The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

zagubov

baldelectrician wrote: »

Or by being part of an EU free movement zone (if Scotland were independent)

There is a free movement area between UK / Isle of Mann / Eire / Jersey / Guernsey

3 of these areas are not in the EU and Eire isnt in the 'Union'- so the opportunity to work in other parts of these isles isnt because all parts are in a 'union' its because there is a free movement area already.

You forget we're run by Theresa May, the woman who'll by her own admission be happy to go down in history as the person who broke up the British isles by putting a hard border in it.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I doubt we will see $100 barrels of oil anytime soon. Which makes her the past generation. As in the interim period the SNP will be judged on their management of the Scottish economy on merit. Nothing to suggest there's any great vision or concept as to how tackle the issues. Against a changing global backdrop.

The next referendum will be before the next Holyrood election in 2021, because after that there is no way to make sure that there will be two pro-indy parties holding the balance of power.

Before that, Theresa May and all the Brexit stuff will have to play out first for a while. Absolutely key will the be EU coming out with something solid on future Scottish, outwith the UK plans regarding Scotland in the EU. If at all one way or the other.

The SNP regardless are in power in Holyrood for the next five years. They can wait a little while yet.

Shakethedisease

Scottish Labour's problem in a nutshell. Getting too close to the Tories and borrowing 'votes' in Scotland a la the referendum. Interesting, well written article concentrating on Scottish Labour having to court Tory voters in order to win in Scotland. Worth a read.

This is reflected in current campaign imperatives. Last week, for example, Labour and Tory activists together narrowly defeated an SNP council candidate (the First Minister’s Dad, as it happens) by persuading local Tories to treat the election as a ‘unionist’ versus ‘nationalist’ one and give their second vote to the Labour candidate.

This tactic was successful (see the final round count in which the Tory 2nd vote was decisive). Here is the local Tory MSP celebrating Labour’s win – quite deliberately flagging the terrible expense for Labour of embedding in Scottish anti-Tory minds Labour’s common front with those very Tories. Labour’s success in Irvine West was the most pyrrhic victory since Heraclea.

Indeed, this self-harming Unionist/Nationalist strategy is the only reason Labour still holds its single Westminster seat. In prosperous Edinburgh South, previously Labour’s least safe seat in Scotland, Liberal Democrat unionists deserted their own party and saved the unionist with the best chance of beating the nationalists; this pattern was repeated precisely at the Scottish Parliamentary Election in 2016.

...Rather than even belatedly learn the lesson of this, though, the Scottish Labour leadership is now working closely with the Tories to ‘borrow’ unionist votes and thereby answer the question which defines Scottish politics – are you for or against independence? – by confirming that they are well and truly with the Tories. This is patently a disaster.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Corbynites see their present interests arguing both for a more Corbyite politics and a party independent of Corbyn. Perhaps it is the small matter of funding which is presently leading Scottish Corbynites to argue for ‘federalism’ or some such, rather than outright independence. Whatever it is, regular members need to get beyond them because that kind of language is just politicians gesturing to each other; they need your help. The only way Scottish Labour has any kind of future is if it answers the question honestly – independence or not?

http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2016/08/scottish-labours-existential-crisis-and-its-importance-for-independence/

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Absolutely key will the be EU coming out with something solid on future Scottish

The EU will do nothing as not a matter for them. The onus is entirely on an independent Scotland to negotiate and comply with the conditions of membership. Scotland presumably will adopt the Euro as a first step post independence. In order to start making the transition. Remaining linked to the British Pound when there's a divergence of economic policies wouldn't be helpful to Scotland. As austerity ( in terms of cost costing and structural reorganisation) has some considerable way to go yet.

Nellybee

Let the people of all the UK vote on Scottish Independence cant get rid quick enough .Sick to death of the poison dwarf Sturgeon .I live in the border area i am sure they dont want to change there money or go through border controls every time the come shopping into England .Why not just let them go without a vote , the amount of jobs that would come back to the rest of the uk would be welcome.I say get rid and fast lets rebuild Hadrians wall but this time put a large Electric Fence on top of it .;)

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The EU will do nothing as not a matter for them. The onus is entirely on an independent Scotland to negotiate and comply with the conditions of membership.

Scotland in the EU or out of it certainly does involve the EU. If there's a referendum coming up then the EU will certainly be expected to strongly indicate any plans for Scotland remaining post independence if it happens.

Scotland presumably will adopt the Euro as a first step post independence.

Is this piece of tosh still doing the rounds ? Scotland doesn't qualify for the Euro, and would take years to do so.

