The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're mixing up party political voting with support for independence. They are two different things. The Brexit vote has a lot of previously hardline Labour and Conservative No voters re-evaluating their stances on independence ( with caveats of course ).. but they would still be Conservative or Labour voters in future Scottish elections.

Also, the likelyhood of long term Westminster Conservative governments will also have previous Labour No voters possibly rethinking things as we've already seen in Scotland. Attitudes are shifting very quickly and we now have high ranking Labour MSP's openly advocating possible full on UK federalism and/or support for a second referendum should it be put before Holyrood. Some also want the Scottish Labour party to split away from the main Labour party. These people however are no Scottish nationalists by any stretch of the imagination.

Where you're falling down on this is by putting the SNP in a box, and then assuming everyone else in your list would vote against independence. Brexit changed everything previous to it, and once you accept this to be the case, then you just might be able to see how the politics is working right now in Scotland.

Now there are huge considerations and challenges ahead, but they all hinge on what kind of Brexit the UK eventually looks like ending up with. If I can accept that support for independence will more than likely fall back to it's recent baseline in the event a Brexit would mean single market access/FOM. Then surely it's not difficult for you to accept that independence is more than likely to rise in the event that Scotland is taken out of the single market etc etc.

All of this, all of it, is speculative.

Do you agree with me?

It would also be speculative of me to assume that people who vote Labour are generally unionist, Conservative are generally unionist, Lib Dem are generally unionist, Greens are generally unionist, SNP are generally nationalist.

You keep saying I don't understand the politics of Scotland, and you keep saying that there is prevailing sentiment, or some kind of undercurrent of nationalism amongst previously staunch unionist voters because of Brexit, or because of the prospect of consecutive Conservative government. But there is no evidence for this. It will be speculation based either on your own opinion or on the opinion of the media or politicians. Not the general electorate. For us to know truly what the general electorate think/feel you'll need to have another referendum. Since Nicola doesn't want to call one straight away anymore I get the impression she's not as confident as you guys are on here.

There is no evidence of this swing to nationalism bar some polls you've shown, which are notoriously inaccurate (see EU ref, GE 2015) and also state at the same time that the people of Scotland do not want another referendum even if they have changed their minds that Scotland should be independent.

That's why I don't want to get into the politics of it because you, me and anyone else on here or in the wider world does not know the answer to what the real prevailing sentiment is. You'll claim to know because your echo chamber, your social circles and social media circles, the media you read and the research you read is automatically going to be biased, even if you do read the odd article or research paper against independence.

That's why I've focused on the economic argument because that appears to be more set than the political argument.

Edit: Nicola is probably waiting for the same thing I'll be waiting for RE: the political argument. Consecutive polls showing high proportions of support for independence and another referendum. The larger the poll the better too. At that point the economic argument really must be addressed by the SNP and other nationalists too.

elantan

Reading tricky treaty justify the UK leaving EU but Scotland not being independent from WM is hilarious fun to read... I've ran out of popcorn though so will need to go buy some more

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

All of this, all of it, is speculative.

Do you agree with me?

This IS a debate forum. Speculation is what we do when we post.

It would also be speculative of me to assume that people who vote Labour are generally unionist, Conservative are generally unionist, Lib Dem are generally unionist, Greens are generally unionist, SNP are generally nationalist.

Greens are generally nationalist in Scotland.

You keep saying I don't understand the politics of Scotland, and you keep saying that there is prevailing sentiment, or some kind of undercurrent of nationalism amongst previously staunch unionist voters because of Brexit, or because of the prospect of consecutive Conservative government. But there is no evidence for this. It will be speculation based either on your own opinion or on the opinion of the media or politicians. Not the general electorate. For us to know truly what the general electorate think/feel you'll need to have another referendum. Since Nicola doesn't want to call one straight away anymore I get the impression she's not as confident as you guys are on here.

There is no evidence of this swing to nationalism bar some polls you've shown, which are notoriously inaccurate (see EU ref, GE 2015) and also state at the same time that the people of Scotland do not want another referendum even if they have changed their minds that Scotland should be independent.

That's why I don't want to get into the politics of it because you, me and anyone else on here or in the wider world does not know the answer to what the real prevailing sentiment is. You'll claim to know because your echo chamber, your social circles and social media circles, the media you read and the research you read is automatically going to be biased, even if you do read the odd article or research paper against independence.

You don't want to go into the politics because you don't understand them. You're basing all of your own assumptions on the echo chamber you yourself inhabit. ie the UK media.

That's why I've focused on the economic argument because that appears to be more set than the political argument.

That's fair enough. But like in the EU referendum, the political arguments at some point overwhelm the economic stories.

Edit: Nicola is probably waiting for the same thing I'll be waiting for RE: the political argument. Consecutive polls showing high proportions of support for independence and another referendum. The larger the poll the better too. At that point the economic argument really must be addressed by the SNP and other nationalists too.

I think we'll wait until Theresa May makes her own first on what Scotland can expect by staying in the UK. Expecting Sturgeon to have a detailed economic plan off the basis of a vote a month ago is stretching the boundaries of reality at tad. Not when those that advocated a Brexit haven't an apparent clue between them. Double standards much ?

