls is what the Scottish electorate expect. Probably for good reason, this time its fraught with danger and difficulty.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Erm, no that is your position. YOU state that the EU will not negotiate.

You hold that view and seem almost pleased that it would result in serious economic consequences for Scotland. Do you hate the UK so much that you want your own country to suffer?

You just don't get it do you, a bad deal hurts all parties. Everybody else is moving towards compromise but you want to promote conflict because you see a short term benefit for independence polls. That's not only very selfish, but incredibly foolish if you care about Scotland's long term prospects.

I'm afraid it's yourself who's getting mixed up. While posting about how Scotland's economy will go down the tubes due to tariffs and borders going up.. you fail to realise that those same tariffs and borders would apply to rUK x 27/28.

A good trade deal for rUK when it comes down to the nitty gritty means a good deal also between Scotland and the rUK. That's not selfish, it's simple fact. I actually think May might possibly bottle the whole thing and take the single market/FOM option personally. But it should be very obvious by now that the EU aren't going to give much ground on this or any 'special deals'. For the also very obvious reason that it might encourage other EU members out the door too.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Honestly for me, yes. I was always teetering on the edge, 51%/49%, ultimately the thing that tipped me over it was their inability to reform and not allowing us to open up trade to the world without punishment.

You've claimed that people voted in 2014 around the threat that Scotland would lose their status in the EU.

Explicitly so. 24/7 for about 3 years.

Could the same not also be said that people in Scotland voted for the UK to remain in the EU because in the SNP manifesto stated it would trigger another independence referendum? (there is evidence to support this which I posted previously)

The SNP, by putting that clause in their manifesto for the Scottish parliament elections gave themselves the ability to attempt to hold another independence referendum for sure. However what I said about the 2016 EU referendum question still stands.

The polls were looking like a Remain win right up until the Sunderland result.

The people of Scotland were asked if the UK should remain in or leave the EU. They voted for the UK to remain in the EU. All of the people who voted to remain in the EU did not automatically vote for independence because of this SNP manifesto. Nor did their vote indicate that they would be willing to put 64% of their trade at risk to the benefit of 11% of their trade.

These questions really should be ironed out before the SNP takes a stance, yet they have already done so, claiming the single market is of utmost importance when in reality that clearly is not the case.

Many of you have given them credit for taking an early stance, I say and I would think many in Scotland who didn't vote to remain in the EU to become independent would share the same view, obviously those who voted to leave the EU would have no problem with what I'm saying.

i.e. those people in Scotland who voted to leave the EU are getting what they want. So out of the 1.6m people who voted to for the UK to remain in the EU, how many of them are willing to sacrifice/put at risk the 64% of trade for the sake of the 11% with the EU? Not many I imagine.

Which would mean that the proportion of the vote that supports independence at the cost of remaining in the EU and risking 64% of Scottish trade is substantially lower than the 1.6m who voted for the UK to remain in the EU, and consequently substantially lower than required to win another independence referendum. The SNP have to hope that some of those who voted to leave the EU support independence more and don't mind risking 64% of their trade, and those that voted to remain in the EU also support independence and don't mind risking 64% of their trade.

No one in the entirety of the UK knew what they were voting for in terms of trade. I wouldn't single the Scots out on that one.

As I said earlier, 2014 was a walk in the park for the independence movement compared to current circumstances. If Westminster says no referendum I don't think there will be a bounce in support for independence, since those who want independence already want it. Saying no to a referendum, according to the polls is what the Scottish electorate expect. Probably for good reason, this time its fraught with danger and difficulty.

Then you don't know the Scottish electorate. A Conservative Govt refusing a second referendum would be an absolute gift to the SNP or any Yes campaign. One of the best things they could ever hope for in terms of boosting support.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Explicitly so. 24/7 for about 3 years.

The polls were looking like a Remain win right up until the Sunderland result.

No one in the entirety of the UK knew what they were voting for in terms of trade. I wouldn't single the Scots out on that one.

Then you don't know the Scottish electorate. A Conservative Govt refusing a second referendum would be an absolute gift to the SNP or any Yes campaign. One of the best things they could ever hope for in terms of boosting support.

I don't feel polls have a bearing on what I'm saying regarding the correct context of the EU referendum question that the people were asked. I'm not following where you're going with that I'm afraid.

And i was referring primarily to the situation people in Scotland now face rather than what they had faced, we know how they voted.

Regarding the people of Scotland and another referendum, neither you or I can possibly claim to know the intentions of voters, the closest we can get is polls. They show a very poor appetite for another referendum.