In order to start making the transition. Remaining linked to the British Pound when there's a divergence of economic policies wouldn't be helpful to Scotland. As austerity ( in terms of cost costing and structural reorganisation) has some considerable way to go yet.

Which makes this paragraph totally redundant. Scotland will go with it's own currency to start with, possibly linked to sterling but there are other options.

Shakethedisease

Nellybee wrote: »

Let the people of all the UK vote on Scottish Independence cant get rid quick enough .Sick to death of the poison dwarf Sturgeon .I live in the border area i am sure they dont want to change there money or go through border controls every time the come shopping into England .Why not just let them go without a vote , the amount of jobs that would come back to the rest of the uk would be welcome.I say get rid and fast lets rebuild Hadrians wall but this time put a large Electric Fence on top of it .;)

You'll be changing money at every border in the EU soon. You should start getting used to it now. At least in Scotland it'll just be the one border to worry about.

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The next referendum will be before the next Holyrood election in 2021, because after that there is no way to make sure that there will be two pro-indy parties holding the balance of power.

Before that, Theresa May and all the Brexit stuff will have to play out first for a while. Absolutely key will the be EU coming out with something solid on future Scottish, outwith the UK plans regarding Scotland in the EU. If at all one way or the other.

The SNP regardless are in power in Holyrood for the next five years. They can wait a little while yet.

Interesting - so SNP Party policy has changed from a Referendum attempt immediately article 50 is called. Now it's down to "EU coming out with something solid". That's pinning hopes on the back end of a donkey IMHO.

I always thought that Sturgeon had made a blunder in touting the indyref argument vis-a-vis Article 50. It always was a loose/loose situation.

• A sign of weakness
• Back to all blow and no action
• Wishfull thinking time

All these come to mind. Pleased I am.

So no guarantee of an SNP-led majority in 2021. Given the proportional representation form of Scottish election, that equates (not exactly but more or less) to a no guarantee of a vote for Indy. --- Interesting admission there Shakey..

.string.

Nellybee wrote: »

Let the people of all the UK vote on Scottish Independence cant get rid quick enough .Sick to death of the poison dwarf Sturgeon .I live in the border area i am sure they dont want to change there money or go through border controls every time the come shopping into England .Why not just let them go without a vote , the amount of jobs that would come back to the rest of the uk would be welcome.I say get rid and fast lets rebuild Hadrians wall but this time put a large Electric Fence on top of it .;)

That's not a scenario I like or even agree with. You forget that most Scots don't want it either.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Interesting - so SNP Party policy has changed from a Referendum attempt immediately article 50 is called. Now it's down to "EU coming out with something solid". That's pinning hopes on the back end of a donkey IMHO.

No, that's only my opinion. So you can wind that scenario back in. Article 50 being triggered will definitely start the wheels in motion though.

I always thought that Sturgeon had made a blunder in touting the indyref argument vis-a-vis Article 50. It always was a loose/loose situation.

No, I don't think so. The polls are sitting at 50/50 right now. Half the Scottish Labour party are incensed that Dugdale is acting like a headless chicken, decrying Corbyn and has nothing to say on the EU. It's only going to take a new pro-EU Scottish Leader who's more interested in fighting Conservatives than the SNP for the narrative to shift.

• A sign of weakness
• Back to all blow and no action
• Wishfull thinking time

All these come to mind. Pleased I am.

Wishful thinking is all your own. You've been predicting the imminent downfall of the SNP since 2013.

So no guarantee of an SNP-led majority in 2021. Given the proportional representation form of Scottish election, that equates (not exactly but more or less) to a no guarantee of a vote for Indy. --- Interesting admission there Shakey..

Not really. The SNP 2011 majority was a fluke of just enough FPTP seats plus the list seat formula to reward them with seats also. In 2016 the SNP did far too well in FPTP to gain much in the way of list seats. It's the way it works. Smaller parties are compensated for doing badly in FPTP. These much smaller parties include Conservatives and Labour.

There is no guarantee of anything with the D'Hondt system of voting. Which is kind of the point.

Anyway, the time to have a referendum ( if not sooner once Brexit scenario's come into focus ) is just after another Conservative win at Westminster. Was a mistake last time to have it just before a GE as (what was looking like) a very possible Labour win in 2015 got too entwined into the independence debate. In the next one, there will be no immediate prospect of that happening to distract Labour leaning voters minds. Just five more years of Conservatives at Westminster. Tempting... but no thanks to that, for a lot of them.