It warned the costs to Scotland of the UK leaving the EU were likely to be structural and long-lasting, citing the long-term impact on trade and investment and short-run damage from uncertainty and “financial volatility”...
...Meanwhile, the Conservative Government does not really seem much further forward in preparing for what are likely to be protracted and difficult negotiations with our long-suffering EU partners. Given the huge differences of opinion among Tories, as demonstrated by John Redwood’s declaration he wants “the full Brexit”, we should perhaps not be surprised it is not clear what it is exactly that the UK Government wants.

Prime Minister Theresa May offered her view this week that the model for the UK’s future ties with the EU may not mirror any of the existing relationships between non-member states such as Norway or Switzerland and the bloc. Mrs May talked about “looking at this with an open mind”.
This is all fine and well but there is hardly scope, given the emerging gravity of the economic situation in which the UK finds itself, to play with the time...

...Although Fraser of Allander believes any recession in Scotland is likely be brief, it has warned the picture could turn out even worse than predicted if the EU exit negotiations fail to make early progress. Other experts have issued similar warnings, in relation to Scotland or the UK as a whole.
Given the unshakeable impression those in charge of Brexit still have little by way of a credible plan, it would be a brave man or woman who would bet the big downside risks to the already grim economic forecasts will not crystallise.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14649744.Ian_McConnell__No_sign_of_Brexit_benefits_or_credible_plan_as_economic_woes_mount/


Full article at link. Too long to post.

TrickyTree83

elantan wrote: »

Reading tricky treaty justify the UK leaving EU but Scotland not being independent from WM is hilarious fun to read... I've ran out of popcorn though so will need to go buy some more

Go on then, regarding my position on the EU where does it differ from the position of Nicola Sturgeon?

If you've genuinely read about why I voted to leave you should be able to answer. I feel that you need to clarify this otherwise you're just having a pop at me on unsubstantiated grounds and sticking me into the same category of leave voter such as those who support UKIP.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This IS a debate forum. Speculation is what we do when we post.

Greens are generally nationalist in Scotland.

You don't want to go into the politics because you don't understand them. You're basing all of your own assumptions on the echo chamber you yourself inhabit. ie the UK media.

That's fair enough. But like in the EU referendum, the political arguments at some point overwhelm the economic stories.

I think we'll wait until Theresa May makes her own first on what Scotland can expect by staying in the UK. Expecting Sturgeon to have a detailed economic plan off the basis of a vote a month ago is stretching the boundaries of reality at tad. Not when those that advocated a Brexit haven't an apparent clue between them. Double standards much ?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14649744.Ian_McConnell__No_sign_of_Brexit_benefits_or_credible_plan_as_economic_woes_mount/


Full article at link. Too long to post.

RE: the politics of Scotland, you'll forgive me for not wanting to take the word of a self-professed expert on the voting intentions of the majority of the Scottish electorate when those who make a living out of it (pollsters) often get it wrong. It's much safer to assume that no one really knows and that the only true way to find out is to simply ask them. Anything else is just guesswork.

It's far too early to be expecting a plan on Brexit, but it was a failing of the Conservative government to not produce some loose plans in the event of a vote to leave. That said Nicola and the SNP will be acutely aware of the economic difficulties, especially since she ripped up the white bible Salmond produced because it was an utter joke. £500 better off, really? That's one of the more sensible things Nicola has done. If your #1 aim is independence you really ought to be on top of the argument for it, I would presume they're trying to work out a way to make it work at the moment. It's quite telling that they haven't come out with any solution since 2014.

Edit: Could be wrong about this but I recall Salmond saying you could sell off all of the assets you'd get as part of a break up of the UK after he lost the vote in 2014. That went quiet quite quickly though.

And the economic stories were the reason I voted to leave the EU. I don't see any benefit of having a seat/minority voice at a table that can't ratify free trade deals. I'd rather be able to have free trade with the EU and with the rest of the world, I'd quite happily take free movement of people into that bargain. I'm far from the xenophobe most remainers paint the leavers to be.

Just dug out this nugget...

Shakethedisease wrote: »

He said in an interview a few days ago that they're working on a far more robust economic case for any future referendum. I doubt they'll make the same mistakes again. Currency, and pensions will be front and foremost. Low oil prices acknowledged as not the best.

But now your claiming the SNP haven't been working on a more robust economic case?

I just don't know which Shakey to believe...

TrickyTree83

I think chewmylegoff was right.

chewmylegoff wrote: »

By all means go ahead and spend the next year or so repeating the previous thread, but for anyone who would like to know the outcome of this thread without waiting for 10,000 more posts to be amassed, let me summarise in advance for you:

Shakey, Leanne, and Etalan will interpret anything that happens between now and the end of this thread as evidence that (a) support for independence is increasing and (b) the economic case for independence is becoming stronger. There is literally nothing that the SNP could do which they would not view as a tactical master stroke on the road to independence.

Every opinion poll will be seen as positive for independence, even if it shows that the majority of scots do not want independence, or support for independence falling. Even another lost referendum in which only three people voted for independence would be a good thing for independence in their eyes.

By all means keep trying to convince them otherwise. I'm going to see whether I can get a monkey to type the complete works of Shakespeare instead.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Go on then, regarding my position on the EU where does it differ from the position of Nicola Sturgeon?

If you've genuinely read about why I voted to leave you should be able to answer. I feel that you need to clarify this otherwise you're just having a pop at me on unsubstantiated grounds and sticking me into the same category of leave voter such as those who support UKIP.

You voted leave and you think you have the same position on the EU as someone who was one of the strongest Remain campaigners during the referendum?:rotfl:

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

RE: the politics of Scotland, you'll forgive me for not wanting to take the word of a self-professed expert on the voting intentions of the majority of the Scottish electorate when those who make a living out of it (pollsters) often get it wrong. It's much safer to assume that no one really knows and that the only true way to find out is to simply ask them. Anything else is just guesswork.

It's far too early to be expecting a plan on Brexit, but it was a failing of the Conservative government to not produce some loose plans in the event of a vote to leave. That said Nicola and the SNP will be acutely aware of the economic difficulties, especially since she ripped up the white bible Salmond produced because it was an utter joke. £500 better off, really? That's one of the more sensible things Nicola has done. If your #1 aim is independence you really ought to be on top of the argument for it, I would presume they're trying to work out a way to make it work at the moment. It's quite telling that they haven't come out with any solution since 2014.

Edit: Could be wrong about this but I recall Salmond saying you could sell off all of the assets you'd get as part of a break up of the UK after he lost the vote in 2014. That went quiet quite quickly though.

And the economic stories were the reason I voted to leave the EU. I don't see any benefit of having a seat/minority voice at a table that can't ratify free trade deals. I'd rather be able to have free trade with the EU and with the rest of the world, I'd quite happily take free movement of people into that bargain. I'm far from the xenophobe most remainers paint the leavers to be.

Just dug out this nugget...

But now your claiming the SNP haven't been working on a more robust economic case?

I just don't know which Shakey to believe...

Note the date :-

Sun Mar 13, 2016

The Scottish National Party (SNP) will start building a new case for independence from the United Kingdom this summer, party leader and Scottish government head Nicola Sturgeon said on Saturday, without committing herself to a timeframe for a new referendum.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-scotland-idUKKCN0WE0QE

A more robust case for independence was due to be rolled out over this summer regardless of the Brexit vote ( which was widely expected at the time to be a Remain vote anyway) . There certainly are and currently being widely and openly discussed, plans that move us all forward from the same old 2014 plans that were.

Exclusive: Scottish Government "welcomes" new Scottish stock exchange

The comments were made in response to news that a group of former Nasdaq traders have submitted an application for approval to create Scotland’s first exchange since 1973.
The mysterious group has so far remained anonymous, saying only that more details about who is involved will be forthcoming if ‘Scotex’ receives approval.
A Scottish Government spokesperson told CommonSpace: “The Scottish Government recognise that stock exchanges are an important platform for companies to raise capital for growth investment, while also offering investors the opportunity to contribute to the development of listed companies.

http://scotex.uk/

A more robust case is being built. You just haven't noticed much of it yet and the wheels were in motion well before 23rd of June. The Brexit vote has expediated things along greatly thought I would imagine. But no one had any sort of economic plan for Brexit. Not the UK Govt nor the Scottish one. Any Scottish plan for leaving the UK depends on the UK's Brexit plan. So we'll need that one to become apparent first.

Most plans being suggested/discussed for the future are however, primarily to be found in pro independence media and blogs. You'll never find them on the BBC or the Express that's for sure. I actually gave up posting economic based articles from those type of sites and media outlets eons ago. There was no point. Other posters simply dismissed them due to where they appeared - usually just after quoting reports from the Telegraph or the Daily Mail incidentally.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/an-empty-quiver/

The foreign reserve fund of most western countries lies around 5% of GDP. Scotland’s GDP, according to GERS 2014-15, is £153.3 billion. 5% of this figure is actually just £7.7 billion, but I rounded it up to £10bn both for simplicity and to give a little bit of flexibility should anyone tell us that Scotland was just such a volatile and mismanaged economy that we’d need a bit more. Off the top of my head I can think of four ways that Scotland could begin life as an independent country and start life with the reserves we need.

ps If you do read it, for goodness sake don't read the comments underneath. You'll likely explode with rage and again, I'm only using the above as an example of what is being debated and put forward if you go looking for it. Not as any sort of gameplan or blueprint for the future.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I think chewmylegoff was right.

Lol, yes, but he forgot the people on the other side of the argument who are just as bad.

mollycat

beecher2 wrote: »

Scotland's civic nationalism couldn't be more different from that of UKIP.

Just because there is no argument that will convince you that independence is the right thing for Scotland, doesn't mean that there is no case for it. It just means you don't agree with it.

ALL nationalism is the same; it's just the tactics, spin and propaganda that's different.

Remember folks; the SNP are trying to wear UK down so that you guy's get fed up and say, "let them have their independance".

Which would be bizarre given such a small portion of Scot's want it:)

Don't fall for it; reject all Nationalism whether it's UKIP, SNP or NF.

BETTER TOGETHER!